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Black Tide in Brazil

correspondent.afp.com

31–40 of 62 posts

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#32

That is an amazing amount of love and care for brazilians to go out onto the beaches and "pick up" oil. I can't even fathom americans doing that.

Americans absolutely did support the cleanup efforts of the BP spill in the gulf... the 24/7 news cycle was talking about it for months.

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turning communications equipment off is all that's necessary to disappear from radar?

Not exactly... turning off radios would prevent inadvertent/automatic transmissions disabling transponders would reduce footprint on more modernized port control radars not using radar from ownship reduces the chance of being seen all these together would render the ship's ELINT footprint down to an old school blob on whatever radar plot that's about as anonymous as you can get without active countermeasures and thos…

Add in transmitting a false AIS signal. Illegal but not hard to do.

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#35

A bit of local context. The Brazilian president accused Green Peace in staging the accident. Also according to Bolsanaro fish are not dumb and if they see oil they are going to avoid it (that was a real treasure for memes).

Can they see the oil? I read mobile fish can avoid it, but shellfish and such can't move that fast if they're already in it. https://www.itopf.org/knowledge-resources/documents-guides/e...

Is more about taste than sight

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#36
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right on. Chemical analysis has already confirmed that the oil comes from Venezuelan fields, and the quantity is smaller than you’d expect, they are currently investigating a handful of suspect ships, but most likely the responsible one would have had its comm equipment turned off and hence not recorded by radar.

Turning communications equipment off is all that's necessary to disappear from radar?

The hard limit on naval radar is the horizon which is determined by the height of the mast it's mounted on so much of the sea's surface at any given time isn't actually covered by radar. Even when a ship happens to be on radar there's no indication of what ship it is without a transponder like AIS.

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#37
post #8
post #3

Total especutlation mode about the origin of this disaster: Venezuela is suffering oil export sanctions. When that kind of sanction happens it's not uncommon to transport oil in ships with "rented" flags or no flags to ports of close countries, so the oil is incorporated to that country's production and can be sold. It is a tiny quantity, but generate some money to some people. As everything clandestine, this transpo…

You’re right on. Chemical analysis has already confirmed that the oil comes from Venezuelan fields, and the quantity is smaller than you’d expect, they are currently investigating a handful of suspect ships, but most likely the responsible one would have had its comm equipment turned off and hence not recorded by radar.

Why doesn't the huge, expensive, sophisticated, and quite useless US Navy interdict these mystery ships? You only need the permission of a ship's registered country to interdict it if that ships is flying a true flag. Otherwise it's just pirates. This would give the USN a worthwhile mission for the first time in decades.

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#38
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder when the middle class and the entrepreneurs will realize the price was too high for the promise of reforms. I won't comment on other countries but the 2018 elections in Brazil are a warning for all people that think voting for an "outsider" is the way to solve problems. Fun fact, Bolsonaro has been a politician for 28 years but still ran the campaign on the "outsider" message. Reason #1 I'm avoiding the news…

Economically Brazil has been considerably better since he got elected and most things seem to be moving in the right direction. What exactly is this cost that you mentioned?

The guy has been in office for 10 months. The projected 2019 GDP growth is less than actual 2018 growth. Latest available unemployment rate was the same as the rate from the year prior. Which aspect of the Brazilian economy strikes you as considerably better?

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#39
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder when the middle class and the entrepreneurs will realize the price was too high for the promise of reforms. I won't comment on other countries but the 2018 elections in Brazil are a warning for all people that think voting for an "outsider" is the way to solve problems. Fun fact, Bolsonaro has been a politician for 28 years but still ran the campaign on the "outsider" message. Reason #1 I'm avoiding the news…

Economically Brazil has been considerably better since he got elected and most things seem to be moving in the right direction. What exactly is this cost that you mentioned?

Debatable at best.

1- Employment is slightly increasing but still tragically low. Whatever gains in employment are coming from loss of worker rights.

2- Record historical inequality and increasing means unavoidable civil unrest in the future

3- Inflation is down due to idle capacity, not increasing production

4- Stock market is up at the cost of (the promise of) privatization of oil and profitable public companies

5- Goods and services consumption going up with mean household income going down means people are selling dinner to buy lunch - the government is allowing people to spend their government pension deposits again. Didn't work for long when they did it in 2018, won't work now

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not exactly... turning off radios would prevent inadvertent/automatic transmissions disabling transponders would reduce footprint on more modernized port control radars not using radar from ownship reduces the chance of being seen all these together would render the ship's ELINT footprint down to an old school blob on whatever radar plot that's about as anonymous as you can get without active countermeasures and thos…

Can you tell us more about the active countermeasures? How do they work and what makes them very obvious?

That is “stealth”. It’s obvious because it is expensive and secret tech. But also because if you look at the ship you see a ship, whereas the radar shows an albatross or something small. Transitions are also notable for radar operators that are really paying attention. A ship that turns into a goose and then back into a ship, for example.
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