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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#401
post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lose half the battery capacity in cold weather. EVs are less efficient at highway speeds. Two things rural half ton trucks need. Add to that the loss of carrying capacity due to the battery weight. I'm not sure if motors and battery weigh a similar amount as a drivetrain and fuel, I hope so. If it's only city travel it's fine but that's not what a truck was made for. I'm all for electric vehicles and I hope the techn…

EVs are less efficient at highway speeds Huh? Less efficient than what? There is no way it is less efficient than an ICE.

Less efficient than the same vehicle at lower speeds, I assume. But, that's true of every vehicle...so, it's a weird argument.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#402
post #399

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

- simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost to natural gas in the long term (LNG build-out is only now beginning) I have a feeling natural gas plants will not be built out to the extent you are imagining, because solar, wind, and lithium-ion storage are now competitive, and still getting cheaper very quickly.

Annually the world adds more power to the grid. Renewables are maybe 25-30% of it. We need to reach 120-130% where new demand is all met by renewables and we are shuting down coal and gas plants.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#403
post #399

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

- simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost to natural gas in the long term (LNG build-out is only now beginning) I have a feeling natural gas plants will not be built out to the extent you are imagining, because solar, wind, and lithium-ion storage are now competitive, and still getting cheaper very quickly.

The thing about evil capitalists is that they like to have low cost equipment and operations and high price outputs.

IF you exclude government subsidies, these evil capitalists that are out for a buck are not rushing into implementing what you are talking about.

Which means that: It is not nearly as close to parity as you apparently believe that it is.

I mean no insult, but: If evil capitalists are not rushing towards doing it without government subsidies - it isn't as close to parity as you think it is. YMMV.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#404
post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are some points about pickups that appeal to me and maybe to others: (1) Bumpers. Pickup trucks (PUTs) tend to have actual, steel bumpers (often chrome plated which indicates that they are steel), both front and rear. Passenger cars have, instead, plastic over some structures for crumple zones or some such. So, if run into something, say, a deer crossing the road in the middle of the night, then are better off w…

You’ve made a good case for pickup trucks for people who need them, but I highly doubt most pickup truck buyers need all of these features. Most people aren’t carrying 1000+ lbs loads or going off road or towing anything, so the features that make that life easier don’t apply.

E.g., I like the luggage rack on the top of my SUV: It's terrific for carrying home a Christmas tree. Otherwise I never use it. It wasn't an expensive option: A rental once of a truck to carry home a tree would cost more than the option.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

Lose half the battery capacity in cold weather. EVs are less efficient at highway speeds. Two things rural half ton trucks need. Add to that the loss of carrying capacity due to the battery weight. I'm not sure if motors and battery weigh a similar amount as a drivetrain and fuel, I hope so. If it's only city travel it's fine but that's not what a truck was made for. I'm all for electric vehicles and I hope the techn…

A vehicle that has a towing capacity in the tens of thousands of pounds can have a big battery bank, and so it could have longer range than a small sedan. Of course the weight of the battery itself reduces range, and carrying a load will reduce range, and bigger batteries increase cost, but I suspect the reason Ford is introducing an electric truck in 2021 (and Tesla has one coming, too) is because they've done the math and it's finally starting work out right for some category of their customer base.

The truck market is downright scientific, and Ford is the leader in that market. They serve a lot of fleet customers and have huge amounts of data about how those fleets are used. They must have found a segment that will find electric vehicles cost-effective, otherwise they'd put it off another year or two or three. It's not the average truck buyer that's pushing them toward electric (there's a deep vein of stupid in that market that loves big, noisy, smelly, engines), but I'm confident they aren't doing it out of the goodness of their hearts. I believe Ford making an electric truck means there's a market for electric trucks, whatever their limitations, at the price they can deliver them.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're implicitly talking about a classic style 2-door pickup truck, but most consumer trucks these days seem to have four doors. Small two door pickup trucks are even more extinct, at least in the US. I remember seeing a new Mazda pickup truck in the showroom, probably a B-series circa 1995, and it was tiny, had steel wheels, a relatively long bed, and probably a manual transmission. Price was maybe half wha…

