Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#101

Post by maxerickson » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:45 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #93

chris_va wrote: post #23

(disclaimer: I work in a Climate&Energy research group) I just want to remind everyone that there are solutions to climate change. We know how to produce clean energy and sequester CO2. The current free market does not make those solutions profitable for investors, though, and we will have to change that. Solving climate change can be as simple as getting a carbon price adopted. It needs to ramp up over time, allow a…

Before any tax is issued, I'd like to know the exact percentage breakdown between man-made climate change and natural climate cycles? Can anyone break the percentage down for me, between man-made CO2 and natural CO2 being outgassed by oceans, and then breakdown the difference between CO2 induced warming and variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Meridional…

The oceans are absorbing CO₂.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification

Also, no one knows the exact percentage breakdown. No one. We can't even say with any sort of certainty what the current climate is, because it's something that is only really available retrospectively.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#102

Post by tito » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:46 PM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #48

tito wrote: post #13

I'm fascinated by this graph of the growth of solar as compared to International Agency Predictions. Year after year, the IEA massively underestimated the growth of solar. Last year, at a workshop with the World Bank I heard an expert in energy investments say "even just 5 years ago none of us ever thought the price of solar could go this low this fast". GRAPH: https://steinbuch.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/iea-vs-rea…

That melt isn't as unprecedented as the Forbes blagger makes it out to be. Follow the chain and you find out that it is reasonably comparable to one that happened in…2012: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/01/greenland-... If it ends up part of even a 2 year pattern, that's already concerning, I'm not dismissing the issue, I'm just slagging Forbes links.

Following up here:

The reference to 2070 seems to relate to the rate of melting (ablation rate), which was greater than the 2012 melt.

The rate of the recent melt was modeled as the average daily melting rate in 2070 in SSP585: https://twitter.com/xavierfettweis/status/115648786895048294...

Oh so this looks interesting. Here's what SSP585 refers to, it's a hardcore model for 2000 ppm by 2200: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Relation-of-C4MIP-simula...

I haven't found the source for linking that to the ablation rate besides the above xavierfettweis tweet tho. But he has a followup tweet in that thread saying it was related to the melting rate overall.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#103

Post by imtringued » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:49 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #93

chris_va wrote: post #23

(disclaimer: I work in a Climate&Energy research group) I just want to remind everyone that there are solutions to climate change. We know how to produce clean energy and sequester CO2. The current free market does not make those solutions profitable for investors, though, and we will have to change that. Solving climate change can be as simple as getting a carbon price adopted. It needs to ramp up over time, allow a…

Before any tax is issued, I'd like to know the exact percentage breakdown between man-made climate change and natural climate cycles? Can anyone break the percentage down for me, between man-made CO2 and natural CO2 being outgassed by oceans, and then breakdown the difference between CO2 induced warming and variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Meridional…

Here is a video that adresses some of your points. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBF6F4Bi6Sg

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#104

Post by glitchc » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:57 PM UTC

chris_va wrote: post #23

(disclaimer: I work in a Climate&Energy research group) I just want to remind everyone that there are solutions to climate change. We know how to produce clean energy and sequester CO2. The current free market does not make those solutions profitable for investors, though, and we will have to change that. Solving climate change can be as simple as getting a carbon price adopted. It needs to ramp up over time, allow a…

I’m familiar with the science and I’m afraid to say there are no easy solutions to climate change. Every meaningful systemic solution requires a dramatic curtailment of our current energy use, and would have tremendous negative socioeconomic impact. In short, all meaningful solutions rely on everyone’s life getting a bit worse, and in many cases, esp. in the western world, a lot worse.

Furthermore, any systemic solution that does not enforce global compliance and population control (I went there) is guaranteed to fail.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#105

Post by rapind » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:58 PM UTC

new2628 wrote: post #85

standardUser wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One simple thing we can all do is never vote for a candidate if they are not for aggressive and immediate measures to combat global warming. If the roughly 60-75% of Americans who believe human activity is causing climate change were to stop voting for individuals who don't believe this, we'd have meaningful change coming from the federal government within 2 years.

