Live data from Hacker News

Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

nytimes.com

161–170 of 183 posts

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#161
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People love to get outraged when economists talk about human tragedy in monetary terms because they assume the sub text of discussing things in terms of money is that that's what they think is really important about the situation. This entirely misses the point. The economists want something they can measure. They are using dollar losses as a proxy for the gravity of the situation and as a proxy for relative value th…

> The economists want something they can measure. They are using dollar losses as a proxy for the gravity of the situation and as a proxy for relative value that people place on things. This is a poor proxy, as it over-values areas with high, uneven distributions of capital accumulation. If the Netherlands were to succumb to the impending boiling sea-waters, that would necessarily have a higher "economist cost" than…

> by saying that, yes, in fact a Dutchman is worth 11x a Nigerian.

I'm pretty sure economists actually genuinely believe this statement.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#162
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks! My order of magnitude range is extreme, but I was thinking of "total cost to humanity" estimate not ppms. I do think trying to put a price tag on climate change's "total cost to humanity" is truly a hopeless task, and results are bound to be meaningless, due to sheer complexity combine with subjectivity. How can we meaningfully price biodiversity, the anguish of future generations, permanently escalating geop…

Glad you responded! Lots of thoughts on this. The estimates are sure to be not exactly right. But I don't let that hold me up! I see sooooo many people get stuck because they can't figure out "Well is it 700 billion tons of carbon in the air or 900? Will the the warming 4 degrees C or 5?". "I can't do anything if I don't know exactly what it is". To me it's all just an excuse to do nothing. And I understand it, it's…

I think we agree, all Im saying in addition is, "total cost to humanity" is extremely hard to model, far harder than a physical climate model, so hard its near meaningless.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#163
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People love to get outraged when economists talk about human tragedy in monetary terms because they assume the sub text of discussing things in terms of money is that that's what they think is really important about the situation. This entirely misses the point. The economists want something they can measure. They are using dollar losses as a proxy for the gravity of the situation and as a proxy for relative value th…

> The economists want something they can measure. They are using dollar losses as a proxy for the gravity of the situation and as a proxy for relative value that people place on things. This is a poor proxy, as it over-values areas with high, uneven distributions of capital accumulation. If the Netherlands were to succumb to the impending boiling sea-waters, that would necessarily have a higher "economist cost" than…

So you what do you want do? Run around and poll everyone on their feelings and make decisions based on anecdote points?

You fail to present a better alternative.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#164

(disclaimer: I work in a Climate&Energy research group) I just want to remind everyone that there are solutions to climate change. We know how to produce clean energy and sequester CO2. The current free market does not make those solutions profitable for investors, though, and we will have to change that. Solving climate change can be as simple as getting a carbon price adopted. It needs to ramp up over time, allow a…

> Solving climate change can be as simple as getting a carbon price adopted. Such a solution cannot work, as long as we have a growth-based economy. The fact is that economists have long regarded natural resources as infinite, and their models are conceived accordingly. Infinite growth is by definition incompatible with a finite planet. Until we have come up with a new, finite economic model (which means also a profo…

"Such a solution cannot work, as long as we have a growth-based economy. The fact is that economists have long regarded natural resources as infinite"

This is a canard: the vast majority of 'growth' does not depend on natural resource extraction, and economists are quite aware that some resources are theoretically finite - but technology not only makes previously 'useless' materials 'useful' but increases the 'yield' makes better use of current material, and discovers new ways to extract material. For example, we were supposed to hit 'peak Oil' in the 1970's but extraction methods have improved such that vastly more Oil is available.

The 'tar sands' in Canada and Venezuela for example were 'useless' 40 years ago, but given some price point and prevalence of specific technologies, they represent massive pools of fossil fools, the largest on earth on par with Saudi.

The most disconcerting part of 'growth' is not resource extraction really it's population growth and the net per capita impact each individual has on the Earth. We can have growth in the quality of so many goods without externalities, but when 5B previously poor people on planet earth want to burn as much fossil fuel as is done in the modern world ... then we have trouble.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The economists want something they can measure. They are using dollar losses as a proxy for the gravity of the situation and as a proxy for relative value that people place on things. This is a poor proxy, as it over-values areas with high, uneven distributions of capital accumulation. If the Netherlands were to succumb to the impending boiling sea-waters, that would necessarily have a higher "economist cost" than…

> by saying that, yes, in fact a Dutchman is worth 11x a Nigerian. I'm pretty sure economists actually genuinely believe this statement.

These figures aren't used to compare tragedies across countries in a professional setting. It is always about how a government should allocate aid resources or distributions within their own economy.

Except for foreign aid in which being devalued works strongly in the favor of poorer nations. Ie if I have 10 million in aid money to spend and I can buy 10 housing units in Germany or 1000 housing units in Uganda because the currency goes further, that money is going to be routed to the poorer place.

So this is a total strawman. No one respectable (and I mean 0) is using these figures to compare human worth between economies.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#166
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The economists want something they can measure. They are using dollar losses as a proxy for the gravity of the situation and as a proxy for relative value that people place on things. This is a poor proxy, as it over-values areas with high, uneven distributions of capital accumulation. If the Netherlands were to succumb to the impending boiling sea-waters, that would necessarily have a higher "economist cost" than…

So you what do you want do? Run around and poll everyone on their feelings and make decisions based on anecdote points? You fail to present a better alternative.

