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Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

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Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#331

Post by Wh1skey »

This is leftist propaganda. Increasing minimum wage pushes more people into poverty. The majority of people in poverty vote left.

Why does increasing minimum wage push more people in poverty?

Because an increase in expenses does not guarantee an increase in revenue. If your expenses increase while your revenues remain stagnant, you have to decrease your expenses in order to stay cash flow positive. To compensate, you decrease the number of hours employees receive. Less hours translate into less employees required. When the people who are earning minimum wage can't find a job because of the lack of hours available or can't receive enough hours from their employer, they are falling into poverty.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#332

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

ChrisLomont wrote: post #295
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ideally everyone's income should be derived from the value they generate. Define "value". Or more specifically, how do you measure "value" for jobs that don't directly generate revenue? How much value does the janitorial staff create? How much value does your IT team create? What's the dollar value of your cybersecurity team? What about HR? None of these teams directly create revenue for the company, but certainly…

>How much value does the janitorial staff create? When the company hires them, the company has decided that the company obtains enough value for the transaction. So does the janitorial staff. >And yet they're having to fight for fair wages? They're the most valuable labor in the company! Not if someone else is willing to do the job for the same pay - this is market clearing. They're paid what it takes to fill the pos…

So then we are in agreement that wages are not a function of value created by the worker. They pay only what it takes to get the position filled, which is a completely unrelated number to value.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#333

Post by SamReidHughes »

krnlpnc wrote: post #320
gwright wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So by your logic an employer would be required to pay every employee a wage that would allow them to support a family even if they don't have a family to support?

Yes. I’m talking about the minimum wage for any employee. Consider the fact that it is illegal in the US to ask an interviewee their age, marital status, and family status, among other things.

None of that is illegal. You can ask, but you can't discriminate.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#334

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

sokoloff wrote: post #302
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it's highly disturbing to me that people will defend these situations on this site. An alarming amount of HN commenters seem to believe that the cost of labor is a function of the money created by the labor. In other words, a job will only pay $X/hr because it creates $Y/hr in revenue where Y > X + some margin. They pretend that if Y goes up, then it brings X up and if X is low, then it means Y MUST be low as wel…

The more logical claim reads more like "employers will logically try not to employ unprofitable labor", meaning that the wage paid to a worker will generally be no higher than the variable profit enabled by that worker.

Certainly, but that's nothing more than a truism.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#335

Post by pingyong »

apcragg wrote: post #92
pge wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plot is showing that there is a negative selection bias in the reporting of stories about minimum wage. That is, that stories suggesting that increasing minimum wage has negative effects (increases unemployment, etc) are overreported relative to stories showing a positive effect from an increase in minimum wage. I am only repeating what the paper says; I don't claim to have validated their methodology or sources.

That is an incomplete summary. Their conclusion is that despite this larger than normal selection bias, the minimum wage appears to have no impact on unemployment. The paper's abstract, discussion, and summary all mention this as part of the central thesis - why leave it out?

>why leave it out?

Because he summarized the plot, not the paper.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#336

Post by dredmorbius »

jeremyjh wrote: post #252
Alex3917 wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you raise the minimum wage, it makes automation more effective in comparison. Which is why in NYC when they raised the minimum wage for fast food workers, most of the people at McDonald's who used to take orders just got replaced with kiosks. This is in effect a subsidy for the tech companies that automate labor, like the company that makes the McDonald's kiosks.

Higher wages might make it easier to make a business case for installing kiosks, but it does nothing to lower the price of the kiosks. I don't see how it qualifies as a "subsidy".

It's a market shift more than a subsidy.

Given a constant demand for, say, fast-food ordering services, there are two competing supplies addressing that need: minimum-wage labour, or automated kiosks.

By raising the minimum wage, you're shifting the supply curve up, which if sufficient, kicks the advantage to the kiosk manufacturer(s). Advantage: automation.

The kiosk vendors get a windfall benefit as they can now capture this share of the market.

The restaurateurs may wish to consider what their new market position vis-a-vis suppliers is. With minimum-wage labour, any one unit of input (worker) is fungible for another, and the employer has considerable leverage over the supply in that whilst a worker is out of a job, the employer need only find another replacement worker.

Up against a (likely) automation oligopoly or monopoly, the restaurateur is now at the short end of the market stick, and may face future price (or other) demands or concessions from the automation vendor(s). At least to the point of substituting back in human labour.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#337

Post by dredmorbius »

btilly wrote: post #233
take_a_breath wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you define “reasonable”? The bill that passed the House wouldn’t get to $15/hr until 2025. That would be a 4.6% annual increase (CAGR) going back to 2009 when the $7.25 rate was implemented. That might be a little higher than you’d like, but is it “unreasonable”? Maybe a compromise could include a longer ramp or a ramp to $13 or $14, but I haven’t heard that argument presented. If we tracked inflation since 20…

Lots of people say "tracked inflation", but few understand that inflation is measured relative to a basket of goods, and which basket of goods you pick really matters. Which means that the inflation rate you personally experience will depend on your lifestyle. The result is that the inflation rate as experienced by the well-off (who consume more luxuries) is generally quite different than the inflation rate as experi…

There's a long-standing folk wisdom that the rich pay less for things than the poor.

How well that stands up to scrutiny I don't know, though I encountered it recently on an old (probably 1960s / early 1970s) Studs Terkel interview, as a guest comment.

(Guests were Willard Moss, pioneer amateur filmmaker, & John Dubay.)

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#338

Post by krnlpnc »

SamReidHughes wrote: post #333
krnlpnc wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. I’m talking about the minimum wage for any employee. Consider the fact that it is illegal in the US to ask an interviewee their age, marital status, and family status, among other things.

None of that is illegal. You can ask, but you can't discriminate.

https://ocs.yale.edu/get-prepared/illegal-interview-question...

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#339

Post by krnlpnc »

gwright wrote: post #322
krnlpnc wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. I’m talking about the minimum wage for any employee. Consider the fact that it is illegal in the US to ask an interviewee their age, marital status, and family status, among other things.

Any employee? Part time job for a teenager?

s/?/.
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