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Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

thetyee.ca

191–200 of 241 posts

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#191
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A week's supply of biofuels, given our current energy use of 101 quadrillion BTU/year, and assuming 100% efficiency, is 2 quadrillion BTU. At the peak of our production, we produced around 0.2 quadrillion BTU worth of biodiesel. This means that a week's supply of biofuels is around 10 years of production. We produce around ten times as many gallons of ethanol as biodiesel. It has about half as many BTUs, which impl…

> Because we do whatever costs less. Nuclear plants are expensive. On the other hand, so is storage. It's not actually clear which one is going to cost less in the long term, Right. It's really worth asking why exactly nuclear plants are so expensive to build, and why they were so much cheaper in the past. The plants that French built in the 70s and 80s were produce much cheaper electricity than fossils and renewable…

> Right. It's really worth asking why exactly nuclear plants are so expensive to build, and why they were so much cheaper in the past.

I tend to think it's a combination of factors that mostly boil down to bureaucratic inefficiency and various forms of political corruption.

The problem is there are multiple groups who profit from it being expensive.

First you have the people actually receiving the money. Contractors and unions. If it costs ten times as much they get a ten times bigger contract with ten times more hours.

Then you have the competitors. The fossil fuel industry is committed to ensuring that nuclear reactors are "sufficiently" regulated.

And the problem is there's nobody on the other side. The people paying the money are the utility ratepayers. They're not organized.

Maybe the key to fixing it is recognizing that the two groups in favor of higher costs aren't actually aligned. The contractors and unions want lucrative construction work, the competitors don't want construction at all. But if nobody's building then you don't get a big fat contract, you get a big fat nothing.

But at the root it's a political problem. Existing laws make construction expensive. Either fix them or expect it to continue to be expensive.

> If you build nuclear, there's no need to build storage, really.

Solar is cheaper than anything when the sun is shining, and there are a lot of things -- charging electric vehicles is a big one -- that can be demand-shifted into that time period with price incentives. But as soon as you're using it you've got an issue. Sunlight doesn't perfectly align with demand. You need something to get you over the demand peak in the evening. But storage enough to cover the base to peak load differential for two or three hours a day is a whole lot cheaper than needing to cover the full load for the full night.

Interestingly, some of the newer nuclear reactor designs have built-in storage. A molten salt reactor can use hot salt as thermal storage. Let solar handle more of the load during daylight while you put heat from the reactor into a vat of molten salt, then have the extra heat to spin more turbines during the load peak in the evening.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#192
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have the worst imagination. Simply removing a tax break at child number 2 would have a substantial impact.

So now you propose paying for having kids? So only rich or afluent people will have kids. Poor people not only will keep having kids but will also remain poor as they now have to pay? Do you even think before you propose policies?

Whoa, personal attacks will get you banned here, so please don't comment like that!

If you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and use HN as intended, we'd appreciate it.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#193
post #104
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has nothing to do with being a "Malthusian loony". Which of these do you prefer: - >10 billion people living on this planet, depleting resources so that inequality levels will rise while total (real) wealth will decline. - A lot less people than now living on this planet in a way that we can actually permanently get close to the current western standard of living for ~all of them.

> Which of these do you prefer Neither. You, like the author of these articles, left out the third choice: - Continue to improve technology so it can continue to supply increasing real wealth with a smaller ecological footprint. This has already been happening for pretty much the entire history of technology. The computers we are using to have this conversation consume orders of magnitude less power for orders of mag…

By what specific mechanisms does, has, and can technology deliverthose increases?

What are the net gains provided by millionsfold increases in compute capacity and performance? How much such gains remain?

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#194

So much I want to say here... I'm part of the choir to whom the author is preaching but I find this weak tea. (Although he's not preaching, he's RFC'ing his assumptions.) If we grant that fusion isn't around the corner (and I don't, see "Fusion in a magnetically-shielded-grid inertial electrostatic confinement device" https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.01788 abstract: "Theory for a gridded inertial electrostatic confinement…

"RFC'ing"?

