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United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

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Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#331
post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely disagree with your analysis, but it's not really worth debating. > My question to you is why you see that as more of a risk than suicide? If I decide to kill myself, then I've died with consent. Might happen eventually-- maybe I'll have a bad health diagnosis or something-- I'm not concerned about the "risk".

> I completely disagree with your analysis, but it's not really worth debating. Ok! I think you're considerably overestimating the likelihood of needing to defend yourself with the type of gun you think you need. A bolt action 22 is enough for pretty much anyone, and we really need to weigh up whether the increased risk of handguns and assault rifles is worth their availability. > If I decide to kill myself, then I'v…

> Ok! I think you're considerably overestimating the likelihood of needing to defend yourself with the type of gun you think you need.

OK. I think you heavily overestimate your own level of knowledge and understanding on this topic.

> A bolt action 22 is enough for pretty much anyone,

This is a terrible defensive choice. It is unlikely to be available if needed, and doesn't work well at short-moderate range. Longer ranges are too far for credible self defense. Also, the lethality is limited; you're going to need to get lucky to stop someone from stabbing the fuck out of you.

There are a whole lot of sketchy people who come out because the area is isolated and police response is slow.

I'm not rural BTW; I just spend a couple months a year up there recreationally.

> assault rifles is worth their availability.

Civilian semi-auto rifles use in crime (which aren't "assault rifles" btw)-- and in suicide-- is negligible. It's rounding error on the statistics.

> Owning a gun also significantly increases the risk of death by suicide.

Correlation equals causation, amirite? Risk of non-gun suicide increases with firearm ownership, but it's still clearly causative. ;)

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#332
post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I completely disagree with your analysis, but it's not really worth debating. Ok! I think you're considerably overestimating the likelihood of needing to defend yourself with the type of gun you think you need. A bolt action 22 is enough for pretty much anyone, and we really need to weigh up whether the increased risk of handguns and assault rifles is worth their availability. > If I decide to kill myself, then I'v…

> Ok! I think you're considerably overestimating the likelihood of needing to defend yourself with the type of gun you think you need. OK. I think you heavily overestimate your own level of knowledge and understanding on this topic. > A bolt action 22 is enough for pretty much anyone, This is a terrible defensive choice. It is unlikely to be available if needed, and doesn't work well at short-moderate range. Longer r…

> This is a terrible defensive choice. It is unlikely to be available if needed, and doesn't work well at short-moderate range. Longer ranges are too far for credible self defense. Also, the lethality is limited; you're going to need to get lucky to stop someone from stabbing the fuck out of you.

I did talk about range. I did talk about deterrence rather than stopping power.

> There are a whole lot of sketchy people who come out because the area is isolated and police response is slow. > > I'm not rural BTW; I just spend a couple months a year up there recreationally.

I grew up in a rural area, I own rural property and I will be back for Christmas. I think you have some odd ideas about why people live in rural areas.

> Civilian semi-auto rifles use in crime (which aren't "assault rifles" btw)-- and in suicide-- is negligible. It's rounding error on the statistics.

If you get rid of your guns in a rural area, your chance of dying from both suicide and murder, drops. Do you need an assault rifle (I didn't mention semi-auto rifles) to defend against meth heads with knives?

> Correlation equals causation, amirite? Risk of non-gun suicide increases with firearm ownership, but it's still clearly causative. ;)

Actually, some studies have found a slight negative correlation for other types of suicide when people own guns. Haven't seen one yet that says the risk increases for non-gun suicides.

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00029... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15522849 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12764330 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8371731 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8485675 How many references will be sufficient evidence?

None that you merely googled for. I'm looking for content that actually supports your specific claim. 1) a survey on firearms-related deaths that doesn't even look at in-home use or defensive vs offensive use. 2) A review of 26-year-old death certificates. Did you read this part? "Blacks, persons less than 35 years of age or older than age 100 years, and persons who died from external causes of homicide, suicide, and…

> None that you merely googled for. I'm looking for content that actually supports your specific claim.

Ok. How do you want me to look for the data?

> 1) a survey on firearms-related deaths that doesn't even look at in-home use or defensive vs offensive use.

It's not just a survey.

> 2) A review of 26-year-old death certificates. Did you read this part? "Blacks, persons less than 35 years of age or older than age 100 years, and persons who died from external causes of homicide, suicide, and unintentional injury were oversampled in this survey."

Oversampling doesn't invalidate studies. Are you annoyed they acknowledged it? A less rigorous study wouldn't.

> 3) Uses same cooked data as #2, study done by an anti-gun interest group (VPC).

What neutral groups do you think are studying this stuff? The CDC? Well, they can start now.

> 4) Again uses the same cooked data from 26 years ago. > > 5) A thirty-year-old phone survey that doesn't even examine in-home gun use. Seriously?

Could you help me understand what you'd consider "evidence", considering you won't accept articles from peer-reviewed journals. Why does suicide or homicide have to happen "in-home" for it to be valid?

I'll provide more references if you can explain exactly what evidence would satisfy you. Otherwise it seems like a waste of time on my part.

