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Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

thetyee.ca

211–220 of 241 posts

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#211
post #130

The crux of the matter is that we need to drive thermodynamics backward at planetary scale. This is a fancy way of saying that we need to increase electricity generation by an integer factor beyond current global demand without producing net CO2. The list of existing energy sources capable of scaling like this that don't rely on burning carbon is extremely short: nuclear fission. I don't see any possibility of the re…

Unfortunately there are no realists in a position to really affect Government investment. Why is every nation not committing an investment on the scale of the Apollo/Manhattan Projects? Politically it should be sell-able as a near-term investment (jobs) and future prosperity (cheaper renewable energy). Governments should be putting billions into fusion, wave/tidal generation (nothing should be too expensive), upgradi…

Funding aside, the Manhattan & Apollo projects were (by comparison) simple, with clear objectives, and a compelling rationalisation.

Manhattan needed to build a vialbe, air-transportable, nuclear bomb. It arrived at two independent designs, both effective to task, and succeeded in assimilating materials for at least several more weapons (on the order of 6 IIRC), over the course of WWII. The rationalisation was both defeating, and not losing military supremacy over, an enemy. (Germany was also working on a nuclear weapon.)

Apollo needed to land a man on the Moon and return him, alive, to Earth. Rationales varied, but one compelling argument was as a proof-of-capability of US technological capacity as regards missile design, reliability, control, targeting, with the additional constraints of solving life-support systems challenges capable of keeping meat-puppets alive for a week in space. Drag-racing and Lunar golf were bonus stretch targets.

Each project was relatively independent of other complex technological systems, and wasn't concerned with a tightly-coupled, long-term, widespread integration. Manhattan's gadgets needed to fit in Bock's Car's bomb bay. Apollo's designs, once the fundamental mission was completed, were largely abandoned. Several technologies survived, but the project as a whole did not.

Both projects saw numerous exceedingly close approaches with disaster. Manhattan's tail-tickling proved unwise, the US are still cleaning up Hanford (and as yet have no final management plan), and there were several near-catastrophic handling mishaps at Oak Ridge. (Though in total the project was remarkably smooth.)

Apollo's record was, to my knowledge, far worse. An entire crew were lost in ground testing, one very nearly in space (13), and missions 8, 11, 12, and probably others, saw one or more potentially fatal / mission-loss incidents and events. Margins for safety were extraordinarily slim.

(Subsequent history with the Space Shuttle and two total vehicle losses shows that risks persisted decades later.)

The Global Energy Sustainability Project is far more complex.

It is building not a simple tool or one-shot mission, but a total system. That system needs to be tighly integrated, as an integral component, of the worldwide technical economic system. It needs to function from now until doomsday, or at least until some replacement regime is established. It challenges what's arguably been the most lucrative and critical as well as geopolitically salient sector of the global economy, which is to say it upsets a vast set of economic, financial, political, military, and national interests. Pains are localised, benefits are diffuse.

Success depends on global coordination and cooperation, or barring that, sacrifice and effectiveness on local scales which counters the actions of any defectors.

This is almost certainly the Biggest of the Big Problems.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bets based on advanced technology not presently in at least the practical demonstration phase are ... highly unlikely. Fortunately in the case of solar, we're already in the active commercial use phase, and there is a long-term declining cost trend. Whether that's sufficient remains to be seen, but it's promising. Nuclear has tended to become more expensive over time, as consequences of utilisation become more appare…

I agree that it's probably on the verge of Sci-fi, but one can dream :) I'm not sure we should care about costs now. It sounds really lame on the long run to say to past generations that "we could have changed things, but it wasn't cost effective, anyways good luck rebooting the Golf stream and stuff"

My argument is that the time for dreaming is past.

We need to do. Or plan / prepare for the alternatives.

Sustaining a modest research program on potential long bets is probably defensible. But don't hinge all hopes on this.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#213
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The list of existing energy sources capable of scaling like this ... solar and wind are scaling much better than every prediction, for many years now, yet somehow that's not good enough for the people who claim to be realists. Odd.

Solar and wind are scaling quickly. But do you know what is scaling even quicker? Natural gas. The year-over-year growth in natural gas deployment is greater than the entire historic deployment of solar power. Let that sink in. I'll be optimistic when the total fossil fuel footprint stops growing. Hell, I'll be optimistic when it stops growing exponentially . We aren't there. We aren't anywhere near there. We don't h…

Natural gas is at best a bridge technology.

Resources are ultimately more limited than oil, and have grown only through extremely expensive, and environmentally damaging (groundwater contamination, earthquakes) hydrofracking. Simply on a financial basis that appears unsustainable.

Natgas has and will help smooth the transition. It's not a stable goal, however. Lifeboat, not safe land.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#214
post #113

The crux of the matter is that we need to drive thermodynamics backward at planetary scale. This is a fancy way of saying that we need to increase electricity generation by an integer factor beyond current global demand without producing net CO2. The list of existing energy sources capable of scaling like this that don't rely on burning carbon is extremely short: nuclear fission. I don't see any possibility of the re…

There's a limited number of spots to stick a nuclear reactor. So it's hard to actually scale that up.

