Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true • Hacker News Board

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#161

Post by asdff » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:47 PM UTC

commandlinefan wrote: post #36

buboard wrote: post #26

That doesn't prove the wage rises were needed, though.

All it seems to prove is that the hikes haven't caused problems yet. And we'd better all hope that they don't, because it actually is impossible to lower the minimum wage, no matter what.

I really wonder if this narrative existed the last probably 30 times minimum wage was raised with (presumably) no adverse effects that I or anyone else can parse out. Yet the 31st time minumum wage is raised comes around, and an ominous cloudy fear falls over neoliberal news outlets. Funny how that works.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#162

Post by cosmodisk » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:49 PM UTC

tyri_kai_psomi wrote: post #106

xinsight wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it is difficult, then it's not a very good business. Serious question: Why would you want to run a business that can only survive by paying people poverty wages?

I don't mean this offensively, but I had to roll my eyes at this one. This is the exact type of question I would expect from a tech startup focused board.

It's not a bad question per se. I've met so many people who complain how bad it is for their business because of low margins and etc. For instance, I'd never even consider starting a retail business,as unless you have economies of scale or sell water in the middle of a desert, you'd have to count every penny. However, having said that,I'm more than happy that people start all sorts of businesses,as otherwise we'd all end up selling CDOs to each other...

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#163

Post by scarejunba » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:51 PM UTC

pge wrote: post #64

scarejunba wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you mind quickly summarizing what that plot is telling us? I looked at it but it looks like I've got to read more of the paper before I understand it.

The plot is showing that there is a negative selection bias in the reporting of stories about minimum wage. That is, that stories suggesting that increasing minimum wage has negative effects (increases unemployment, etc) are overreported relative to stories showing a positive effect from an increase in minimum wage. I am only repeating what the paper says; I don't claim to have validated their methodology or sources.

Much appreciated.

And thank you to killjoywashere for selecting out the part of the paper that answers my question; gowld for reformatting appropriate to my mobile device.

Apologies for not replying directly. I have a commenting rate-limiter applied to my account.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#164

Post by blix » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:52 PM UTC

asdff wrote: post #152

kuzimoto wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, larger companies are probably way better equipped to deal with raising the minimum wage. This will just hurt small/medium business.

It will hurt small/medium businesses that can't afford to not exploit their workers. If your business plan is reliant on having an artificially high staff due to exploiting an artificially low wage, then you don't have much of a business plan at all. "But what of all the poor businesses engaged in a race to the bottom to maximize personal profit?" Let's not think of the parasites here.

It's not like Amazon/Walmart don't exploit workers, they just do it farther away. And are you really claiming they are not engaged in a race to the bottom? McDonalds is going to be better positioned to invest in automated ordering kiosks than any independent diner... is this because they are a beacon of chivalrous capitalism, or because they have been much better at exploitation?

This is the weirdest defense of oligopoly. I've never understood it.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#165

Post by scarejunba » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:53 PM UTC

apcragg wrote: post #92

pge wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The plot is showing that there is a negative selection bias in the reporting of stories about minimum wage. That is, that stories suggesting that increasing minimum wage has negative effects (increases unemployment, etc) are overreported relative to stories showing a positive effect from an increase in minimum wage. I am only repeating what the paper says; I don't claim to have validated their methodology or sources.

That is an incomplete summary. Their conclusion is that despite this larger than normal selection bias, the minimum wage appears to have no impact on unemployment. The paper's abstract, discussion, and summary all mention this as part of the central thesis - why leave it out?

I think summaries (by their nature) must leave something out. Considering the abstract mentions what you said (and that it's reasonable for me to have read the abstract), I think it was reasonable for the responder to focus their attention on the plot alone (which was the focus of my question).

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#166

Post by cosmodisk » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:55 PM UTC

asdff wrote: post #149

hinkley wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which in almost any other conversation would be called extortion.

It really shows you whose interests a politician is working to advance when they state how much Americans love their private extortion plans.

And yet people go and vote for them with hopes that some random real estate billionaire will bring prosperity to their homes. The entire thing would collapse after first election if people would vote with brains instead of feelings.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#167

Post by pbhjpbhj » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:56 PM UTC

noja wrote: post #55

JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We inflation-adjust social security benefits annually, we could also do the same for minimum wage.

Would that defeat the point of inflation?

The point of inflation is to reduce the wages paid to poor people?

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#168

Post by pwthornton » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:59 PM UTC

How many of the people arguing for keeping the minimum wage unchanged were arguing that in good faith?

In general, increasing pay into people at the bottom of the ladder has a much bigger economic effect than the opposite. Reasonable increases in the minimum wage, particularly ones that track inflation and cost of living are not going to harm the economy.

As many have pointed out, the minimum wage in many places has been eroded for years by inflation, so increasing it is really just making up for a lack of indexing on it.

The best solution appears to be to raise the minimum wage to a level that can support a person without government assistance and index it for inflation.

The reality for us every-day workers is that either the minimum wage is increased or we'll have to make up for it in taxes that support programs to compensate for the lack of a liveable wage.

We are much more likely to get a better deal via the minimum age than we are via the tax system; the latter of which is heavily skewed in favor of the wealthy and corporations. It's not big corporations paying non-liveable wages who will be paying to cover food stamps.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#169

Post by macintux » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 9:59 PM UTC

xyzzyz wrote: post #50

CharlesColeman wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Some businesses cannot be profitable and therefore will not exist at certain minimum wages, though. It's also worth noting that some businesses probably can't be profitable without chattel slavery, though it's hard to find examples since the practice has been illegal for so long. > The US minimum wage is a big part of why manufacturing jobs have moved out of the US, for instance. No. I'd say the bigger part of the…

> Americans would starve and die of exposure on those wages. No, they wouldn’t. Americans survived on wages lower than that in the past. They would simply have to adjust their lifestyle to look more like the one of Bangladeshi —- unless you assume that Americans are somehow extremely inept compared to Bangladeshi.

You can’t be serious.

The only way to survive on $600/year is to live somewhere that’s a viable income. There’s nowhere in the US where you can do that, unless you count unofficial homeless encampments, and I’d wager anyone living there who only brought in $600/year in government benefits and other sources would quickly die.

Re: Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

#170

Post by ajross » Mon, Nov 25, 2019, 10:00 PM UTC

downerending wrote: post #150

mullingitover wrote: post #9

Minimum wage isn't just flat for a decade, it's not being adjusted for inflation. This means minimum wage workers have been getting a pay cut over time. The debate isn't just whether we should raise minimum wage, it's whether we should be cutting it. By allowing it to remain stagnant we're making the default decision to cut.

Some would say that the debate is whether raising minimum wage even has a net beneficial effect for those at the bottom of society. The fact that we still have no clarity after looking at this closely for decades suggests that it's probably close to a wash, randomly benefiting some of the poor at the expense of others.

Sorry, can you cite some of the "Some" who would say that? I'm not aware of any serious research showing that minimum wage laws actually hurt "some of the poor" (I mean, like all regulation, they aren't perfectly targetted), but would be curious to see it.