Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way” • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#81

Post by beerandt » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:16 AM UTC

jonplackett wrote: post #42

I have very mixed feelings about autonomous cars. One side of me is so excited about the prospect and finds it all amazing and futuristic. I love reading about how Tesla and Waymo approach it differently. The other side of me is absolutely not ready to trust my life to a machine - even though I know I do that all the time in other ways in modern life. I think it will be people's emotional evaluation that will matter…

Maybe semantics, but the biggest problem isn't necessarily trusting the machine to do what's expected. The problem is the machine being able to predict what pedestrians and other drivers are going to do.

This isn't just a problem for driverless cars, it's become a real problem for people, too.

The rules of the road are there for a reason, people!

When you wave someone into traffic, or have your emergency flashers on while still moving in the rain, or wait too long at a busy 4-way stop, you're not being courteous or defensive or cautious, you're being unpredictable! (And most likely inefficient, as well.)

Worse, (and this is going to be driverless cars' Achilles heel, IMHO) is people pulling into or across traffic (or otherwise failing to yield) based only on the expectation that the vehicle with the right-of-way will brake and do whatever is required to avoid a wreck.

If they do it in front of a driverless car while trying to cross a busy highway, then people making this assumption are going to get killed.

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#82

Post by Franciscouzo » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:18 AM UTC

semiotagonal wrote: post #8

dev_dull wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same with best uber drivers.

Any human is the product of eons of natural selection honing our perception and reflexes. The process was unpleasant.

Is unpleasant, natural selection hasn't magically stopped.

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#83

Post by revscat » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:18 AM UTC

persistent wrote: post #7

Waymo is so far ahead in this game. Tesla has the biggest online cheerleading section and an "autopilot" that behaves as a low-budget adaptive cruise control with lane keeping that sometimes works, and a pretty big body count. Uber has a dead pedestrian and a major lawsuit. Cruise has a lot of people on staff but virtually nothing to show for it. Lyft exists. Waymo is in production revenue service.

> Waymo is in production revenue service.

I’m going to ignore the fact that you’re flatly incorrect about the rest of your posts regarding Tesla, since others have more ably corrected you than I could, and simply ask what the hell this even means.

A “production revenue service”? This sounds like meaningless babble. Waymo does not currently have anything available that you can buy, lease, subscribe to, or otherwise exchange money for. That is, in fact, the entire point of the article: “coming soon,” they say, with an additional clause on top of even that: “coming soon you may...”

So: what do you mean when you say “Waymo is in production revenue service”? Because that sounds like nonsense, to be honest.

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#84

Post by pjdemers » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:22 AM UTC

This afternoon I was driving up Alma in Palo Alto, near the Embarcadero underpass. There was a Waymo test van behind me, and another two cars in front of me. My thought was: "look at me, actually driving my car, like a sucker".

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#85

Post by byw » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:24 AM UTC

harry8 wrote: post #36

How to predict: 1) Say what but don't say when. 2) Say when but don't say what. Never, ever, ever bet tempted to say something specific will happen in a bounded time range. Flying cars are on the way! That disease you hate, a cure is coming! Next year will be a big year for other breakthroughs not mentioned here.

Elon Musk could use this advice.

But then again he probably uses deadlines as both carrots and whips.

Also seems makes good PR and gets people excited, even when exaggeration is accounted for.

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#86

Post by avip » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:31 AM UTC

p1necone wrote: post #60

harry8 wrote: post #36

How to predict: 1) Say what but don't say when. 2) Say when but don't say what. Never, ever, ever bet tempted to say something specific will happen in a bounded time range. Flying cars are on the way! That disease you hate, a cure is coming! Next year will be a big year for other breakthroughs not mentioned here.

This is the golden rule of software dev too - promise features or promise a release date, but never both.

Be conservative in what will be delivered, and liberal with when it'll be delivered.

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#87

Post by triceratops » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:32 AM UTC

majormajor wrote: post #68

triceratops wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, even if autonomous vehicles are on average exactly as safe as human drivers, they're still worth the effort. Here are some reasons: 1. They're cheaper. This sounds crude, until you realize that this makes things like buses and shared rides far more viable. Meaning millions of people have a better commute and collectively save many lifetimes worth of time. It can also mean less air pollution, due to less traffic…

> 1. They're cheaper. This sounds crude, until you realize that this makes things like buses and shared rides far more viable. Meaning millions of people have a better commute and collectively save many lifetimes worth of time. It can also mean less air pollution, due to less traffic congestion (this only applies if congestion pricing is done), which will also save lives. IMO autonomous vehicles are just going to fur…

That's why I mentioned congestion pricing. Or inverting the carpool/non-carpool lane ratios i.e. every lane is carpool-only except those designated as single-occupant-allowed, which makes driving by yourself expensive in terms of time.

Also, if you don't have to accommodate a human driver and controls, many safety features, bulky gasoline tank, and trunk space, automobile design could change radically. Self-driving taxicabs that look like small pods, or covered golf carts, could be used for individual travel, increasing space efficiency.

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#88

Post by new_realist » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:33 AM UTC

grecy wrote: post #34

mdorazio wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. It’s completely fair. Handling basic tasks on nice freeways is exactly what adaptive cruise control + lane keeping is for. Last I checked, autopilot couldn’t even stop for a stop sign unless you count “shadow mode” claims.

What other vehicle will change lanes by itself, and take on/off ramps through interchanges to take you where your navigation is routed, without you touching a single thing?

You have to keep touching the wheel or it will disengage. It sounds like you’ve never used it.

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#89

Post by jonplackett » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:33 AM UTC

beerandt wrote: post #81

jonplackett wrote: post #42

I have very mixed feelings about autonomous cars. One side of me is so excited about the prospect and finds it all amazing and futuristic. I love reading about how Tesla and Waymo approach it differently. The other side of me is absolutely not ready to trust my life to a machine - even though I know I do that all the time in other ways in modern life. I think it will be people's emotional evaluation that will matter…

Maybe semantics, but the biggest problem isn't necessarily trusting the machine to do what's expected. The problem is the machine being able to predict what pedestrians and other drivers are going to do. This isn't just a problem for driverless cars, it's become a real problem for people, too. The rules of the road are there for a reason, people! When you wave someone into traffic, or have your emergency flashers on…

Or it might go the other way and driverless cars will be push-overs on the road and brake for everyone all the time. There’s a lot of decisions to be made about how they should react to that kind of stuff.

Tesla’s last automation talk was interesting about that - they’re basically training the cars to act like a human driver would, looking for tiny signals that might warn of unexpected behaviour.

Re: Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

#90

Post by mikelyons » Thu, Oct 10, 2019, 1:39 AM UTC

Just a reminder that they're on their way. We have no idea when they'll get here, but they just wanted to say that they haven't forgotten that we were promised driverless cars. Just to remind us in case we forgot. Just wanted to make sure that we don't forget about waymo!