Of the many strikes against nuclear power, a paucity of siting locations is almost certainly well down the list.

Something I say as no particular fan (though also not a doctrinaire opponent) of nuclear power.

The fact that scaling nuclear beyond its present contribution would require vast numbers of plants, many in politically (and otherwise) unstable regions, is a much larger concern in my book. We're committing to decades to millennia of addressing consequences in regions where stability is often measured in years, sometimes months.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#215
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, entirely safe, that's why nobody is living in Chernobyl and they're using robots to enter Fukashima. Totally safe....

Hydro power generation has killed over a hundred thousand people, yet we are still building, and using hydro dams. Nuclear is safe compared to the alternatives.

And the region in which those hundred-thousand-plus were killed ... is now home to some 7 millions of souls.

Hydro power, for much the same organisational, political, and disaster response reasons as nuclear, which is to say, non-technical reasons, can be exceedingly risky.

But once the immediate hazard is resolved, over the course of months to years, the region returns to normal.

The immediate innundation from Banqiao was responsible for ~25k deaths. The additional 100k or so came from starvation and disease due to widespread disruption of the region, and a grossly inadequate disaster response plan and capability.

Organisational / institutional failures at Chernobyl, Fukushima, and for that matter, Hanford and Sellafield, were and are massive contributing factors. You cannot engineer around those.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#216
post #152
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar panels? Even on the most heavily clouded days mine generate over 50% of nominal. And on that very rare windless, deeply overcast week, maybe we adapt and just don't run the tumble dryer or aircon for a week? Most house energy usage is pretty gratuitous and if you cut it back to lighting, refrigeration and entertainment you could get by on a few kWh a day. If you absolutely must have 100% uptime then $1000 will…

> If you absolutely must have 100% uptime then $1000 will get you a diesel generator which would keep the batteries topped off if you ever need it Ah, great, so every house that has food in a freezer or likes to stay warm in winter now has to buy and maintain a diesel generator. Welcome to the great new renewable world.

There are other potential adaptations.

We've developed a food distribution network dependent on a cold chain -- not only the ability to refrigerate or freeze product, but to maintain constant refrigeration from the process point to retail to the home until final consumption. This is not an inevitability, and it need not remain standard practice into the future.

There are other methods of preserving food. They sacrifice convenience, freshness, and nutritional quality, but are tractable.

Canning, fermentation, drying, and other preservation methods can make many foods long-term stable.

Certain foods, especially fruit and vegetables, may need to be sourced fresh. This is where local production can be appropriate, including home or neighbourhood gardens.

If meat is still to be consumed, the traditional method of keeping it fresh was to ship it live. Canned or salt beef and port were common prior to widespread refrigeration.

How widely or enthusiastically such changes might be adopted becomes an interesting question. But as a long-term adaptation, this could well be a potential path.

One key mindset to looking at radical changes to environment and resource regimes is to recognise that changes in underlying costs, abundance, and/or suitability may be radical changes in products, practices, and behaviours.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, technology like Direct Air Capture requires about 250kWh as a theoretical minimum to capture 1 ton of CO2. Current methods require about 600kWh. Meanwhile, one ton of coal generates about 2,500kWh of electricity.

This is not correct. Per the DAC literature I've seen, the fully burdened energy cost to capture a ton of CO2 is around 12 MWh. The numbers you provided appear to violate the laws of thermodynamics on their face, whereas the 12 MWh number does not. The 250kWh number likely only accounts for the operational energy requirements, not the fully burdened energy requirements of creating the consumable inputs.

[deleted]

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with wind and solar is that they both require extensive spatially distributed energy collection systems, storage to overcome intermittent generation, and complex transmission networks to collect, manage, and distribute the electrical power. It seems unlikely that such can be secured in a world where conflict is steadily increasing, and where a tiny, but significant, percentage of the population is bent on…

I agree. Sooner or later, we'll need to have a serious discussion about nuclear energy. It's the best way out of this mess.

Annnnnd the downvotes start. What is it about nuclear energy that terrifies the ycombinator crowd?

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#219
post #175
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? How is it different from any other aspect of government regulation? In the US at least, the government already has its finger on the scale by giving tax breaks based on number of children.

Government restriction of the biologic imperative to reproduce would represent perhaps the most extreme interventions into the private lives of individuals that one could imagine.

Again, why? There are many dozens of rights that I value more highly than the right to reproduce in the face of global ecological catastrophe.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#220
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hydro power generation has killed over a hundred thousand people, yet we are still building, and using hydro dams. Nuclear is safe compared to the alternatives.

And the region in which those hundred-thousand-plus were killed ... is now home to some 7 millions of souls. Hydro power, for much the same organisational, political, and disaster response reasons as nuclear, which is to say, non-technical reasons , can be exceedingly risky. But once the immediate hazard is resolved, over the course of months to years, the region returns to normal. The immediate innundation from Banq…

If Japan had hundreds of acres of solar panels back when the tsunami occurred, they would be resting out on the ocean floor, leaching heavy metals into the water. Definitely better, right?
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