Driverless cars are stuck in a jam • Hacker News Board

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#501

Post by novok » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 8:22 PM UTC

tomerico wrote: post #398

notJim wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Live in the city and want to go hiking 20 miles away? No reason trains can't solve this. When I lived in NYC there was plenty of hiking off the NJ transit. Popular hiking destinations here in the PNW have huge problems with traffic that would be helped greatly by building rail lines to them.

Why create new rail lines when driverless cars can take you anywhere?

There is a throughput issue. Driverless cars with 4 people a car in a lane (or a bus lane) will do ~6000/people/hour if you are optimistic. A train 'lane' will on the other hand will do 32'000/people/hour. Non-bus lanes do 1500/hour, so a train is equivalent to a 21 lane highway, one way. [0]

I think driverless cars are a great adapter / collector last mile technology for suburbs to go to the train station, but if somewhere has traffic problems now, it will have traffic problems with driverless cars too. After a certain point you need to put in trains.

[0] https://www.theurbanist.org/2016/05/26/the-supply-and-demand...

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#502

Post by pinky1417 » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 8:29 PM UTC

bogle wrote: post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

Maybe we'll call them something besides "cars" in the future, but motorized air conditioned boxes that take us directly from point to point are not going away anytime soon. I'm all in favor of more transportation options and especially, since I'm a cyclist, segregated bike lanes. Heck, when I lived in Boston, I loved being able to ride just about anywhere in the city. On a bicycle, cars were the bane of my existence. I'd love car free streets!

But I'm also a young human who's in pretty good shape. My dad, who uses a walker and has other mobility issues, can't bike and can't walk distances. Buses and trains are options, but he'd have to use them for any distance travel + a wheelchair if he has to go more than a block... not easy.

When I was in Boston, I had the privilege of living in an expensive apartment in the middle of town. I could walk, bike, take a bus, etc. But if you can't afford to live downtown, you're once again restricted to buses and trains.

Of course, we should build up complementary transportation systems but a car-free future isn't going to happen and we shouldn't want it to happen. For many people and use cases, cars can't be beat.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#503

Post by criddell » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 8:36 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #472

criddell wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's what has to change. Good luck with that. People like living in the suburbs. It's where I live and when self-driving cars are available I'll move further out of the city.

Where people live is always a compromise. I want my mansion on 100 acres within a few meters of New York's subway (any station), and no more than 20 minutes from my job (in the midwest - I'd have to average 3x the speed of sound to make that trip time). The above of course is impossible, even if you are the richest person in the world.

Yep. Where I am now is definitely a compromise between convenience and space. A self-driving car will make it possible to increase both my convenience and space.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#504

Post by catalogia » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 8:40 PM UTC

francisofascii wrote: post #360

catalogia wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without populated rural areas to support them, people in cities would start cannibalizing each other within weeks. You seem to have a lot of disdain for people that make your urban lifestyle possible.

OP is referring to people who live in a rural area but commute to/from a city. Sounds like you are talking about farmers.

Such people are participants in the communities they live in. They pay taxes and patronize local businesses. Often the spouses of commuters work in the local community for those local businesses or the local government. The spouse of the city commuter he despises might well be the best English teacher at the local highschool the farmer sends his children too. The children of a commuter might be the friends of the children of a farmer, and often as teenagers will work for some of those farmers. Beyond economic participation, commuters and their families participate in local clubs and churches which benefit those farmers as much as anybody.

By singling out an economically and socially productive segment of rural communities to attack, he is in fact attacking those communities as a whole.

(Incidentally, it's not just a matter of food. Where do you think the concrete, asphalt and timber cities are made out of comes from? I've not seen many quarries or forests in major cities. Rural communities as a whole, not just farmers specifically, make urban life possible.)

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#505

Post by koonsolo » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 8:44 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #307

koonsolo wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same can be said about airplanes, which have a way longer history of automation. Anything in an airplane is automated: takeoff, flying and landing. Pilots make mistakes all the time, but they still need to do things manually to keep their practice high. People just do not want to go in an airplane without any pilots. In metro's it's not that obvious if someone is driving it or not. But airplanes, 'we' want a huma…

"Feeling" has nothing to do with the issue. Current autopilots are generally unable to cope with equipment failures. The pilots are primarily there to deal with unexpected failure modes.

