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Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

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Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#191

Post by pochamago »

pabo wrote: post #174
awestroke wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like VR would be better for that

But VR would prevent you from interacting with your real environment. For instance, with AR you could still grab your tea mug without switching context.

At this stage, I honestly think it would be easier to get pre-modeled tea mugs that your VR headset can track than to have a good experience replacing your desktop with AR. Even just modeling it yourself and gluing a vive puck to the bottom seems pretty easy. I understand that the mug is really just one example, but for almost any given problem VR seems like it's ready to be adjusted to deal with it far better than AR is ready to even create the fundamental experience of being a desktop monitor replacement.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#192

Post by poidos »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #152
donpdonp wrote: post #39

Magic Leap One has been for sale for 6 months. At $2.6B in total funding, thats $433,333 per unit for 6,000 units. The sticker price is $2300 per unit. By comparison the Nintendo VirtualBoy was for sale for one year at $180(in 1995/$300 in 2018) and sold 770,000 units[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_Boy

> 6,000 units This number gets more mind-blowing the more you think about it. It's small enough that one needs to start considering the units bought by management, employees, investors, suppliers, competitors, et cetera to say nothing of their friends and families.

A friend worked for them and (if I recall correctly) employees got a free unit. Not sure if that’s included in this number.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#193

Post by daeken »

tigershark wrote: post #165
daeken wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The original Hololens was underwhelming in some regards, but they got a few things very right: text was crisp in most circumstances, the contrast was great, and the software mostly Just Worked (TM). All of these things are absent on the Magic Leap. The only advantages it really has are the controller (which is ... okay, I guess) and comfort.

And the double FOV area no? If I remember correctly it’s even slightly bigger than hololens 2 that went out something like 6 months after magic leap one.

It's 45% bigger in area, rather than to a side (~4x overall area) like most people think when they see "double FOV". It's an improvement, yes, but not one that actually substantially changes its utility. If I could trade my Magic Leap for my old Hololens, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#194

Post by daeken »

filoleg wrote: post #85
daeken wrote: post #3

I bought one second-hand a couple months ago. It's neat and all, but between the poor software and the severe extent to which it darkens the rest of the world, it's a pretty resounding 'meh'. I still have hopes for using it for productivity, but it honestly doesn't hold a candle to the original Hololens. (Can't speak to the Hololens 2 yet; going to get one in a little while though, hopefully!)

I haven't gotten a chance to try Magic Leap myself, but if you think that Magic Leap doesn't hold a candle to the original Hololens, then in it is dead in the water imo. I was somewhat annoyed with how small the field of view was on Hololens, and overall it was a pretty janky experience that I wouldn't recommend to anyone except those who just want to try the first "real" AR headset product out here and attempt writi…

How was the comfort level on the HL2? That and the low FOV were what killed the original for me, as my use case is replacing my screens. I'm actually getting ready to commit to working 100% through VR -- Quest -- and AR -- currently ML1, but seriously considering the HL2...

If I didn't have a toddler to watch while I work much of the time, I'd probably just go all-in on VR (I'm currently working 30-50% through the Quest), but being able to see the world is kind of essential for those times haha.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#195

Post by seanmcdirmid »

madengr wrote: post #173
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The really big market being found for VR is in fitness, that could have a much larger impact (to general health even: than if it were just used for games and entertainment.

Nope. Porn.

I don’t really see that at all. Facebook just bought Beat Games, not PornHub.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#196

Post by 6gvONxR4sf7o »

rl3 wrote: post #169
saalweachter wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that "light going into your eyeball" is how your eyes work, and that conventional monitors are not suspected to be great for your eyes, but "shoot light directly at your retinas" always makes me nervous.

I suspect in about 20-30 years that method will be considered antiquated, and brain implants with direct access to the user's visual cortex will be far more sensible for that kind of thing.

AR brain implants in 20-30 years? We can't even cure hemorrhoids. No way that timeline is accurate.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#197

Post by drcode »

gumby wrote: post #178
kaibee wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One major difference between VR and AR content is that VR can do blacks. Current AR is limited to overlaying more light onto a piece of your visual field. It has no way to make any spot more dark. This is fine for VR, since there should be no other light leaking in apart from what is produced by the unit. AR at the least needs a projector that can compete with the amount of light in the your scene already.

You could make an occlusion shutter but I haven’t seen a small lcd with the requisite speed and resolution.

You actually can't do that: People have tried, but the plane of focus makes the LCD too blurry. It's an unsolved technology problem.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#198

Post by fuzzfactor »

jdminhbg wrote: post #161
dylan604 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Magic Leap reminds me of Theranos. The companies with vaporware seem to have very similar playbooks that are pretty obvious with how in your face they are while never actually showing the product.

> Magic Leap reminds me of Theranos. Even if Magic Leap dies on the vine, I don't think they're anything like Theranos except for both being unsuccessful VC-funded companies. Theranos tried to sell fraudulent health care services. Magic Leap is trying (and failing) to build a real product. You can buy one and see what it does, and nobody's health is impacted if their experience just sucks.

Theranos failed to sell automatic blood testing machines to the military so they pivoted to providing services of questionable repute.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#199

Post by sytelus »

wpietri wrote: post #143
daenz wrote: post #12

The thing that got me about the Magic Leap is I couldn't find a reliable video of what it looked like through the lenses. Everything was clearly a CGI overlay or recreation. Reviewers claimed they were prohibited from showing video through the lenses.[0] I can understand not wanting their product misrepresented, but all the secrecy and censorship about it makes me believe it is bad, and I'm not going to spend money o…

Another dimension to consider: if it's good, how long is it good for? I just got done writing a long thread on the history of 3D as a novelty: https://twitter.com/williampietri/status/1203074623232851970 But the basic summary is that since the 1850s, people keep coming up with exciting 3D innovations that sell lots of units for a while, but that never make much of a difference. Stereoscopic 3D is interesting and fun;…

You are confusing tech deficiency for the lack of interest. Imagine if the tech was available so you can see 3D content covering the entire human FOV in 8K resolution that with almost no weight on the head just for $500, would you not buy it and use it full time? Things have came long way and still long way to go but our biological construction demands 3D tech and it's not going to change anytime soon.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#200

Post by greggman2 »

dmix wrote: post #190
rl3 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise. The same meme was also used for trashing the sorry state of No Man's Sky release in 2016: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5jWtz3rzco To their credit, the developers diligently kept working on the game and I've heard it's quite polished now. I kind of doubt we'll see the same turnaround story with Magic Leap, but who knows.

Nice video explaining No Man Sky’s evolution: https://youtu.be/uzvxn6l50co Anyone who has worked in software knows the difference between expectations/projections and real life. Everything takes 10x longer once you dig into the details. So it’s great to see a gaming company able to adapt and continually release through those down moments and eventually produce something great. It makes you wonder how much better othe…

I didn't get No Man's Sky until this August when they released the VR version. I got it on sale fully expecting to spent only 20 minutes with it. I just wanted to see it in VR. I ended up spending 20 hrs. I felt like a little kid pretending to be in space. It was awesome. About 15hrs in I tried non-VR for a moment. Couldn't take it. There are many things I'd change about the game but being in space in VR was amazing.
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