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Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

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Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course there are, the you just called it something else: hydro.

Here's an example: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

The problem with hydro is that it doesn't scale. You can build it where there is a suitable location, but most of the suitable locations already have it.

Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you shop around it's abundantly clear that the price of a new roof varies wildly. Some of it is materials. The guy offering 50 year warranty GAF super-premium install who spots loads of potential problems up front and factors them into the cost is going to run much higher. The guy who is just going to hire some rando non-english speaking guys from the 7-11 and toss on the cheapest possible materials without concer…

> Who is going to hire some rando non-english speaking guys from the 7-11 You know you didn't have to put non-english speaking in there, right? Totally unnecessary and shows potential racial bias. (I'm not perfect either, and it bugs me when I say stuff like that too.)

He obviously wanted to say Latin American but didn't have the courage. There aren't many teams of Finnish roofers running around America. The 7-11 bit is odd; construction laborers aren't usually known to congregate around convenience stores when looking for work. Usually it's a hardware store. I suppose he wanted to distance himself from that cliche by making himself seem unfamiliar with the finer details.

Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's exactly what regulation is and does. It picks winners, picks harmful phenomenon, and acts accordingly, with a short-to-medium timeframe based on what would get the most votes. I, too, believe that taxing actual atmospheric carbon impact would be great, but how would you measure such a thing fairly?

>That's exactly what regulation is and does. It picks winners, picks harmful phenomenon, and acts accordingly, with a short-to-medium timeframe based on what would get the most votes. The subsidies are terrible. They are way too narrow and don’t address the root cause of the issue. Climate change is not happening because we don’t have enough renewables, climate change is happening because our GHG emissions are too hi…

I pretty much agree on all points. This is a tragedy of the commons on a global scale. I’m not sure what the answer is.

Subsidies are woefully inaccurate, but can be applied locally on most political climates. Carbon emission taxes would be better, but global competition makes that difficult.

Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#244

> And we’re actually going to have […] ‘installathons,’ ” Musk said, which will pit two teams against each other to see who can roof one of two similar-sized/designed roofs faster. Musk reiterated later that there’s “quite a bit of R&D just in the installation process itself.” Not a short seller, but that sounds a lot like: “We don’t yet know how to do this well, but in the meantime we are going to optimize for speed…

"Great artists ship" - Steve Jobs (apocryphal?)

It's better to ship and start iterating than to sit around and refine without sufficient real world feedback.

Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just put in a 12kw system. It was $32k before federal rebate, and it was the cheapest bid by 5 different contractors. Not sure where your getting $15k

Wow, that seems quite high. Panels are around $0.50/Wh. Add in another $2000 in materials and labor cost $24k!

FWIW. The panels are $0.86/wh each with a micro-inverter that runs ~$160 per panel and 32 panels. So, ~$5000 for inverters, ~$11k for panels, which brings you to ~$16k and your not even tied into the power of the house, or adding the mandatory shutoff, or the new meters, or the Emphase system that tracks by the minute power consumption and usage of each panel, etc etc. So lets call the rest $4k

Total of parts ~$20k. $12k for construction in the Seattle area seems fair for a complex electrical install that includes a 10 year install and 25 year system warranty.

I think like many things, the last mile of work is way more expensive then people realize. Solar is more than the panels themselves

Note: I could have used cheaper panels, but they take up more roof. I could have also saved money by skipping the per-panel micro-inverters, but then the system is more brittle and less efficient

Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This was true 20 years ago and will be laughable 20 years from now. Will the sun start shining at night in 20 years? >Fossil fuel generators do NOT ramp up and down quickly. Natural gas ramps as quickly as it can. But let's assume that's true, that's not a point against me, it's a point against solar because then it means that solar is completely unworkable. >Every one of these supposed drawbacks of solar also apply…

> Natural gas ramps as quickly as it can. But let's assume that's true, that's not a point against me, it's a point against solar because then it means that solar is completely unworkable. You're thinking about this wrong. If you want 100% generation from solar then you need a ton of storage, period. But who says it has to be 100% solar or 0? Take a look at the daily electricity demand curve. Lower at night, higher d…

>And in that case your natural gas plants only have to run for a couple of hours between sunset and bedtime instead of all day long.