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#195

point 11 on part 2: a smooth transition of the global population to 2-3B. Over how long a time-frame does Dr.Rees expect this to happen? Thanos only killed half the population. Mao only starved ~40M/50M. He has no imagination for what could be with all the will and imagination of a generation faced with dire results and instead draws bleak resolutions that sound like the aftermath of a WW3.

The usual mechanisms are the historic threats to mankind: famine, pestilance, war, disorder.

Depending on the timeline for achieving a 2-3B population, any period of less than ~100 years is not attainable without a huge increase in mortality. That's shown in numerous models suggested by the 1970 Limits to Growth project.

In pre-industrial times, and as recently as 1850s Ireland, massive population declines in regional areas were fairly commonplace. The Irish Potato Famine, through direct mortality and emigration, reduced the population of Ireland from 8 million to 4, over a period of 60 years:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)#/medi...

Ireland has still not regained its 1850 population peak.

Note too that Ireland's population had increased tremendously from the 3 millions of 1740. The potato primed the trap the blight triggered.

There were numerous other notable famines in the 19th century, several in China, then as Ireland under strong British influence. These continued through the 20th century, including in both Nationalist and Communist regimes. The Ukranian Holdomor struck at the same time as famines elsewhere in the world, and was somewhat contemporaneous with the Dust Bowl in the US, a localised famine, in which there was some starvation, though largely manifested as a massive internal migration (see especially Steinbeck's The Grapes of Wrath).

The people who realise this is a potential path are largely wholly aware of just how horrific the prospect is, both in direct misery and the all-but-certain breakdown of all social, governmental, commercial, and technical institutions. While there are some who embrace this, they tend to be extreme outliers.

Most see this as the scenario to avoid at all costs.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#196
post #138

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGt4XwBbCvA

(Just FYI, I automatically downvote links that have no context or description.) "Jancovici : Can we save energy, jobs and growth at the same time?" 08/01/2018 Jean-Marc Jancovici Jancovici's conference in ENS School of Paris - 08/01/2018 > The depletion of natural resources, with oil to start with, and the need for a stable climate, will make it harder and harder to pursue economic growth as we know it. It has now be…

Thank you.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#197
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting 250 milliseconds and needing 15,000 from? Wikipedia claims US yearly electricity consumption is 4,090 TWh, and Bath County stores 24 TWh, with a generation capacity of 3,003 MW. That comes out as enough storage for a couple of days worth of US electricity use. Obviously you'd need 3 more to cover generation capacity.

Ah, I rechecked, I actually lost 2 orders of magnitude. It's 25 seconds, not 250 milliseconds. However, you lost 3 orders of magnitude: Bath County is 24 GWh, not TWh. My calculation was done under assumption of 101 quads of annual US energy use, but I'll redo this calculation with assumption more charitable to your argument. US uses only 4090 TWh worth of electricity, which is about 13 quads, but it also uses about…

Plus with a lot of intra day seasonability.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#198
post #124

This makes me think we should be investing a lot more into nuclear energy.

No ROI for 10 years at least. Other technologies are getting cheaper, better, faster.

Other technologies may be better economically, but they won't be enough. Every carbon neutral energy option needs to be on the table if we want to survive.

And who knows. If we actually had an effective carbon tax that internalizes the externalities of carbon pollution, nuclear fission might suddenly look very cheap.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#199
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Click to the next article: https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/12/Climate-Crisis-Realis...

...where he effectively advocates to curb economic and population growth. Even if it was desirable, which it is not, it is never going to happen. For the sort of order of magnitude of decarbonisation that is required to meet the climate change requirement, not only to provide the current energy but future growth too, there isn't really any realistic solution other than nuclear energy.

"If something cannot go on forever, it will stop" (Stein's Law).

You might want to think through the implications of that stopping.

Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, my expectation is that we will build habitats which withstand sea level rise and temperature fluctuations, and abandon habitats which cannot be retrofitted to withstand present conditions.

Which is the way humanity has always responded to crisis. They move and adapt.

Or fail to do so.
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