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#334
post #3

Gun violence research is a good example of how science can be skewed to make different political points. For example, one of the new tactics gun control advocates have adopted is lumping homicides and suicides together into “gun deaths” even though the policy implications of the two things are quite different. (Suicides accounting for the large majority of “gun deaths,” but bans on semi-automatic rifles and high capa…

science or anything else humans do can be skewed. Saying things like 'we should do gun research because it can be skewed', well that's just a way to avoid it.

too late to edit, I meant to say "we should not do gun research ..."

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#335
post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ok! I think you're considerably overestimating the likelihood of needing to defend yourself with the type of gun you think you need. OK. I think you heavily overestimate your own level of knowledge and understanding on this topic. > A bolt action 22 is enough for pretty much anyone, This is a terrible defensive choice. It is unlikely to be available if needed, and doesn't work well at short-moderate range. Longer r…

> This is a terrible defensive choice. It is unlikely to be available if needed, and doesn't work well at short-moderate range. Longer ranges are too far for credible self defense. Also, the lethality is limited; you're going to need to get lucky to stop someone from stabbing the fuck out of you. I did talk about range. I did talk about deterrence rather than stopping power. > There are a whole lot of sketchy people…

> I grew up in a rural area, I own rural property and I will be back for Christmas. I think you have some odd ideas about why people live in rural areas.

I have odd ideas about the behavior of itinerants who pass through rural areas. It's amazing the amount of crime you can have when law enforcement effectively doesn't exist.

> Do you need an assault rifle (I didn't mention semi-auto rifles) to defend against meth heads with knives?

Civilians (with exceptions for grandfathered items before 1984 and manufacturers, etc) can't legally own anything that meets the real definition of "assault rifle". Things people call "assault weapons" are often synonymous with a subset of semi-auto rifles. If semi-auto rifles are nearly irrelevant in violent crime epidemiology, subsets of them are even more so. :P

Handguns are the weapon of choice for ordinary defense scenarios, because they can be readily carried, have a muzzle energy that limits overpenetration risks, and can be positively controlled by the wielder even in short-range engagement scenarios.

I "need" "assault rifles" (which they're not) because I shoot them in competitive events and for fun and training. They're not a particularly good choice for suicide; they're not really that useful in crime scenarios; they are good at marksmanship and plinking. They're functionally identical to other semi-automatic rifles.

> Actually, some studies have found a slight negative correlation for other types of suicide when people own guns. Haven't seen one yet that says the risk increases for non-gun suicides.

First, Ludwig and Cook performed a time-series analysis of the Brady law and found a statistically significant reduction in gun suicide rates after the law's passage, but a non-statistically significant change in suicide rates. So that right there is enough to question the efficacy of what you suggest (gun control as a mechanism to prevent suicide).

In 2004, the NRC said:

> There is also cross-sectional, ecological association between gun ownership and overall risk of suicide, but this association is more modest than the association between gun ownership and gun suicide; it is less consistently observed across time, place, and persons; and the causal relation remains unclear

It's a bit dubious that internet-rando-from-outside-the-US can be trusted to confidently proclaim the efficacy of gun control as a suicide reduction technique when the nation's research academies are not so sure. ;)

Also a surprisingly large fraction of guns used in suicide are purchased shortly before death, which calls into question the efficacy of removing guns from households as a means to prevent suicide.

But for what I directly asserted, "Guns and Suicide,” , Duggan (2003) found a positive correlation between firearm prevalence and nonfirearm suicide. “The Epidemiology of Case Fatality Rates for Suicide in the Northeast,”, Miller, 2004 found a positive correlation between firearm prevalence and nonfirearm suicide attempts. The finding that high firearm prevalence is correlated with increased nonfirearm suicide rates is also supported by multiple analyses by different authors of the CDC's BRFSS data.

But anyways-- time for me to move on. We're down in the weeds and won't be read by others; the stuff you assert seems to vary between uninformed and dubious; and neither of us is gonna convince the other.

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#336
post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is a terrible defensive choice. It is unlikely to be available if needed, and doesn't work well at short-moderate range. Longer ranges are too far for credible self defense. Also, the lethality is limited; you're going to need to get lucky to stop someone from stabbing the fuck out of you. I did talk about range. I did talk about deterrence rather than stopping power. > There are a whole lot of sketchy people…

> I grew up in a rural area, I own rural property and I will be back for Christmas. I think you have some odd ideas about why people live in rural areas. I have odd ideas about the behavior of itinerants who pass through rural areas. It's amazing the amount of crime you can have when law enforcement effectively doesn't exist. > Do you need an assault rifle (I didn't mention semi-auto rifles) to defend against meth he…

> I "need" "assault rifles" (which they're not) because I shoot them in competitive events and for fun and training. They're not a particularly good choice for suicide; they're not really that useful in crime scenarios; they are good at marksmanship and plinking. They're functionally identical to other semi-automatic rifles.

This is great because the self-defence argument isn't applicable at all for these guns, then. Hooray!

> It's a bit dubious that internet-rando-from-outside-the-US

This seems a little emotional. You're an "internet-rando" too.