Right. So we agree, solar cannot remove carbon emissions. And I thought the entire point is to remove fossil fuels entirely from energy generation, not just reduce it.

>you use nuclear at night

It doesn't work like that. Nuclear can take days to ramp up and ramp down. Solar does not play well with nuclear.

That's one problem.

A more major issue is...if you're using nuclear, why the heck do you even need solar? This is the energy mix of my home province[1] - we're essentially fossil fuel-free because our energy mix is nuclear and hydro. There is no point in increasing investment in solar and wind. But we're doing it, not because it's good for reducing carbon emission, but because it's a fad.

[1] http://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html

Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#247
post #231

> And we’re actually going to have […] ‘installathons,’ ” Musk said, which will pit two teams against each other to see who can roof one of two similar-sized/designed roofs faster. Musk reiterated later that there’s “quite a bit of R&D just in the installation process itself.” Not a short seller, but that sounds a lot like: “We don’t yet know how to do this well, but in the meantime we are going to optimize for speed…

He prioritizes speed apparently at the cost of anything else. I wonder why he feels such urgency? I mean yeah he finally got a profit out of Tesla last quarter. But there’s really no tolerance for hiccups in a roof install.

Isn't speed a very important factor when addressing climate change?

I thought replacing ICE engines and developing more in renewable energy would be accepted.

Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#248
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This was true 20 years ago and will be laughable 20 years from now. Will the sun start shining at night in 20 years? >Fossil fuel generators do NOT ramp up and down quickly. Natural gas ramps as quickly as it can. But let's assume that's true, that's not a point against me, it's a point against solar because then it means that solar is completely unworkable. >Every one of these supposed drawbacks of solar also apply…

Storage costs are dropping rapidly. New batteries are nearly there for cost competitiveness. As the first generation of BEV batteries become 'spent', they will be reused in grid-scale applications. Space and weight are not a concern, and most will have ~70% of their original capacity. That accelerates quickly once Gen 2 batteries have hit end of life.

>Storage costs are dropping rapidly

Read around, nobody actually believes Li-ion batteries can bridge the intermittency gaps of solar and wind. The production capacity may never be there and cost aren't there today and may never get there (cost for US to store 10-15% of excess summer energy to use in winter with Li-ion batteries would run tens of trillions of dollars). Li-ion batteries leak energy if you want to use them to store excess power for weeks (as you would have to).

That's the problem. There isn't a battery technology now, or forthcoming.

Re: Tesla’s new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This was true 20 years ago and will be laughable 20 years from now. Will the sun start shining at night in 20 years? >Fossil fuel generators do NOT ramp up and down quickly. Natural gas ramps as quickly as it can. But let's assume that's true, that's not a point against me, it's a point against solar because then it means that solar is completely unworkable. >Every one of these supposed drawbacks of solar also apply…

> Will the sun start shining at night in 20 years? Do batteries stop working at night? > No. Because we know we can power an economy with fossil fuels, and do it in any weather, day or night. ...and irreparably destroy the planet by doing so > Here's what works: Nuclear, Hydro, Geothermal I agree! But I think we are perfectly capable of utilizing these AND solar, wind, and storage?

>Do batteries stop working at night?

There is no battery technology (now or forthcoming) that can store enough energy to power a moderately sized city for a few hours, much less days or weeks.

>..and irreparably destroy the planet by doing so

I wasn't making a case for natural gas. I was a case that solar needs to be paired with natural gas.

>But I think we are perfectly capable of utilizing these AND solar, wind, and storage?

Why? If you're using nuclear and hydro, why bother with solar and wind?

Here's a live view of the energy mix of my home province [1]. Almost all clean. Why bother with solar and wind?

[1] http://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html

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