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Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

economist.com

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Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#461

Post by clarry »

magduf wrote: post #391
upstandingdude wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in one of those european cities. We have at least six companies offering small electric scooters, even more for bicycles, pedelecs, larger electric scooter, cars, trucks everything. They litter the streets can be rented on a whim with your smartphone, totally hassle free. I used at least four different of these company in the last four days. BUT I still own a car, scooter and my own bicycles because it is supe…

>Also you always have to decide, do I want to/can I spend 50 Euros today just to go hiking? Or you know you could use your own car. Yes it also costs money but its way less and more spread out. That sounds like someone with very stupid money management. Unfortunately, this is probably the norm. You're surely spending many hundreds of dollars/Euros per month to own and operate a private vehicle: loan, fuel, insurance,…

By my calculation, my car (including running costs) comes down to about 300 eur/month assuming I keep it for 5 years and get at least 1000 eur back when I sell or scrap it. (Reality: I'll probably get more out of it, or keep it longer)

Rentals start at around 28eur/day, so if I rented one every weekend (saturday+sunday), that'd be 224 eur plus fuel. Hardly cheaper.

Of course I don't travel every weekend, but when I do, it's more likely to be friday+saturday+sunday, and I do make week-long trips (and longer) a few times a year so it balances out, more or less.

Owning a car means I don't worry about making reservations, fetching and returning the vehicle, etc. It's always near the door, and I can go on a whim if a sudden need comes up, like it did just today.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#462

Post by maxsilver »

bogle wrote: post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

> Consider cities... like London and New York. (snip) Note that I'm only asking about city travel

Generally speaking, I don't see any future where people no longer drive, because the cost of not-driving is so exorbitantly expensive that very few people will ever be able to afford it. EVs are cheap, and get cheaper every day. Dense urban "car-free" housing is already unaffordable for almost everyone, and only gets more expensive every day as development continues.

Unless we get extremely lucky and the housing market crashes hard, the future will probably be one where it's cheaper to have buy 6 to 12 brand-new zero-emission EVs, than it will be to afford an urban car-free 2-bedroom condo in any top-20 city. Given Urbanists political goals (and the fact that Urbanists are winning their goals), I suspect public car commuting and VMT to grow every single year, for 80% of the low and/or middle class population.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#463

Post by ycombonator »

bogle wrote: post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

So I have to take my 4 year old who developed a high fever to the emergency room on an electric bike/ scooter ?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#464

Post by jandrese »

ezzzzz wrote: post #456
Animats wrote: post #443

Self-driving got taken over by the "fake it til you make it" crowd. Uber, Cruise (go find Cruise's original demo video and marketing claims), Tesla, etc. Only Google/Waymo approached it as a hard problem, and only Waymo has something that's deployed, even in a limited way, without a "safety driver". Somebody will probably make it work, but it may come from some boring old company like Ford or Continental or Fujitsu.…

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if these 'Auto-Pilot' cars are actually being controlled remotely from some off-shore ops center.

In fact at least one company is looking into this, having the car self-navigate as much as possible, but when confronted with a difficult situation like construction or debris in the road it would call back to a remote operator who would take over until you are past the difficult situation. They also saved the operators response so when the next car hits the same obstacle and calls back the next operator can just repeat the same solution.

I thought it was a good idea, but somewhat more expensive since you have to keep a big call center running and it depends on having reliable and fast internet connectivity at all times. The alternative is what everybody else is doing where you have to have a full set of controls and a licensed driver behind the wheel ready to take over when the AI runs into a situation it can't handle.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#465

Post by bllguo »

jandrese wrote: post #464
ezzzzz wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if these 'Auto-Pilot' cars are actually being controlled remotely from some off-shore ops center.

In fact at least one company is looking into this, having the car self-navigate as much as possible, but when confronted with a difficult situation like construction or debris in the road it would call back to a remote operator who would take over until you are past the difficult situation. They also saved the operators response so when the next car hits the same obstacle and calls back the next operator can just rep…

interesting, but what a terrifying job that would be. dealing with life-or-death scenarios all day long. and the liability questions would become even more complex

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#466

Post by jandrese »

cloudwalking wrote: post #256
bpyne wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Live in the city and want to go hiking 20 miles away?" Yes, you want to use a car in this case. But, in the life I imagine, I would rent a car. I dislike driving intensely, but I can see use-cases in which cars are necessary. However, Americans have been largely forced into car ownership, despite the expense and hassle of owning one. A reduction in car ownership coupled with more pedestrian-friendly community design…

If you have to rent a car to go hiking, you aren't going to hike very often.

Depends how painful you make it to rent a car. If you're talking about a traditional auto rental where there is a half hour of filling out paperwork and doing checks with obtuse and baffling fees and gas options and everything then yes, that's an impediment.

A future where you have an Uber-like app where you summon an autonomous car that takes you to your destination for a nominal fee then who needs to own a car?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#467

Post by stevenwoo »

ivanhoe wrote: post #311
jdavis703 wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Old people can't be expected to walk far or drive scooters and bikes everyday. Yet that's what one sees in Copenhagen.

And Copenhagen is well known for its high hills, right? Not everyone lives in Holland and Copenhagen and other flat places. Also, while it's definitely great that Scandinavians live their healthy and slightly ascetic lifestyle, it's not everyones cup of tea outside of those specific nations/cultures. Maybe it should be, by all means if this is what young people want they should do it one day when they grow old. But i…

Barcelona seemed very walkable to me after a month I saw people of all ages on foot and bikes even during the summer heat wave and it is not flat at all.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#468

Post by 300bps »

CompanionCuuube wrote: post #439
300bps wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't need to drive why would you buy a driverless car? I don’t anticipate many people will ever buy a driverless car. The whole concept of buying a car is kind of ridiculous. You pay for it then you continue paying for registration, insurance, maintenance, park, etc all while it sits idle 90% of the time. Driverless cars allow you to be picked up at your front door and dropped off exactly at the spot wherever…

> all while it sits idle 90% of the time. Thought experiment: Most of your clothes sit idle 90% of the time.

Most of your clothes sit idle 90% of the time.

I have a cup full of pennies in my closet that sit idle all the time too and I don't care... cause they're pennies.

Similarly, the average car cost over $35,000 in 2018. That's a sizable expense for most people. Clothes in comparison, not so much.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#469

Post by whenanother »

ezzzzz wrote: post #456
Animats wrote: post #443

Self-driving got taken over by the "fake it til you make it" crowd. Uber, Cruise (go find Cruise's original demo video and marketing claims), Tesla, etc. Only Google/Waymo approached it as a hard problem, and only Waymo has something that's deployed, even in a limited way, without a "safety driver". Somebody will probably make it work, but it may come from some boring old company like Ford or Continental or Fujitsu.…

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if these 'Auto-Pilot' cars are actually being controlled remotely from some off-shore ops center.

I will take what is automation really is for 1000.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#470

Post by bluGill »

maxsilver wrote: post #462
bogle wrote: post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

> Consider cities... like London and New York. (snip) Note that I'm only asking about city travel Generally speaking, I don't see any future where people no longer drive, because the cost of not-driving is so exorbitantly expensive that very few people will ever be able to afford it. EVs are cheap, and get cheaper every day. Dense urban "car-free" housing is already unaffordable for almost everyone, and only gets mor…

High density being expensive and getting those rents shows there is demand: we should be building more of it to fill demand, and in turn bring prices down.

In less dense areas the car shines above anything else. However in those dense areas where people have shown they want to live cars are too big and we need something else.

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