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Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

economist.com

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Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#31

Post by robotresearcher »

rhino369 wrote: post #15
crocal wrote: post #8

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…

I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.

Do you have data that supports what you think?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#32

Post by tadeegan »

rmason wrote: post #14
xbmcuser wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that ditching Lidar by Musk is the wrong move. From what I have read most if not all the self driving accidents that Tesla have been involved in could have been avoided if a Lidar type sensor was involoved. With tech available trying to use the same limits as human vision is stupid.

I agree with Musk and George Hotz that lidar is never going to get there. That's because in Michigan the terrain that lidar has mastered changes drastically every time it snows. For those of us in snowy climates limiting us to self-driving to seven months a year isn't going to cut it.

Nobody gives a fuck about Michigan

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#33

Post by IIAOPSW »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #23
IIAOPSW wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine being given immortality but you have to work a day job as a car and you don't get time off ever.

I know..but you could have time off... I mean you're not driving 24/7...maybe when not needed for transport you live in VR space.

You could also be turned off and reset. Why waste the power? Who will know? Is it even a crime to kill a simulated person?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#34

Post by goatinaboat »

crocal wrote: post #8

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…

The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or even rocket science.

One bad driver kills themselves and maybe a handful of others. One bad software update kills... everyone. So, the demand that the software be near-perfect is not at all unreasonable. It’s strange not to acknowledge this fundamental difference.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#35

Post by GhostVII »

xbmcuser wrote: post #5
deepnotderp wrote: post #4

The most pertinent point here being that although collecting lots of self driving car data is easy, the tail and unexpected events that you care about are surprisingly rare. And many of these events can also be entirely new (never seen before). Current AI SOTA techniques simply require too much data and cannot reason well enough to solve this. Leaving Musk aside, amongst those who are serious about self driving cars,…

I agree that ditching Lidar by Musk is the wrong move. From what I have read most if not all the self driving accidents that Tesla have been involved in could have been avoided if a Lidar type sensor was involoved. With tech available trying to use the same limits as human vision is stupid.

I think Musk has no choice but to ditch Lidar. He has promised to provide full self driving on cars already on the road, and retrofitting all of those cars with Lidar is incredibly expensive.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#36

Post by rayiner »

robotresearcher wrote: post #31
rhino369 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.

Do you have data that supports what you think?

https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-autopilot-why-crash-radar/

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#37

Post by handpanda »

baroffoos wrote: post #10
crocal wrote: post #8

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…

>While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same Ideally we should not be accepting either. It is outrageous how many people we allow to be killed regularly for slightly more comfortable transport.

I think there's an implicit bargain made when you get in a car that a person is driving: you're both risking your lives on this journey. A self-driving car is risking possibly millions of dollars and bad publicity, but not a life. It's hard to trust a computer like that.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#38

Post by theieindjri »

crocal wrote: post #8

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…

I don't understand why so many otherwise smart people fell for FSD hype. I'm not talking about the many con artists - I'm talking about the tech-savvy people who genuinely bought into FSD hype.

How is it not obvious that FSD most likely requires artificial general intelligence and is, thus, probably somewhere between "many decades away" and "humans will never achieve it"?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#39

Post by emiliobumachar »

unityByFreedom wrote: post #27
Reason077 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

”Clearly, including drunk driving accidents in the mix is not a helpful metric for safety-conscious drivers.” Sure it is. Even if you never drive drunk, there are still other drunk drivers on the road who are a danger to you. But a self-driving AI, even an imperfect one, never drives drunk.

You're imagining a scenario where everyone has a self-driving car and completely ignoring cost and social factors. Who among us would admit, " yes, I am a bad driver, I need this more expensive thing to take control in the event of an accident "? Very few is my guess. In 2019, people use these for convenience, not because they think the system is a better driver. I bet that's true even for Waymo's taxis. As for getti…

I don't think total coverage is necessary. If 10% of the cars are self-driving, to a first approximation there will be 10% less drunk drivers.

Cost is definitely an issue, but reducing accidents and increasing convenience have a cash value which could pay for it if the research pans out.

What social factors do you have in mind?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#40

Post by handpanda »

GhostVII wrote: post #35
xbmcuser wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that ditching Lidar by Musk is the wrong move. From what I have read most if not all the self driving accidents that Tesla have been involved in could have been avoided if a Lidar type sensor was involoved. With tech available trying to use the same limits as human vision is stupid.

I think Musk has no choice but to ditch Lidar. He has promised to provide full self driving on cars already on the road, and retrofitting all of those cars with Lidar is incredibly expensive.

Plus LIDARs aren't aesthetically pleasing in their current incarnations.
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