> Run around and poll everyone on their feelings and make decisions based on anecdote points?

Democracy sounds pretty dope when you put it that way.

> You fail to present a better alternative

I just want people to treat human life with dignity. Chile 1973--we've seen what happens with your line of rationalization and commoditizing human lives.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m familiar with the science and I’m afraid to say there are no easy solutions to climate change. Every meaningful systemic solution requires a dramatic curtailment of our current energy use, and would have tremendous negative socioeconomic impact. In short, all meaningful solutions rely on everyone’s life getting a bit worse, and in many cases, esp. in the western world, a lot worse. Furthermore, any systemic solut…

I've read assessments from climate scientists that don't paint nearly as dark a situation in terms of what we CAN do. The hard part is simply making it a political reality. But even ignoring that, it's important to define "worse". Worse than a year round fire season constantly threatening to burn down your home? Worse than 50 year floods every single year? As the impacts of climate change become more real to individu…

Will just share some brief points. As we pump more energy into the atmosphere, the climate will continue to change until a new equilibrium is reached. There will be winners and losers when that happens, recall that the Sahara was once a tropical jungle, or that CO2 ppm was higher during the jurassic era. Florida may be unhabitable but Wyoming may become a paradise. Any city, county, state, country that looks to be a winner does not benefit from contributing to climate change efforts and therefore will find little incentive in doing so.

Shifting focus to alternatives is noble, but the technology is years from maturation. It took us a long time to master the steam that drives electricity generation whether the plant is coal, oil, natural gas or nuclear (hydroelectric being the lone exception). These sources are mature enough to be reliable. We often take for granted the level of engineering effort involved in building and deploying a stable power grid. Switching to alternatives before they are mature will introduce instabilities across the grid, rolling brownouts/blackouts will be prevalent. Subways will shutdown in major cities at arbitrary times etc. It will dramatically reduce the quality of life. This is what happens in third world countries with inadequate and unstable grids. If you wonder why cellphones outsell desktops and laptops in Africa, this is partly why.

The energy density per unit volume that gasoline offers is unmatched by all other sources except nuclear. It’s stable and portable, and yes it definitely damages the environment when produced or consumed, but then every fuel source does. There’s certainly some great work on better batteries, but it’s years, potentially decades, away from production grade. It’s also unclear whether there won’t be other externalities from mining and transmuting rare earth metals at the scale required to replace gasoline. We may be trading one problem for another. The world is also slowly running out of potable water.

A big problem like climate change requires big solutions. A complete rethink of transportation, energy infrastructure, food production, housing, etc. at a national scale. And any sustainable solution will have to address population limits. But nobody has the courage to talk in those terms. Thing is, even if one country manages to wean itself off of fossil fuels, other, poorer countries will be happy to absorb the excess supply in the form of lower prices. How do we stop that? Put a global price on carbon? Look above for why certain countries won’t agree to that. That requires a one world govt., and we’re probably not getting one of those until we face a mass extinction event (meteor, aliens).

Climate change is the ultimate tragedy of the commons. And humanity has a terrible track record as far as the commons are concerned.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#168

(disclaimer: I work in a Climate&Energy research group) I just want to remind everyone that there are solutions to climate change. We know how to produce clean energy and sequester CO2. The current free market does not make those solutions profitable for investors, though, and we will have to change that. Solving climate change can be as simple as getting a carbon price adopted. It needs to ramp up over time, allow a…

> Solving climate change can be as simple as getting a carbon price adopted. Such a solution cannot work, as long as we have a growth-based economy. The fact is that economists have long regarded natural resources as infinite, and their models are conceived accordingly. Infinite growth is by definition incompatible with a finite planet. Until we have come up with a new, finite economic model (which means also a profo…

We can adapt to a green and infinite model - solar energy is effectively infinite - assuming we adapt before catastrophe

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#169
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a human phenomenon, that has religious and secular expressions. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology... ...some apocalyptic believers find the idea that the end is nigh to be validating. Individuals with a history of traumatic experiences, for example, may be fatalistic. For these people, finding a group of like-minded fatalists is reassuring. There may also be comfort in being able to a…

Kinda sounds like you're calling AGW a doomsday cult.

No, but there are doomsday cultish acolytes of AGW.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#170
post #31

A carbon tax is just massive scam built around this fear of global warning.

Is the great Pacific garbage patch a scam? Is the great Atlantic garbage patch a scam? Are industrial chemicals in aquifers a scam? Is methylmercury accumulation in seafaring life a scam? Is world heating, up to locations being human uninhabitable, a scam? Are the glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic breaking off and melting, a scam? How much evidence do you need in convincing? Or is it just political posturing, and…

This comment breaks the site guidelines in several ways. Would you please review them and stick to them when posting here? We've asked you this more than once before, and if you continue to break them we're going to have to ban you.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Note, in particular, that it's not ok to post in the flamewar style here, and it's especially not ok to post insinuations about astroturfing when you find a comment disagreeable.

Post reply on HN