Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code • Hacker News Board

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#21

Post by epo » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:13 PM UTC

rottyguy wrote: post #10

Even though he knew the formula, at least where I buy lottery tickets, the person behind the counter gives you the ticket. Assuming there are many more losers then winners, without being able to select the tickets yourself, it would seem as though it'd be a losing proposition. Now, if you were the store owner and had access to the tickets yourself, that would be a different story.

He does mention that you need to buy in bulk and scan away from the store (with a means to return the rejects for a refund). A backhander to a store owner would do it.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#22

Post by VMG » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:14 PM UTC

bobds wrote: post #12

> "I’d have to travel from store to store and spend 45 seconds cracking each card. I estimated that I could expect to make about $600 a day." Or you could make an app for your smartphone that uses OCR to instantly tell you whether you are looking at a winning ticket.

or buy them directly in bulk

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#23

Post by lancefisher » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:17 PM UTC

lkozma wrote: post #11

I find it strange that they don't use some true random source in generating the tickets. I'm also surprised the article finds this obvious. "Of course, it would be really nice if the computer could just spit out random digits. But that’s not possible, since the lottery corporation needs to control the number of winning tickets" Surely the lottery could quantify uncertainties and set up a system where the probability…

There's a big difference between one $10 million winner and two $10 million winners. Best not to leave that to chance.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#24

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:17 PM UTC

VMG wrote: post #22

bobds wrote: post #12

> "I’d have to travel from store to store and spend 45 seconds cracking each card. I estimated that I could expect to make about $600 a day." Or you could make an app for your smartphone that uses OCR to instantly tell you whether you are looking at a winning ticket.

or buy them directly in bulk

[deleted]

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#25

Post by Rygu » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:17 PM UTC

VMG wrote: post #22

bobds wrote: post #12

> "I’d have to travel from store to store and spend 45 seconds cracking each card. I estimated that I could expect to make about $600 a day." Or you could make an app for your smartphone that uses OCR to instantly tell you whether you are looking at a winning ticket.

or buy them directly in bulk

But buying losing tickets means you're losing money, so you'd want to avoid that and only buy winning tickets.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#26

Post by bobds » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:20 PM UTC

VMG wrote: post #22

bobds wrote: post #12

> "I’d have to travel from store to store and spend 45 seconds cracking each card. I estimated that I could expect to make about $600 a day." Or you could make an app for your smartphone that uses OCR to instantly tell you whether you are looking at a winning ticket.

or buy them directly in bulk

Wouldn't you want that app even more if you were buying them in bulk?

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#27

Post by ars » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:22 PM UTC

tgandrews wrote: post #8

Why do they need a non random code to generate these? If they want to guarantee the number of winners, they can just ensure that they only release so many winners. This would require them "solving" all the tickets they were to release and holding/deleting/regenerating the ticket if they have enough winners already. This may not be the most efficient system but it guarantees it isn't crackable with a couple of caveats…

It might work, but you lose some randomness by doing this. You'd need to check the statistics carefully.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#28

Post by Xk » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:28 PM UTC

sambeau wrote: post #5

Xk wrote: post #2

In some states, the lottery accounts for more than 5 percent of education funding. Am I the only one who finds this ironic? Edit: Except, of course, for those who learn to predict 19 of 20 tickets correctly.

Ironic? no; sad? yes.

I find irony in the fact that if the populous were better educated, the state would get less money.

While not strictly true (a better educated populous would probably earn more, and give more taxes to the state, among other reasons), I find the idea on this small scale amusing.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#29

Post by daeken » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:36 PM UTC

VladRussian wrote: post #7

nagrom wrote: post #3

My favourite line in the whole article was about the way he alerted the lottery board: "The package was sent at 10 am. Two hours later, he received a call from Zufelt. Srivastava had correctly predicted 19 out of the 20 tickets. The next day, the tic-tac-toe game was pulled from stores." I know that we're supposed to be fascinated by the statistical work done cracking the code, but my real sympathy is for the head of…

>not find that the statistician had been threatened with prosecution or similar may be because he is in Canada. Do they have DMCA alike?

The DMCA only applies to mechanisms which protect copyright.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#30

Post by callahad » Tue, Feb 01, 2011, 8:36 PM UTC

golgo13 wrote: post #14

In Canada, are you able to say, "I don't want this one" until you get a potential winner? Here in Texas, you cannot pick your ticket. When you buy a ticket, you get whatever the cashier gives you or whatever the machine spits out. Or is the guy simply not wasting time scratching off the losers? I still don't see how this could be profitable since most games have 1:5 odds, including break even prizes.

This is directly addressed in the article:

“Lots of people buy lottery tickets in bulk to give away as prizes for contests,” he says. He asked several Toronto retailers if they would object to him buying tickets and then exchanging the unused, unscratched tickets. “Everybody said that would be totally fine. Nobody was even a tiny bit suspicious,” he says. “Why not? Because they all assumed the games are unbreakable. So what I would try to do is buy up lots of tickets, run them through my scanning machine, and then try to return the unscratched losers. Of course, you could also just find a retailer willing to cooperate or take a bribe. That might be easier.”