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Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

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Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#11

Post by lkozma »

I find it strange that they don't use some true random source in generating the tickets. I'm also surprised the article finds this obvious.

"Of course, it would be really nice if the computer could just spit out random digits. But that’s not possible, since the lottery corporation needs to control the number of winning tickets"

Surely the lottery could quantify uncertainties and set up a system where the probability of them losing money would be arbitrarily small. Interesting interview, btw.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#12

Post by bobds »

> "I’d have to travel from store to store and spend 45 seconds cracking each card. I estimated that I could expect to make about $600 a day."

Or you could make an app for your smartphone that uses OCR to instantly tell you whether you are looking at a winning ticket.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#13

Post by Joakal »

Xk wrote: post #2

In some states, the lottery accounts for more than 5 percent of education funding. Am I the only one who finds this ironic? Edit: Except, of course, for those who learn to predict 19 of 20 tickets correctly.

Hey now!

http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=1744#c...

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#14

Post by golgo13 »

In Canada, are you able to say, "I don't want this one" until you get a potential winner? Here in Texas, you cannot pick your ticket. When you buy a ticket, you get whatever the cashier gives you or whatever the machine spits out. Or is the guy simply not wasting time scratching off the losers? I still don't see how this could be profitable since most games have 1:5 odds, including break even prizes.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#15

Post by BoppreH »

lkozma wrote: post #11

I find it strange that they don't use some true random source in generating the tickets. I'm also surprised the article finds this obvious. "Of course, it would be really nice if the computer could just spit out random digits. But that’s not possible, since the lottery corporation needs to control the number of winning tickets" Surely the lottery could quantify uncertainties and set up a system where the probability…

I think that "arbitrarily small" is not enough, especially if you are running a business for decades.

Try convincing your boss that the chance of all tickets be winners (which would bring the business down) is "small enough".

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#16

Post by lkozma »

BoppreH wrote: post #15
lkozma wrote: post #11

I find it strange that they don't use some true random source in generating the tickets. I'm also surprised the article finds this obvious. "Of course, it would be really nice if the computer could just spit out random digits. But that’s not possible, since the lottery corporation needs to control the number of winning tickets" Surely the lottery could quantify uncertainties and set up a system where the probability…

I think that "arbitrarily small" is not enough, especially if you are running a business for decades. Try convincing your boss that the chance of all tickets be winners (which would bring the business down) is "small enough".

Arbitrarily small can be less than the chance that random atoms from your coffee rearrange themselves into a winning lottery ticket.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#17

Post by alokt_ »

golgo13 wrote: post #14

In Canada, are you able to say, "I don't want this one" until you get a potential winner? Here in Texas, you cannot pick your ticket. When you buy a ticket, you get whatever the cashier gives you or whatever the machine spits out. Or is the guy simply not wasting time scratching off the losers? I still don't see how this could be profitable since most games have 1:5 odds, including break even prizes.

yes, but if you work at/own a gas station, you can pretty much pick the winners and sell the losing tickets.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#18

Post by apalmblad »

lkozma wrote: post #11

I find it strange that they don't use some true random source in generating the tickets. I'm also surprised the article finds this obvious. "Of course, it would be really nice if the computer could just spit out random digits. But that’s not possible, since the lottery corporation needs to control the number of winning tickets" Surely the lottery could quantify uncertainties and set up a system where the probability…

It sounds like ticket design is the problem; an algorithm is needed that: - produces a set of bingo cards or tic-tac-toe boards such that only one board per card is a winner - produces cards that contain a number of almost winners

Simply randomly assigning numbers wouldn't work, and it seems the method they've developed for building "fun to play" cards contains weaknesses against statistical analysis.

Hmm... now I'll be stuck mulling over a good algorithm for this all day...

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#19

Post by BoppreH »

Why the hell didn't he hire people to find tickets for him?

If you are worried about people doing this without you, just make an app to calculate the values. Make the calculations server side, and only after checking if the phone is registered.

Just don't hire too many people, or the clerks may start to get suspicious.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#20

Post by [deleted] »

rottyguy wrote: post #10

Even though he knew the formula, at least where I buy lottery tickets, the person behind the counter gives you the ticket. Assuming there are many more losers then winners, without being able to select the tickets yourself, it would seem as though it'd be a losing proposition. Now, if you were the store owner and had access to the tickets yourself, that would be a different story.

[deleted]
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