People who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change at this point are no better than people who believe the Earth is flat.
Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
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Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#42I'm not sure if he'll pop in here, but one of the co-authors (Henri Drake) has a comment thread on /r/science if anyone wants to ask any questions: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/e63ic5/of_17_clima... EDIT: Here is some of the code used in the paper: https://github.com/hausfath/OldModels Here is a blog post on the paper, written by one of the authors: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/12/h…
> Note to reader: I was going to use Arctic sea ice in 2100 as an example, but there probably won’t be any lol
Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#43People who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change at this point are no better than people who believe the Earth is flat.
Such hubris. Since you've clearly got it all figured out, Tell me, how are we going to address China's runaway coal plant development? Bangladesh's rampant deforestation? Are you so bold as to say that you know what's best for the people in those countries?
Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#44Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.
Is it really true that the scientific concensus was in favor of ice age in the 70s? I have heard people say this before but I have never seen the historical evidence.
Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#45More at 11.
Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, it’s not. There were a small number of scientists that wrote about possibilities of global cooling, but vast majority of scientists were concerned with warming.
Citation needed. Beyond the OP
Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#47People who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change at this point are no better than people who believe the Earth is flat.
Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#48If you run random models and wait long enough you will always be able to find at least one model that predicted the current observations. That does NOT mean the models were right, it means that you are basically ignoring all the other models that made bad predictions. So in order to make a headline out of this you would need to make a extensive review of all the models we had back then and found out HOW MANY were actually not bad.
Would not make that much of a headline because you would find most models were bad. Anyone involved with forecasting will know what I mean.
Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#49Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
#50Standard conservative responses: --The globe is not getting warmer --We don't know if the globe is getting warmer or not --We do know the globe is getting warmer, but we don't know why --We do know the globe is getting warmer, but it has a different cause than human activities --We do know the globe is getting warmer, and it is in part due to human activities, but any action to counter this would be more harmful than…