> I think you're implicitly talking about a classic style 2-door pickup truck, but most consumer trucks these days seem to have four doors. Replace the shortened bed in the back with a cover and a third row of seating, though, and you have an SUV that's still going to be even heavier and more expensive. > Small two door pickup trucks are even more extinct, at least in the US. Very true, and as a small pickup lover th…

Well, I would say there isn't a huge penalty for the benefits, and it's nice to have 110% of your maximum expected needs covered rather than 80%. And big vehicles keep getting better and better fuel economy, plus scaled down versions aren't significantly cheaper.

I think a major issue is that most of the cost of a car is not in the quantity of metal used to make the body/frame. So you aren't going to cut manufacturing costs much by making it smaller. This is probably why nobody can make small cars at a profit in the US. Any additional amount a customer will pay for a larger vehicle goes disproportionately to profit, so it's a win-win for the manufacturer and customer.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#407
post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are some points about pickups that appeal to me and maybe to others: (1) Bumpers. Pickup trucks (PUTs) tend to have actual, steel bumpers (often chrome plated which indicates that they are steel), both front and rear. Passenger cars have, instead, plastic over some structures for crumple zones or some such. So, if run into something, say, a deer crossing the road in the middle of the night, then are better off w…

Different priorities for different people I guess. And also very much dependent on profession & lifestyle. Couple of the points you raised though I thought that's the exact opposite of what I want. Crumple zones - I want that. My life matters more to me than repair cost. And it's missing a second reason for soft exteriors - pedestrian safety. Deers aren't the only thing getting hit. Suspension, brakes etc designed to…

I was just listing some of the advantages I and maybe others see in, say, the Ford and Chevy versions of pickup trucks. So, there are some advantages in utility; the attractions are not all just style and fashion. Yes, there are disadvantages. Welcome to the ubiquitous problem of engineering design trade offs.

I've recently moved from NY to TN -- yup, the fraction of pickup trucks is higher in TN!!! I'm liking TN a LOT better!

> Solid axle are mechanically simpler, but there is a reason most of the world dropped them - they will chew tires on turns. Also prevents nifty stuff like electronic stability control applying variable braking left & right.

The axle HOUSING is solid and is called a "solid axle" instead of an independent suspension. The actual axles that rotate with the wheels are inside the solid housing; there are two, each a "half axle"; they come together in the "center section" which has the "differential" with a "pinion gear", "ring gear", and 4 "spider gears" -- clever device. So, such an axle does not "chew tires" on corners. And anti-lock brakes, etc. are plenty easy, generally a little easier than for independent rear suspensions -- the independent suspensions usually have more linkages to work around. Also, for chewing tires, independent suspensions tend to do this more due to the less good control of castor and camber -- that is, an axle does better keeping the tilt and direction of the wheels where they belong than the linkages in an independent suspension. E.g., might have to have a independent rear suspension "aligned"; with a solid axle (HOUSING) and leaf springs, essentially never have to do this if only because typically there is no means of such adjustment and regarded as no need, either.

Yes, an independent rear suspension has some advantages in traction on uneven surfaces. The key criterion is to reduce "unsprung weigh". E.g., when MB went racing after WWII, they used a rear "swing axle" independent rear suspension with the brakes mounted inboard instead of at the wheels -- all for lower unsprung weight.

Apparently in a relatively heavy vehicle, the extra unsprung weight of a solid axle, rear AND front, causes no serious ride or traction problems.

The struts have cute geometry and do well with castor and camber but are comparatively delicate and with just a little wear give problems.

> Same for the weight of PUTs - the lighter the better due to stopping distance.

