Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.
Do you have data that supports what you think?
Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
41–50 of 556 posts
Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with Musk and George Hotz that lidar is never going to get there. That's because in Michigan the terrain that lidar has mastered changes drastically every time it snows. For those of us in snowy climates limiting us to self-driving to seven months a year isn't going to cut it.
Nobody gives a fuck about Michigan
GM. Ford. Chrysler.
Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#43The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…
>While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same Ideally we should not be accepting either. It is outrageous how many people we allow to be killed regularly for slightly more comfortable transport.
> slightly more comfortable transport.
Slightly more comfortable than what? Horses? Bicycles? Walking?
There were 158,493 registered deaths in Australia in 2018, [1] of which 1137 were due to motor vehicle accidents [1].
Motor vehicle related deaths don't even rate in the top 20 causes of death. [also 1]
The rate of motor vehicle related deaths in Australia peaked in 1970 at 30.4 per 100,000 population per year, and has been on a steady decline since and now sits at 4.6 per 100,000 per year.[2]
This seems reasonable to me.
1. https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/0/47E19CA15036B04BC...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_i...
Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#44Maybe we should focus on finding a way to ... clone our brain inside of mechanical box. I know plenty of ethical considerations there, but a human with all the life skills of a human would be a perfect AI and not need the normal learning that focus ML brings w/ it. Imagine if they just clone a driving instructor's brain, and placed copies of that inside the cars...
Even if we did this, we still don't know how to interface with the brain. Brain Computer Interface (BCI) technology is still very bad. We can barely do anything.
I recall that using EEG, you can extract at most 4 degrees of freedom/conscious-control, beyond that we can't do anything. We also kinda suck at monitering any "human intent" using EEG because there's no clear biological signal for that either.
Most of the successes seem to be done with some direct-to-brain interface, but those aren't magical either, and no one wants to do that.
I unfortunately missed a bright grad student's talk on the state of BCI. I didn't get to hear what he had to say, but the only slide in his talk was the image of a garbage dumpster on fire.
Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.
Do you have data that supports what you think?
That's not how this works. If the cars are safer, there should be independent data that shows this. As it is, we get one-sentence "safety reports" from the manufacturer with a single data point. They're not safer by default because the manufacturer says so.
Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#46The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…
>While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same Ideally we should not be accepting either. It is outrageous how many people we allow to be killed regularly for slightly more comfortable transport.
Cars are way more comfortable and more convenient than public transit. Working Parisians who take transit spend 113 minutes a day commuting: https://www.thelocal.fr/20160418/parisians-spend-23-days-a-y...
DC, where most people drive, averages about 70 minutes.
Commuters in Dallas, where everyone drives, spend just 54 minutes a day commuting: https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hou...
Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#47The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…
I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.
>I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver.
No one in the public has enough data to say one way or another whether that is true and by presenting it as fact you are falling into the same trap that OP is warning about.
Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
>While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same Ideally we should not be accepting either. It is outrageous how many people we allow to be killed regularly for slightly more comfortable transport.
I think there's an implicit bargain made when you get in a car that a person is driving: you're both risking your lives on this journey. A self-driving car is risking possibly millions of dollars and bad publicity, but not a life. It's hard to trust a computer like that.
Which is why the recennt spike in pedestrian and bicycle deaths is even more alarming.
Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#49Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.
Do you have data that supports what you think?
The quarterly safety numbers that Tesla releases are difficult to draw conclusions from, because they do not represent a controlled experiment over the same road conditions. However here are the numbers for millions of miles per crash (higher is better).
With AutoPilot, Without AutoPilot but With Active Safety Measures, Without AutoPilot or Active Safety Measures, and NHTSA Average Vehicle
19Q3 - 4.34 2.70 1.82 0.50
19Q2 - 3.27 2.19 1.41 0.50
19Q1 - 2.87 1.76 1.26 0.44
18Q4 - 2.91 1.58 1.25 0.44
18Q3 - 3.34 1.92 2.02 0.49