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U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#211

Post by wideasleep1 »

sumanthvepa wrote: post #199

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

"However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with the US particularly on semiconductor design and fabrication. Once that happens, the dominance of the US tech stack will start to falter and eventually erode away. "

Are you assuming the U.S. will sit stagnant during these 15-20 years? If China is 15-20 years behind currently, I doubt they will ever be at parity. Their best hope is a cultural revolution.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#212

Post by dragontamer »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #208
dragontamer wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We don't want jobs just to come to the US Yes we do. Full stop. > We want to help build the economies of the people scrambling across our border too. No. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_Air_Conditioner_move_t... Carrier moving their jobs to Mexico was a key element of Trump's platform, and a major reason why Trump got elected. Trump's base does NOT want the jobs to move to Mexico.

Note the timestamp, from all the way back during his campaign. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-01/trump-s-v... >The Republican presidential nominee rolled out the new talking point during a surprise trip Wednesday to Mexico, and explained it further on Thursday. In his telling, a prosperous Mexico and Latin America means less illegal immigration to the U.S. and more markets for American exports.

Yes, and Carrier was also moving out of the USA into Mexico during his campaign.

Actions speak louder than words. What did Trump do when Carrier was moving to Mexico? No American is willing to give up jobs to Mexico. Period.

You can try to whitewash Trump's actions as much as you want, but the Carrier issue is done and dealt with.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/424078-trump-supporter-ey...

> A supporter of President Trump is considering moving his company's production headquarters to Mexico in an effort to avoid Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports, according to The New York Times.

...

> “I just feel so betrayed. If we fail because the company is being harmed by the government, that just makes me sick," he added, saying that he expects that his profits in 2019 will be cut in half because of the tariffs.

This is the actual politics of the people. Now go ask all your Trump supporter friends if this move was a "success" for Trump's tariffs, an intended result.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#213

Post by killjoywashere »

x86_64Ubuntu wrote: post #206
peter303 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doubt it. China has yet to invent a new class of technology not copied/stolen from Europe or US. There are very good ar perfecting technologies developed elsewhere.

Not yet. But 20 years ago, we weren't having this conversation of China even being seen as a threat. Back in the day, China was simply and exotic communist land that the West exploited for cheap manufacturing. Now it's appearing to be going down the path of militarily deterring the US and competing in the tech field.

Ah... China has been a one-party police state with intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles for my entire adult life (I'm in my 40s). The only thing I don't understand is why anyone ever thought they weren't a threat.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#214

Post by derwiki »

wideasleep1 wrote: post #211
sumanthvepa wrote: post #199

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

"However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with the US particularly on semiconductor design and fabrication. Once that happens, the dominance of the US tech stack will start to falter and eventually erode away. " Are you assuming the U.S. will sit stagnant during these 15-20 years? If China is 15-20 years behind currently, I doubt they will ever be at parity. Their best…

Am I being whooshed? They had a Cultural Revolution..

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#215

Post by dwoozle »

the_gastropod wrote: post #75
scohesc wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should probably look yourself. From what I've been reading from financial postings, the Trump administration has done many good things for the stock market (for the people however is a different story) Usually whoever keeps the economy going and doesn't harm it in anyway gets re-elected for a second term.

Please.. just go look. Since his inauguration, the S&P500 is up 27.37%. At this point during Obama's first term, the S&P500 was up 65.19%. Apples and oranges, true. Let's look at the preceding 46 months before Trump's inauguration. Over that time, the market rose 26.69%. Anyone pretending the market under Trump is anything but "normal" is participating in partisan hackery. Don't do it.

You’re mental if you think that this is normal. We’ve been on a huge bull market since 2008. It’s not due to Obama or Trump but Obama got credit and got re-elected and the same will happen with Trump.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#216

Post by Consultant32452 »

dragontamer wrote: post #212
Consultant32452 wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note the timestamp, from all the way back during his campaign. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-01/trump-s-v... >The Republican presidential nominee rolled out the new talking point during a surprise trip Wednesday to Mexico, and explained it further on Thursday. In his telling, a prosperous Mexico and Latin America means less illegal immigration to the U.S. and more markets for American exports.