What people _believe_ is largely irrelevant in almost all situations, whether you mean the voters or the elected officials. Only actions matter. This is not just semantics, some who believe in global warming fly every month or week, some who don't believe in global warming have not flown their entire life (to pick just one example). The latter do more to mitigate it than the former.

This is the issue. What people believe can be influenced, especially as it becomes increasingly inconvenient. Consider how many people are aware of social network micro manipulation / nudging but couldn't be bothered to just stop using Facebook. It's an easy action, easier than voting even, but it's not worth the inconvenience for the vast majority (yet).

Climate change has some really terrible consequences, but until it gets real for people they'll only suffer so much inconvenience. My own pet peeve is when recycling bins get thrown in with the garbage... Shitty solutions will regress us, but shitty solutions are necessary for iteration, so /shrug.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#106

Post by joyjoyjoy » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:58 PM UTC

We always had climate change. Not having climate change is the exception. Is it man made? Is it caused by CO2? Ist it getting warmer? Is this a good or a bad thing? Can we and should we do something about it? This are many questions and climate change is one of the most complex phenomenons. I have a STEM PhD and would not be able to make a quick judgement.

"Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think"

Given that all the statements are true, something that is seldom discussed, who is "We"? People with real estate in NYC, Amsterdam and Miami? Maybe. People in super hot climates? Probably.

How about people in Greenland? Russia? Canada?

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#107

Post by dexen » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:58 PM UTC

danso wrote: post #26

sunseb wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEwH4nTUcAE-Q7e.jpg

Strange. You seem to have posted a doctored image. The fact that your "1977" image uses modern typography should have been an obvious giveaway to you before you posted it. https://apnews.com/afs:Content:5755221200 > AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. The Time cover labeled in social posts as coming from 1977 is actually a cover from 2007, with the image altered to change the title from “The Global Warming Survival Guide” to “Ho…

Strange. You seem to have posted a link to a source discredited on the subject of climate. The fact that we are seeing the same headlines for many years now should have been an obvious giveaway to you before you posted it.

https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0

>June 30, 1989

> A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#108

Post by badfrog » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:59 PM UTC

new2628 wrote: post #85

standardUser wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One simple thing we can all do is never vote for a candidate if they are not for aggressive and immediate measures to combat global warming. If the roughly 60-75% of Americans who believe human activity is causing climate change were to stop voting for individuals who don't believe this, we'd have meaningful change coming from the federal government within 2 years.

What people _believe_ is largely irrelevant in almost all situations, whether you mean the voters or the elected officials. Only actions matter. This is not just semantics, some who believe in global warming fly every month or week, some who don't believe in global warming have not flown their entire life (to pick just one example). The latter do more to mitigate it than the former.

> The latter do more to mitigate it than the former.

Electing leaders who ignore the problem does way more harm than the lifestyles of average people.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#109

Post by jeremyjh » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 5:59 PM UTC

iikoolpp wrote: post #25

Opened the article expecting it to be a more abstract cost. Turns out it's about economics. Christ alive. "Yeah, billions are gonna die, but what really matters is my house prices are gonna go down."

Do you think people can live without production of food, housing, medicine, clothing and other goods? Do you think those things get delivered without transportation and communication infrastructure? Economic cost is not abstract at all - its a reduction of things people need to live. It measures other things as well but there is virtually no harm from climate change that can’t be measured in economic terms. That’s practically a tautology.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#110

Post by 11235813213455 » Sat, Oct 26, 2019, 6:00 PM UTC

chris_va wrote: post #23

(disclaimer: I work in a Climate&Energy research group) I just want to remind everyone that there are solutions to climate change. We know how to produce clean energy and sequester CO2. The current free market does not make those solutions profitable for investors, though, and we will have to change that. Solving climate change can be as simple as getting a carbon price adopted. It needs to ramp up over time, allow a…

I'm much more in favor of sequestering CO2 naturally (planting trees everywhere possible, it also has huge benefits in well-being, air quality, ..), and forcing people to reduce their excessive consumerism