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Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

sciencemag.org

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Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#11

Post by awinder »

whatshisface wrote: post #5
phkahler wrote: post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

Is it really true that the scientific concensus was in favor of ice age in the 70s? I have heard people say this before but I have never seen the historical evidence.

No, it’s not. There were a small number of scientists that wrote about possibilities of global cooling, but vast majority of scientists were concerned with warming.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#12

Post by rsynnott »

whatshisface wrote: post #5
phkahler wrote: post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

Is it really true that the scientific concensus was in favor of ice age in the 70s? I have heard people say this before but I have never seen the historical evidence.

It’s _nearly_ an urban myth. Some people did say we were due an ice age, but in the “within the next few millennia” range of accuracy, not ‘any day now’. Basically, it’s a good story, but that’s all.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#13

Post by JauntyHatAngle »

whatshisface wrote: post #5
phkahler wrote: post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

Is it really true that the scientific concensus was in favor of ice age in the 70s? I have heard people say this before but I have never seen the historical evidence.

It's rubbish that science predicted an ice age in the 70s. The vast majority of peer reviewed studies predicted a rise in global temperatures due to a rise in CO2.

There were a few studies that predicted an incoming ice age, but they were by far the minority. And these studies were based on predictions of the composition of the atmosphere which did not pan out, where the CO2 predictions have been on point.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#15

Post by rshnotsecure »

whatshisface wrote: post #5
phkahler wrote: post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

Is it really true that the scientific concensus was in favor of ice age in the 70s? I have heard people say this before but I have never seen the historical evidence.

Yes please see Stephen Schneider’s book talked about in The NY Times in 1976. He worked at NASA at one point: https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/20...

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#16

Post by lallysingh »

nickysielicki wrote: post #10
minikites wrote: post #2

People who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change at this point are no better than people who believe the Earth is flat.

What about the person who believes in anthropogenic climate change but doesn’t believe that humans will ever be able (or have ever been able) to cooperate to the extent that is necessary to prevent it, and questions whether required technological advances will ever be made? Asking for a friend...

I believe it only takes a few changes to make sufficient difference. Changes that are already in action.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#17

Post by i_feel_great »

whatshisface wrote: post #5
phkahler wrote: post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

Is it really true that the scientific concensus was in favor of ice age in the 70s? I have heard people say this before but I have never seen the historical evidence.

It was a political concensus. And that political concensus is still strong today. Our (Australian) politics are infested with it. It is like another reality with them.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#18

Post by olliej »

phkahler wrote: post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

Because you've only listened to people who told you what you wanted to hear (that there hasn't been consensus, that its a conspiracy, that it's normal and not human created) and one of the other things that have been pushed has been the idea that there was a significant belief and prediction in an ice age outcome. There were some early models that could produce such an outcome, but they were not long lived due to them very quickly found to be too simple and inaccurate.

But sure, you can claim that 50 years of consistent predictions are fictional or rewriting history.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#19

Post by jussij »

bagacrap wrote: post #4
minikites wrote: post #2

People who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change at this point are no better than people who believe the Earth is flat.

I watched the documentary about flat Earthers and I think they're just having harmless fun.

I've watched quite a few of the flat earther videos found on youtube and at least to me, they seem to come across as genuine and sincere, yet very much misguided.

I would say this is also a good description for todays climate change deniers.

Re: Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

#20

Post by JauntyHatAngle »

rshnotsecure wrote: post #6
phkahler wrote: post #3

Then why were they raising the alarm about a coming ice age in the 70s? This is a rewrite of history.

This is what I came to say. There were very definite beliefs and they were pretty reasonable (although the evidence did not bear out) about global freezing in the early 1970s. Interestingly, we might compare this with the popular idea of Nuclear Winter at the time. Essentially, a nuclear war was supposed to ignite a global conflagration that would incinerate the skies and burn so much smoke to block out the earth. Bu…

They were not definite beliefs, they were fringe studies that were not widely accepted at the time or now.
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