The standard model of friction in physics is just a coefficient of friction. So, the force to slide against the friction is just the down force (weight) times the coefficient of friction. So, a vehicle that weights twice as much has twice the friction when the brakes are locked or nearly so (as in anti-lock brakes) and with sufficiently larger brakes should stop as fast as a lighter vehicle. In practice, I'm not sure whether a 2500 pound car or a 4500 pound truck with a 1000 pound load stops in less distance.

> regularly hitting deer

Hit a deer with a good bumper and usually just stop, drag the deer to the side of the road, and keep on going. Been there, done that with my old SUV that does have good front bumpers. With one of those plastic covered crumple zones, maybe are in for $1000 in repairs.

Bumpers are good protection when parallel parked: The guy in front or in rear who parks "by the audio method" will just hit the bumpers and do little or no damage to the truck although there might be damage to his crumple zones. Every time I see a car front or rear end with lots of plastic and no good, strong steel bumpers I think little bumps and $1000 repair bills -- that's just me.

The bumpers are at least just some prudent protection.

Trucks need full frames; now lots of passenger cars have mostly just sheet steel instead. The frames "crumple" less and are "stronger" -- maybe that makes the truck safer in some respects and less good for the passengers in other respects.

Yes, the higher center of gravity of a truck increases the chances of rolling over. My SUV came with a sticker with stark warnings about the threat of roll over. Also it appears that they deliberately put a lot of extra steel in the frame just to lower the center of gravity -- the frame looks like something off the battleship Missouri.

For people who want to do a lot of 80 MPH driving on Interstates, a car of about 3500 pounds, 600+ horsepower, wide tires with especially high coefficient of friction, stiff suspension (so the car won't bounce around), small frontal area, and low aerodynamic coefficient of friction -- maybe Corvette, Camaro, and Mustang are examples -- will be better than a truck. The issues of frontal area and drag coefficient might be huge, for fuel economy and maybe for stability in some winds.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#408

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

In addition to the many other answers I would add- the thrill of owning something that feels vaguely “industrial grade” or heavy duty.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#409
post #403
post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost to natural gas in the long term (LNG build-out is only now beginning) I have a feeling natural gas plants will not be built out to the extent you are imagining, because solar, wind, and lithium-ion storage are now competitive, and still getting cheaper very quickly.

The thing about evil capitalists is that they like to have low cost equipment and operations and high price outputs. IF you exclude government subsidies, these evil capitalists that are out for a buck are not rushing into implementing what you are talking about. Which means that: It is not nearly as close to parity as you apparently believe that it is. I mean no insult, but: If evil capitalists are not rushing toward…

Those evil capitalists are choosing to build offshore wind, without subsidy in the UK. Gas expansion has completely ceased, and based on the last auction round for offshore licences is nearing a point where building new wind is cheaper than keep running existing gas plants. So I expect to see the decline of UK gas start soon. Fossil simply cannot compete on price. It would be even more of a no-brainer price wise, if we didn't have a government stupid enough to cease onshore wind.

Coal is almost completely out of UK generation - the single digit number of plants left spend almost all their time idling as source of last resort. Gas is next. It might survive a little longer as a fill in source used in lieu of battery and storage, again temporarily.

TL;DR Gas is on borrowed time unless it has been given an artificial leg up, i.e. regulation or fossil subsidy.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#410
post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about evil capitalists is that they like to have low cost equipment and operations and high price outputs. IF you exclude government subsidies, these evil capitalists that are out for a buck are not rushing into implementing what you are talking about. Which means that: It is not nearly as close to parity as you apparently believe that it is. I mean no insult, but: If evil capitalists are not rushing toward…

Those evil capitalists are choosing to build offshore wind, without subsidy in the UK. Gas expansion has completely ceased, and based on the last auction round for offshore licences is nearing a point where building new wind is cheaper than keep running existing gas plants. So I expect to see the decline of UK gas start soon. Fossil simply cannot compete on price. It would be even more of a no-brainer price wise, if…

Great! Depending on geography, one would hope this to be the case...
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