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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#281

Post by Gibbon1 »

jdietrich wrote: post #230
OnlineGladiator wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but it solves the problem of traction. The electric vehicle also reduces efficiency by adding weight to the vehicle - being electric doesn't change physics. And being able to remove weight is always preferable to not being able to remove weight.

>The electric vehicle also reduces efficiency by adding weight to the vehicle - being electric doesn't change physics. The battery adds weight, but that's more than outweighed by the tremendous efficiency of an electric drivetrain. The EV equivalent of a gas-guzzler (e.g. a Tesla Model X P90D) still achieves the equivalent of 90mpg.

If the power density of batteries doubles the weight penalty likely disappears. Maybe that's not possible. But as electric vehicle production increasing there is going to be a lot of pressure to achieve that. With funding to match.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#282

Post by cronix »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #251
jdietrich wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The electric vehicle also reduces efficiency by adding weight to the vehicle - being electric doesn't change physics. The battery adds weight, but that's more than outweighed by the tremendous efficiency of an electric drivetrain. The EV equivalent of a gas-guzzler (e.g. a Tesla Model X P90D) still achieves the equivalent of 90mpg.

I am not arguing that an ICE vehicle is more efficient than an electric vehicle - I am saying that adding weight reduces efficiency for both. I was not making a general comparison between the pros and cons of electric vehicles, I was pointing out that one person's comment about better traction for electric vehicles was incredibly disingenuous because ICE vehicles can get the same benefit by simply adding weight - and…

Yes, but on the converse side, the weight adds extra safety, at least with the Model X. Since it's heavier and the center of gravity is lower, they tend to not roll over very easily. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/14/why-the-tesla-model-x-e...

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#283

Post by purple-again »

irrational wrote: post #273
mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

For everyone outside of the biggest cities there are truly rough roads you may need to traverse to see a friend or take your family to the strawberry festival. Remember that a very large part of America looks nothing like the New York (or even Raleigh’s) of the world.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#284

Post by FooHentai »

coliveira wrote: post #250
FooHentai wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) My understanding is that this is a misleading fact - There are less models of SUV in the market than other classes of vehicle, so even if less SUVs, as a class, are sold than other cars, the lack of variance means the total number of a particular model is likely higher than sales of a model in any other class.

That might be true, but total volume of SUV sales in the US is giant. In fact, SUVs are now the standard car model, with sedans being left behind. This is the result of a strong push from auto companies in terms of advertisement and diversification of SUV offers.

Crossovers apparently make up the bulk of it (40%), but yeah those plus pickups and SUVs combined eclipse small, medium, large, and luxury cars combined.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/276506/change-in-us-car-...

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#285

Post by pm90 »

prepend wrote: post #120
nickik wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To be fair, I think the "peak oil scare" was good. That's when we all started to focus and take renewables seriously. I No not really. It made me focus on looking into the 'peak oil' claims and I then realized that was major nonsense and people who proclaim it should not be taken seriously and are instantly discredited in anything they say. Peak oil was a major distraction about the actual issues that should have b…

I remember listening to a Michael Moore book in 00s where he talked about peak oil and had a funny story about a grandparent telling kids what it was like to have petroleum products like plastic and whatnot. He listed all the things made with oil that would disappear. I thought that was a bit crazy so did some research on the topic and realized that he was either full of horse apples, or stupid, or being deceitful, o…

I don't think that's fair. Our methods of determining oil reserves and our technology to extract oil from previously un-economic raw materials (shale oil, tar sands, heavy crude) have improved dramatically, which is the main reason for the glut of oil that we see today.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#286

Post by outworlder »

purple-again wrote: post #283
irrational wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

For everyone outside of the biggest cities there are truly rough roads you may need to traverse to see a friend or take your family to the strawberry festival. Remember that a very large part of America looks nothing like the New York (or even Raleigh’s) of the world.

Sure. But you still see them in cities and parked at very nice driveways. Many trucks have never seen a bad pavement since they were manufactured.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#288

Post by j8014 »

cr0sh wrote: post #151
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #128

Carbon tax Carbon tax Carbon tax It sucks that as BEVs chase ICEs and become more prevalent that will drop demand of oil and therefore oil will get cheaper. I only hope that the higher extraction costs of current reserves make a floor for gasoline that supply/demand curves can't go under fundamentally, and that BEVs can beat that. But a goddamn rational, common sense carbon tax would fix a whole lot of things that ar…

> It sucks that as BEVs chase ICEs and become more prevalent that will drop demand of oil and therefore oil will get cheaper. Well - that's kinda good news (if it works that way) for me and my Jeep... I'd love for there to be a real practical BEV Jeep (or similar off-road vehicle) - but the truth is, the battery tech just isn't there yet. There is no way to fit a battery pack into a vehicle the size of my 2004 TJ (wh…

2003 TJ here. I would be terrified of water and dirt intrusion along with corrosion, wear and tear. It would also be terrifying coming down hard on such a large battery, even with a skid. I inspect everything after a weekend of wheeling, I have no idea how I could do the same with a BEV and feel safe.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#289

Post by OnlineGladiator »

cronix wrote: post #282
OnlineGladiator wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not arguing that an ICE vehicle is more efficient than an electric vehicle - I am saying that adding weight reduces efficiency for both. I was not making a general comparison between the pros and cons of electric vehicles, I was pointing out that one person's comment about better traction for electric vehicles was incredibly disingenuous because ICE vehicles can get the same benefit by simply adding weight - and…

Yes, but on the converse side, the weight adds extra safety, at least with the Model X. Since it's heavier and the center of gravity is lower, they tend to not roll over very easily. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/14/why-the-tesla-model-x-e...

What I said:

> I was not making a general comparison between the pros and cons of electric vehicles

And you replied:

> Yes, but on the converse side...[something that has nothing to do with traction]

Am I unintentionally arguing that electric vehicles are bad? I get the impression people think I hate electric vehicles and are trying to convince me of their virtues, when I was simply pointing out what I thought was a logical flaw from another commenter.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#290

Post by thorwasdfasdf »

clomond wrote: post #206
thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of your reasoning hinges on spread of electric cars and electric planes. If that doesn't come to pass, oil will still be in huge demand. EVs have been in existance for almost a decade and now and they're still only 1% of US car sales: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-electric-veh... If you extrapolate their upward line forward, it'll take an extremely long time before % of EVs becomes greater than…

Discussion around if something that is in the works "may not happen" and therefore negates a particular thesis is wishful thinking. It is a real risk which should be considered, particularly if one's livelihood is dependent on the continued market dynamics of Oil & Gas. Re: Your point on electric car adoption. Your notion of linear adoption is not backed by history. Any kind of breakthrough technology follows adoptio…

That S-Curve your talking about is mostly for software and other technologies that have low barriers to entry. Cars are far harder than software and thus will take much longer for adoption. I mean just look at the production number projections for electric cars. It's not spiking like an S-curve. this is gonna take some time.
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