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Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

sciencemag.org

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Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#141

Post by abathur »

droithomme wrote: post #106
thaumaturgy wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. In 1974 and 1975, Time and Newsweek respectively ran articles proposing a global cooling trend. These articles were (loosely) based on a couple of papers that found that if fine-particulate atmospheric aerosols continued to increase the way they were, they could reflect away enough sunlight to cause surface cooling. (And in fact, exactly that was happening during the 70s.) However, the Clean Air Act and other si…

> the Clean Air Act and other similar efforts around the world reduced the amount of particulate aerosols in the air. You just found a solution to global warming. Since you agree that particulate aerosols in the air were going to cause an ice age and the Clean Air Act would fix that, then the Clean Air Act is what has contributed more than anything else to global warming. Repeal the Clean Air Act, reintroduce those o…

Ah. Yes. The good ol' reductio-ab-London argument. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#142

Post by fzeroracer »

huffmsa wrote: post #72
gowld wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people are interested in a particular subset of life thriving.

You don't think we will? Perhaps not as many of us. But that's part of the problem isn't it? Too many humans, chopping down forests, over fishing, sucking melted dinosaurs out of the earth.

What you're essentially defending is the right for nations contributing the most to climate change and what not to essentially put people in nations most affected by climate change to the sword if they chose to immigrate away from their ravaged nation.

Instead of making an argument justifying genocide, perhaps we should instead take action against climate change before it becomes a problem? Or would you prefer the next war to be fought over water instead of oil?

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#144

Post by whokal »

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #126
mistermann wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As noted in TFA, they looked at 17 forecasts from 14 models Pardon a little pedantry: >> The researchers compared annual average surface temperatures across the globe to the surface temperatures predicted in 17 forecasts. Those predictions were drawn from 14 separate computer models released between 1970 and 2001. In some cases, the studies and their computer codes were so old that the team had to extract data publ…

TFA article does say. They looked at 17 forecasts drawn from 14 models. You are the one who implicitly believes they are lying about that and only reporting 17 out of some huge unknown number. The reality is that the vast majority (>99%) of climate change research does not produce the type of forecast, or really any forecast at all, that one could do this analysis on. Therefore, the 17 forecast number is actually ver…

With sincerity, I think you may misunderstand what GP is pointing out. I understood “forecasts” to be a simulation run using a model. In that case, they took 14 models and ran those each at least once to come up with 17 predictions.

What GP wants is transparency around how many possible models were there over the last decades from which they chose the 14. This gives the reader a better understanding of whether 14 is a lot or a little. It is a fair point IMO regardless of their overall stance on the issue.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#146

Post by Proven »

huffmsa wrote: post #51
aidenn0 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Henri was suggesting to use specific models for specific predictions, he added this note: > Note to reader: I was going to use Arctic sea ice in 2100 as an example, but there probably won’t be any lol

There has been sea ice in the Arctic for well under 50% of the planets history. Life thrived The Sahara desert was a grassland 5000-10000 years Life thrived.

> For forcing projections that were close to linear, this didn’t make that much difference, but for scenarios that weren’t (notably scenario C in Hansen et al (1988)), the correction does not work well.

Notably the RCS article (quote above) emphasizes that the non-alarmist papers were sort of accurate, while the alarmist crap was off by a lot.

The climatists trumpet this news as if the alarmist crap (examples from your comment) was right on the spot. No it wasn't - it was ridiculously overrated just so that statists and plunderers can get their hands on our liberty and income.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#147

Post by randomidiot666 »

woodandsteel wrote: post #36

Standard conservative responses: --The globe is not getting warmer --We don't know if the globe is getting warmer or not --We do know the globe is getting warmer, but we don't know why --We do know the globe is getting warmer, but it has a different cause than human activities --We do know the globe is getting warmer, and it is in part due to human activities, but any action to counter this would be more harmful than…

-- We know the globe is getting warmer, and transferring a trillion dollars (Paris Agreement) from taxpayers in developed nations into the pockets of corrupt political and business entities in third world countries (with Goldman Sachs taking their fair share) is not a genuine solution.

-- We know the globe is getting warmer, but the reports are exaggerated by an order of magnitude by well funded powerful political entities in order to achieve ultra large scale globalist political objectives. Legitimate criticism of climate modelling accuracy from experts in the field of climate science research is met with primitive ad hominem attacks from other so called scientists, making us very skeptical indeed.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#148

Post by sambull »

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #131
ropiwqefjnpoa wrote: post #121

And yet other 50-year-old climate models in-correctly predicted global cooling.

No. No they did not. This is wrong.

They aren't wrong technically, but the papers relied on key mechanisms that no longer are as big of a issue thus negated. Particulate matter, the effect is now actually being considered as a method of 'geoengineering' a cooler climate to combat the warming by businessmen like Bill Gates [0].

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/07/bill-gates-funded-solar-geoe...

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#149

Post by huffmsa »

KirinDave wrote: post #92
huffmsa wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't think we will? Perhaps not as many of us. But that's part of the problem isn't it? Too many humans, chopping down forests, over fishing, sucking melted dinosaurs out of the earth.

[flagged]

1. Pretty sure suggesting murder suicide is against the rules.

2. The warm areas of are planet aren't recently poor. There's a very narrow habitable band of temperatures in which human society has thrived. The extreme energy needed to develop those areas is contributing more to the degradation of the environment than benefit to the species it is providing.

It's not sustainable. It's going to kill us all. Not everyone can win.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#150

Post by huffmsa »

nabla9 wrote: post #102
huffmsa wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Skepticism of the government is part of the culture. Don't trust bureaucrats further than the rope you need to hang them

What I meant that only in US there are significant number of politicians to bake climate skepticism into government actions.

Ah. Got it
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