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Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

sciencemag.org

41–50 of 242 posts

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#41

People who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change at this point are no better than people who believe the Earth is flat.

Not sure about ordering people like this, but to your underlying point: I would say that the evidence for Earth not being flat is directly and immediately observable in everyday life. Climate change evidence on the other hand, one has to either put in some effort in the form of research/reading, or, place trust in an authority or peers.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#42
post #29

I'm not sure if he'll pop in here, but one of the co-authors (Henri Drake) has a comment thread on /r/science if anyone wants to ask any questions: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/e63ic5/of_17_clima... EDIT: Here is some of the code used in the paper: https://github.com/hausfath/OldModels Here is a blog post on the paper, written by one of the authors: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/12/h…

When Henri was suggesting to use specific models for specific predictions, he added this note:

> Note to reader: I was going to use Arctic sea ice in 2100 as an example, but there probably won’t be any lol

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#43
post #28

People who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change at this point are no better than people who believe the Earth is flat.

Such hubris. Since you've clearly got it all figured out, Tell me, how are we going to address China's runaway coal plant development? Bangladesh's rampant deforestation? Are you so bold as to say that you know what's best for the people in those countries?

Erm... I feel like you're maybe projecting and/or arguing a strawman. Acknowledging that humans are causing the climate to change is quite a far cry from demanding actions from China's population.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#44
post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

Is it really true that the scientific concensus was in favor of ice age in the 70s? I have heard people say this before but I have never seen the historical evidence.

To the same extent that today scientific consensus is that Earth is flat and has 6000 years :)

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#46
post #35
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it’s not. There were a small number of scientists that wrote about possibilities of global cooling, but vast majority of scientists were concerned with warming.

Citation needed. Beyond the OP

That's not how it works. You can't make a baseless claim then require everyone to prove you wrong.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#48
Where is the story hère though? So they looked retroactively and found some models in the past that fitted with current observations even though they had no clue that China would become such a powerful force in terms of CO2 emissions?

If you run random models and wait long enough you will always be able to find at least one model that predicted the current observations. That does NOT mean the models were right, it means that you are basically ignoring all the other models that made bad predictions. So in order to make a headline out of this you would need to make a extensive review of all the models we had back then and found out HOW MANY were actually not bad.

Would not make that much of a headline because you would find most models were bad. Anyone involved with forecasting will know what I mean.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#49
post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

Is it really true that the scientific concensus was in favor of ice age in the 70s? I have heard people say this before but I have never seen the historical evidence.

No.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#50

Standard conservative responses: --The globe is not getting warmer --We don't know if the globe is getting warmer or not --We do know the globe is getting warmer, but we don't know why --We do know the globe is getting warmer, but it has a different cause than human activities --We do know the globe is getting warmer, and it is in part due to human activities, but any action to counter this would be more harmful than…

--We do know the global is getting warmer and action wasn't taken, and it's too late, but I'm in my compound with my guns and my family and we will shoot climate refugees and protestors if they get near. Tough luck, might makes right.
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