> First, Ludwig and Cook performed a time-series analysis of the Brady law and found a statistically significant reduction in gun suicide rates after the law's passage, but a non-statistically significant change in suicide rates. So that right there is enough to question the efficacy of what you suggest (gun control as a mechanism to prevent suicide).

Is this the same Ludwig and Cook that found in 2004 that handgun owners accounted for a much higher rate of suicides than long rifles? That's one of the reasons I suggest owning a 22 bolt action.

I'm curious about what mechanism you think explains the result that owning a gun increases the non-gun suicide rate. Many meta-analyses across studies such as Santaella-Tenorio's in 2016 which stretches across 10 countries and 130 studies, suggest a strong link between better gun control and less gun violence and suicide.

> But anyways-- time for me to move on. We're down in the weeds and won't be read by others; the stuff you assert seems to vary between uninformed and dubious; and neither of us is gonna convince the other.

I'm really interested in how people form beliefs about their safety in the world, and this has been informative. Thanks!

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None that you merely googled for. I'm looking for content that actually supports your specific claim. 1) a survey on firearms-related deaths that doesn't even look at in-home use or defensive vs offensive use. 2) A review of 26-year-old death certificates. Did you read this part? "Blacks, persons less than 35 years of age or older than age 100 years, and persons who died from external causes of homicide, suicide, and…

> None that you merely googled for. I'm looking for content that actually supports your specific claim. Ok. How do you want me to look for the data? > 1) a survey on firearms-related deaths that doesn't even look at in-home use or defensive vs offensive use. It's not just a survey. > 2) A review of 26-year-old death certificates. Did you read this part? "Blacks, persons less than 35 years of age or older than age 100…

  How do you want me to look for the data?
Thank you for acknowledging that you didn't have actual data you were basing that claim on in the first place.

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

under a Republican government Actually, Democrats controlled the Assembly, and the Mulford Act didn't move until it had a majority of Democrat cosponsors.

It passed the Assembly in a bipartisan manner, but the governor was a republican (Reagan). It was also introduced by a republican (Mulford). I didn't mean to excuse the Democrats who supported it, they were racist opportunists, I merely wanted to point out the CA Republican party dropped its principled support for 2nd Amendment Rights as soon as the people they would be protecting didn't look White like them.

  It passed the Assembly in a bipartisan manner
It passed both houses with over 2/3rds majorities, and neither was Republican controlled... so your attempt to make it a partisan thing is confusing.

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok! Is there perhaps a less messy way to do it than a gun? Also I think people, particularly men, seem to think they're pretty immune to mental illness or fits of emotion. That's another belief that lacks a basis. Whether you die because you had a bad month or because a toddler found your gun, or your partner was angry at you, you'll still be dead.

> Ok! Is there perhaps a less messy way to do it than a gun? Of course. And maybe we should encourage people to pursue those alternatives if they're sure in their decision, and maybe take some time to contemplate whether it's what they really want before doing something they can't undo. But we need to do that anyway , because even without a gun, someone may have a rope on hand, or a bottle of pills. We need to addres…

> We need to address the underlying issue

Reducing access to means and methods is one of the most important suicide prevention measures we can take. It's a key part of any national suicide prevention strategy.

> because even without a gun, someone may have a rope on hand, or a bottle of pills.

People tend to have a preferred method, and method substitution takes years. But assume they do instantly switch from using a gun to using some other method: that's still beneficial, because they've switched from something that's very lethal to something that's probably less lethal.

Re: United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not a particularly compelling argument. It suggests we should never attempt to solve any problem, because other smaller problems will continue to exist and we need to solve them to.

That's not the argument at all. Rather it's that if you address the root cause, which you need to do anyway, then you don't need to worry about mitigations. If your house has a gas leak and someone says "don't turn on the light, it's dangerous" then even if they're right, the real solution is to do something about the gas leak, not to sit in darkness and do nothing while your house is full of gas. And once the gas is…

Metaphors are unhelpful.

First of all, here's the US CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/pdf/suicideTechnicalP...

Page 12 says "Reduce access to lethal means among persons at risk of suicide"

Here's the World Health Organisation: https://www.who.int/mental_health/mhgap/evidence/suicide/q7/...

> At the population level, restricting access to means of self-harm (such as pesticides, firearms, high places) is recommended.

> Strength of recommendation: STRONG

> Quality of the evidence: MODERATE

> Collaboration between health and other relevant sectors should be established and the community should be involved actively to find locally feasible ways to implement interventions at the population level to reduce access to means of suicide to decrease deaths from suicide, suicide attempts and acts of self-harm.

> Strength of recommendation: STRONG

> Quality of the evidence: MODERATE

If you have tens of thousands of people dying each year from one method of suicide you need to reduce access to that method while you're putting in place other stuff to reduce suicidality in the population.

The reducing access to means and methods is equivalent in your metaphor to "as you're leaving this gas filled house do not strike any matches".

In your analogy "doing something about the gas leak" (fixing suicidality across a population) is something that takes years of concerted effort across national and local government agencies, see the linked CDC report above for examples.

By not reducing access to means and methods you're saying you're content for people to die a painful death in gas explosions because you think the gas leaks should be fixed quicker, even though everyone who knows anything about gas leaks is telling that's not how it works.

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