Most of the failures have multiple backups, and most scenarios are also accounted for on how to handle them.

So maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see how autopilots couldn't be programmed to handle most kinds of failures (engine failure etc). Unless the failure is with the autopilot itself of course (which could have backup systems)

Most of the accidents with airplanes are caused by humans (https://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_...). So the real question is if automatic recovery would still be incapable of offsetting all the human errors.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#506

Post by rayiner » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 8:52 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #494

rayiner wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you find a place within easy transit distance of your work, your spouse’s work, a grocery store, your kids’ school or daycare, your kids’ activities, and your kids’ friends’ houses? How do middle class people do all that in a country where cities have made it illegal to build new housing?

Used to be when I lived in a semi-civilised place that the grocers was a half block from my tram stop and three blocks from the house. Trolley carts. https://www.homedepot.com/p/Easy-Wheels-Mini-Shopping-Cart-i...

When I lived in DC I was across the street from a grocery store and kiddy corner from my wife’s work. I was on the other side of town from my daughter’s preschool, and my office was between my daughter’s preschool and my house. (Dropping her off via transit would’ve taken an hour and a half easily.)

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#507

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 8:57 PM UTC

OrangeMango wrote: post #442

zjaffee wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minneapolis has some of the highest percentage of Bike Commuters in the US at around 3.5% only falling after Portland at ~6% and San Francisco which is a nudge closer to 4%. The entire west coast has weather at least as favorable to bike commuting as Amsterdam, yet the percentages of people commuting that way are still far lower than Amsterdam simply because the infrastructure isn't there.

People who think nothing of skiing or snowboarding in winter conditions are convinced that biking is impossible in those same conditions. It makes no sense.

[deleted]

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#508

Post by Daishiman » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 9:09 PM UTC

clarry wrote: post #461

magduf wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Also you always have to decide, do I want to/can I spend 50 Euros today just to go hiking? Or you know you could use your own car. Yes it also costs money but its way less and more spread out. That sounds like someone with very stupid money management. Unfortunately, this is probably the norm. You're surely spending many hundreds of dollars/Euros per month to own and operate a private vehicle: loan, fuel, insurance,…

By my calculation, my car (including running costs) comes down to about 300 eur/month assuming I keep it for 5 years and get at least 1000 eur back when I sell or scrap it. (Reality: I'll probably get more out of it, or keep it longer) Rentals start at around 28eur/day, so if I rented one every weekend (saturday+sunday), that'd be 224 eur plus fuel. Hardly cheaper. Of course I don't travel every weekend, but when I d…

> Owning a car means I don't worry about making reservations, fetching and returning the vehicle, etc. It's always near the door, and I can go on a whim if a sudden need comes up, like it did just today.

But it does mean you worry about parking, scheduled and unplanned repairs, car wash, etc.

I think there's still an untapped marker for on-demand car hire like Zipcar and similar.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#509

Post by jacquesm » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 9:17 PM UTC

magduf wrote: post #485

jacquesm wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars in Europe are as a rule not bought on credit.

Well in that case you're losing potential interest on that money, and also (much more significantly) depreciation.

The last time I got any interest worth mentioning on money was more than a decade ago. Yes, assets depreciate, cars more than most. So don't buy new, buy second hand.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#510

Post by ycombonator » Tue, Oct 29, 2019, 9:23 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #481

ycombonator wrote: post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I have to take my 4 year old who developed a high fever to the emergency room on an electric bike/ scooter ?

Sure, why not. If it is a really life or death emergency you of course need to call an ambulance which I'll assume has license to do things illegal for you to get there faster. Most ER visits are important to soon, but few are now important.

By your methodology everyone visiting an emergency room on a typical night should call ambulance because the cars have been banned in the city ? I know for sure as heck they can walk or ride a fancy electric bike.