Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 273 posts

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#151

Post by kingofpandora »

salawat wrote: post #145
CharlesColeman wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The 737 Max is doomed without the MCAS, the entire reason it exists is to keep the same type rating the same to keep pilots from needing to re-certify. That's what Boeing wanted, but that doesn't mean they should get it. Anyway, I think "doomed" is overstating it. I would assume whatever training an existing 737 pilot would need to fly and MCAS-less MAX would be far less that what they would need to fly an Airbus.

The MAX can't be certified for civil air transport without MCAS. That's the rub. If Boeing could have built and certified the plane without it, they would have.

Are you sure? There's been a lot written about the reasons for MCAS and this is the first time I've seen anyone claim that the MAX couldn't be certified without it.

Everyone else has stated that the reason for MCAS is so that MAX could be certified as a previous generation of 737 and therefore not require training for an established 737 pilot to fly.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#152

Post by wayoutthere »

ismail wrote: post #122
wayoutthere wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The lawsuits that are surely incoming are going to pile-drive this company into the ground. Boeing is one of the most heavily subsidized companies in the world -- right alongside Airbus. They are a strategic asset to the United States far beyond their market value. The market knows this, hence why their stock is not being hammered.

I am not from the states. both of the comments below indicate that Boeing is a strategic asset. Other comments also express similar sentiments. What is the logic for this? why is this the case? “They are a strategic asset to the United States far beyond their market value.” ”the airlines know that Boeing will never go under because the US government would (justifiably) never let that happen for strategic reasons“

Boeing is a defense contractor that has well-developed supply chains. If we got into a shooty war and needed more airplanes, Boeing can build them. You don't want to be caught going into a shooty war without the ability to reinforce your equipment. And if you do, you can convert the commercial manufacturing capacity to military to much greater effect if the commercial side is already at super-scale. The capability is worth the subsidies IMO.

Boeing also ensures American interests dominate the skies around the world. There just aren't that many manufacturers of aircraft, and Boeing spreads American influence / values across the globe as an essential part of infrastructure. Airbus does the same for the EU.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#153

Post by djcapelis »

9nGQluzmnq3M wrote: post #128
inferiorhuman wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese is currently competing with Embraer (E-Jet E2) and Bombardier (C-series/A22x) AKA Boeing and Airbus.

The C919 is a narrowbody jet aimed at the 737/A320. There are no Chinese widebody/twin aisle aircraft, now or anytime in the foreseeable future, that can compete with the 787/A350.

In a huge leap of naming they’ve named it the C929 with initial flights in 2025 and EIS planned for 2027. It’s cool to think they probably won’t hit those dates but pretending like a roadmap doesn’t even exist is not.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#154

Post by ummonk »

starfallg wrote: post #96
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lawsuits that are surely incoming are going to pile-drive this company into the ground Legally, everyone is indemnified up the wazoo. Strategically, airlines are in a worse position if Boeing goes under. Not only do they lose the planes on order. They also lose their service and replacement-parts provider. The survivors would, in the medium-term, face an Airbus monopoly and, in the long-term, a Chinese-European duo…

> Chinese-European duopoly Unlikely. The Chinese is currently competing with Embraer (E-Jet E2) and Bombardier (C-series/A22x) with the Comac C919 which has problems with production. Since its first flight in 2017, there has only been 5 built. Tech transfers has also slowed to trickle since the HSR fiasco with foreign rail technology absorbed and then re-exported. Nobody trusts the Chinese to play fair. What's more l…

The C919 is competing with the 737 and A320, and hasn't entered production yet. Are you mixing it up with the ARJ21?

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#156

Post by clintonb »

tyingq wrote: post #81
clintonb wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the Max doesn't return to service or even if its grounding is prolonged this represents an existential threat to the likes of Southwest as part of the way they maintain their low margins is by having a fleet with one and only one type rating. The 737 MAX has the same rating as every 737 that Southwest and others fly. Part of the MCAS controversy stems from the fact that Boeing did not discuss it to avoid needing…

They are saying that if the MAX isn't available, Southwest will have to consider buying a completely different aircraft.

Yeah...they can buy other 737 variants. The MAX may be one of the most fuel-efficient 737s on the market, but the 737NG line is still in production.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#158

Post by zaroth »

rwc wrote: post #88
ryanisnan wrote: post #19

I'm surprised that the market hasn't reacted more negatively towards Boeing regarding the Max 8 disaster. Airlines operate on razor-thin margins (~1 to 2%), and several users of the Max 8 have had significant portions of their fleet out of service as a result. Westjet [1], for example runs 124 planes currently. 13 of which are the Max 8. Over 10% of their fleet. Southwest Airlines [2], for example, runs 748 planes, 3…

Boeing already cleared their obligation to Southwest for 2019 with a $125 million payment. Nothing to sneeze at, but far from anything nearing a "pile-drive".

No, the $125 million was just the portion set aside for Southwest employees.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#159

Post by TuringNYC »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #36
ryanisnan wrote: post #19

I'm surprised that the market hasn't reacted more negatively towards Boeing regarding the Max 8 disaster. Airlines operate on razor-thin margins (~1 to 2%), and several users of the Max 8 have had significant portions of their fleet out of service as a result. Westjet [1], for example runs 124 planes currently. 13 of which are the Max 8. Over 10% of their fleet. Southwest Airlines [2], for example, runs 748 planes, 3…

> lawsuits that are surely incoming are going to pile-drive this company into the ground Legally, everyone is indemnified up the wazoo. Strategically, airlines are in a worse position if Boeing goes under. Not only do they lose the planes on order. They also lose their service and replacement-parts provider. The survivors would, in the medium-term, face an Airbus monopoly and, in the long-term, a Chinese-European duo…

>> As emotionally-satisfying as it may be to see Boeing go under for its arrogance, it's neither helpful nor likely. (A well-managed break-up, on the other hand...)

Not Likely is the key word here. They are large and have a strategic value to the US and hence Too Big To Fail https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_big_to_fail

I'd bet the US Government steps in to re-structure and backstop as required to save the company. There are numerous ways we've discovered to do so post 2008.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#160

Post by Aloha »

Xixi wrote: post #150
Aloha wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next model is 10 years and north of a billion dollars away.

A billion dollar would be dirt cheap for a clean sheet design. The MAX program (including its engine) is estimated at $2B-3B. For a clean sheet successor a safe assumption would be 7 to 8 years to EIS and $15B in investment.

I assumed it was north of 5b, but I was on my phone at the time and didnt look up costs.
Post reply on HN