Yes, and Carrier was also moving out of the USA into Mexico during his campaign. Actions speak louder than words. What did Trump do when Carrier was moving to Mexico? No American is willing to give up jobs to Mexico. Period. You can try to whitewash Trump's actions as much as you want, but the Carrier issue is done and dealt with. https://thehill.com/policy/finance/424078-trump-supporter-ey... > A supporter of Presid…

Let's be clear about which groups of "jobs" we're talking about. Of course Trump and his base don't want the set of jobs already in America to leave America for any destination. Trump wanted to hold up Carrier as an example of keeping jobs in America and it was a failure.

There's another set of jobs which is the massive manufacturing base in China which provides goods for the US and elsewhere. We would like those jobs to come to the Western hemisphere, including and especially but not limited to the US.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#217

Post by seganddr »

saltking112 wrote: post #3

One thing that I really like about the Trump administration is that finally the WH has decided to act against the systemic threat posed by China. Can someone who is well versed in politics shed some light on if this is a trump specific phenonemon or had there been a sea change and the dems are now on board too ?

A brand new account and it's pro-trump during an impeachment crisis?

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#218

Post by devoply »

wideasleep1 wrote: post #211
sumanthvepa wrote: post #199

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

"However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with the US particularly on semiconductor design and fabrication. Once that happens, the dominance of the US tech stack will start to falter and eventually erode away. " Are you assuming the U.S. will sit stagnant during these 15-20 years? If China is 15-20 years behind currently, I doubt they will ever be at parity. Their best…

US was already shown to be behind in 5g, China is already caught up. Heck they even helped AMD catch up to Intel, and see what sort of major success that was ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMD%E2%80%93Chinese_joint_vent... ) . These moves are there to slow it down. But China can make other moves like moving tech knowledge from one company to others and play all sorts of games. Fact is knowledge despite what Americans want the world to believe, replicates and distributes powers in ways which are very difficult to stop. If China is not building it, they will move the knowledge to some ally which can build it. It's almost guaranteed at this point that we are already living in a bifurcated world where US will need to manufacture everything in other countries than China. And yet China's manufacturing edge is not going anywhere. They can clone any US product anyone else is producing and sell it to their trading bloc.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#219

Post by ethbro »

dragontamer wrote: post #201
quotz wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Youre thinking in the short-term. Of course there are going to be short term economic losses for the US when Trump announced the bans and the tariffs. But its only short term until the west figures out how to defeat the communists. In the long term, theres gain, not just in the economy of western countries, but most importantly gain in human rights, human dignity, and most of all, liberty! China's oligarchs would get…

> But its only short term until the west figures out how to defeat the communists. The Berlin wall fell nearly 30 years ago and the USSR has collapsed shortly thereafter. China's method of governance isn't anything like the communists. They're actually building advanced economies, as the builder of iPhones and lots of other equipment. China is authoritarian, and probably best described as "legalist" (medieval Chinese…

I feel like the "authoritarian capitalism" trope is inaccurate.

China introduced some elements of capitalism and liberty into its economy, but clearly retains government control over what would otherwise be independent companies.

Whether it chooses to exercise that control is immaterial -- the CCP obviously believes very strongly that if needed it has that control.

And legally, it does.

In that respect, China looks much more like the late-stage Soviet Union, where a diversity of political power groups (some allied, some opposed) give the illusion of a free market to a command economy.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#220

Post by ThinkBackTo »

wozniacki wrote: post #207
sumanthvepa wrote: post #199

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

A lot of people - even some past China-appeasers - would currently disagree with that line of thinking. That was the sort of hopeful thinking that opened the worlds markets to China when Bill Clinton urged lawmakers to let China into the WTO in the year 2000.[1] Several years ago, Robert Kagan in Foreign Affairs magazine, commented that China lacks bigger humanistic aspirations than material ones and a limited vision…

Are you the real Woz?
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