When the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation flip negative, and the deep, multi-decade solar minimum we are about to enter kicks in (it already has begun), we will see temps lower globally (and especially in the northern hemisphere). But of course, with this, we will be dealing with a set of problems much more difficult than warming. Warming is good for crops and humanity. Cold tempe…
Appreciate the unpopular "opinion". The world oscillates. It has so for a long, long time. We should stop polluting not with some agenda to think we'll have an effect on global temperature, but to stop poisoning ourselves.
Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
81–90 of 241 posts
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#82The crux of the matter is that we need to drive thermodynamics backward at planetary scale. This is a fancy way of saying that we need to increase electricity generation by an integer factor beyond current global demand without producing net CO2. The list of existing energy sources capable of scaling like this that don't rely on burning carbon is extremely short: nuclear fission. I don't see any possibility of the re…
>irrational politics around nuclear power Fusion is safe! D: Fusion when?
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#83The effects of climate change will play play out across many localized areas. Some will be dramatically more impacted than others. The impacts will require remediation solutions, some difficult and expensive. Millions will be displaced and affected, and complex engineering challenges will arise. This will not end humanity. The apocalypse is not coming. Humans will adapt because we have no choice. Engineering a soluti…
I throw you into a fire. Will you adapt, because you have no choice?
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#84https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_Compact_Fusion...
The smaller scale might simplify things.
Borrowing from the analogy in the article, fusion is a magnetic field management problem.
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#85In part two is an 11 steps plan: 11. A global population strategy to enable a smooth descent to the two to three billion that could live comfortably indefinitely within the biophysical means of nature. Another anti-humanist Malthusian loony. It’s probably the effect of Vancouver’s dump weather. Ignore.
It has nothing to do with being a "Malthusian loony". Which of these do you prefer: - >10 billion people living on this planet, depleting resources so that inequality levels will rise while total (real) wealth will decline. - A lot less people than now living on this planet in a way that we can actually permanently get close to the current western standard of living for ~all of them.
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#86When the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation flip negative, and the deep, multi-decade solar minimum we are about to enter kicks in (it already has begun), we will see temps lower globally (and especially in the northern hemisphere). But of course, with this, we will be dealing with a set of problems much more difficult than warming. Warming is good for crops and humanity. Cold tempe…
[1] https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=448
[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sci...
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#87Carbon-emitting generation:
35% Natural Gas
3% Coal
11% "Unspecified" (lets be pessimistic and assume all of that is fossil fuel)
Non-carbon emitting (or carbon neutral):
11% Large Hydro
9% Nuclear
31% "Renewables" (solar, wind, small hydro, etc)
Yes, transportation is still almost entirely fossil fuel based. Many homes and businesses use natural gas for heat. Industry uses fossil fuels as well in significant amounts. None of these can be ignored.
But de-carbonizing electricity is a crucial first step.
[0] https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_sys...
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#88The crux of the matter is that we need to drive thermodynamics backward at planetary scale. This is a fancy way of saying that we need to increase electricity generation by an integer factor beyond current global demand without producing net CO2. The list of existing energy sources capable of scaling like this that don't rely on burning carbon is extremely short: nuclear fission. I don't see any possibility of the re…
> The list of existing energy sources capable of scaling like this ... solar and wind are scaling much better than every prediction, for many years now, yet somehow that's not good enough for the people who claim to be realists. Odd.
Pennsylvania is a fossil fuel economy now, through fracking, and we are idiosyncratically beholden to it in our federal election. Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Ukraine, Venezuela, Mexico, Norway, Denmark, Sudan, the Middle East and Iran... these are all volatile fossil fuel and mineral extraction economies, they do not export much else to us besides a declining pool of cheap labor or in Denmark’s case, cheese.
Many countries aspire to be mineral economies, not the other way around, life is much simpler that way. That some places extract minerals from the earth, and others “extract minerals” by converting their control of the worldwide supply of attention into ads, and that the Earth extractors are in Pennsylvania and other parts of the world while the Attention extractors are in San Francisco and Los Angeles, is also a big part of the issue.
It is indeed more complicated than “who’s to blame, consumers or producers?” This forum is constantly full of people whose opinions boil down to, “I should get paid for my thing, and everyone’s else’s thing can go suck it.” It isn’t workable. This guy isn’t advancing a workable politic for global action against global warming.
And yet neither is solar power, despite obviously fixing the carbon problem. They do not make solar panels in Indonesia or Iran or Saudi Arabia or Mexico or Brazil or Sudan, that’s a billion people right there who depend on fossil fuel economics. What do you think their opinion is about solar panels? Making solar panels is hard, squeezing oil out of the ground is easy.
And if there’s anything history has taught us, people will fight violently to protect not their profitable means of making money, but their easy means of making money. That’s the problem dude.
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know population will decline, but not as a policy. If it happens naturally then it's perfectly ok. The fact that politicians get to decide how many kids or even if you can have kids is a scary thought.
People have the worst imagination. Simply removing a tax break at child number 2 would have a substantial impact.
Re: Don’t Call Me a Pessimist on Climate Change. I Am a Realist
#90The crux of the matter is that we need to drive thermodynamics backward at planetary scale. This is a fancy way of saying that we need to increase electricity generation by an integer factor beyond current global demand without producing net CO2. The list of existing energy sources capable of scaling like this that don't rely on burning carbon is extremely short: nuclear fission. I don't see any possibility of the re…
You sounds like the typical advocator of oil pipelines over protected land and I'm sure you know how that ended up. Can we build safe pipelines? Yes. Do we? No. Why? Because of the human factor, which comes down to greed, stupidity, and laxation of regulation.
This is the same exact case for nuclear. Already we see that a majority of nuclear power plants in the US are operating at almost 2x the design life and will likely get additional extensions. This is done by continued laxation of regulation.
And this is in the US where I would expect the strictest of regulation. When the rest of the world sees the US doing this, it sets a precedence for them to follow and I'm sure other countries will have even less strict regulations and inspections. It's really only a matter of time until we have another disaster.