U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#201

Post by dragontamer » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:35 AM UTC

quotz wrote: post #197

dragontamer wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And under Trump, the steel tariffs have basically forced Ford and GM to stop making sedans in the USA and instead make them in Mexico. Ford Focus: moved to China (Ironically). Ford Fusion: Cancelled. GM Volt: Cancelled. Harvey Davidson: moving to Europe. Things aren't exactly simple, and I am not convinced that the tariffs + tax cuts have helped the American worker at all. US Manufacturing is down for two months in a…

Youre thinking in the short-term. Of course there are going to be short term economic losses for the US when Trump announced the bans and the tariffs. But its only short term until the west figures out how to defeat the communists. In the long term, theres gain, not just in the economy of western countries, but most importantly gain in human rights, human dignity, and most of all, liberty! China's oligarchs would get…

> But its only short term until the west figures out how to defeat the communists.

The Berlin wall fell nearly 30 years ago and the USSR has collapsed shortly thereafter.

China's method of governance isn't anything like the communists. They're actually building advanced economies, as the builder of iPhones and lots of other equipment.

China is authoritarian, and probably best described as "legalist" (medieval Chinese philosophy). China engages in a system closer to capitalism, see Alibaba, Huawei and Baidu.

China's "communist party" is only communist in name. Although they're against human rights, they are welcoming of capitalists. Its why Tesla is building a factory there, even with the threat of Tariffs, because the rising Chinese middle class is actually working for that country. China is unfortunately, discovering an "authoritarian capitalism", some kind of crony capitalism which benefits the party and ultimately builds markets (Chinese Stock Market and Chinese Mega-corps are on the rise. Foxconn, Alibaba, Huawei, etc. etc.)

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#202

Post by dragontamer » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:38 AM UTC

isoskeles wrote: post #194

dragontamer wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the Chinese economy is hurt more than the American economy that is one level of success On the contrary, if the US economy was hurt, then its a failure. The point of "America First" is to care most about America, not about hurting others. > Then, if manufacturing moves back to the US and other Western hemisphere nations that's another level of success. No. The only success is if manufacturing moves back to the U…

The trade war, as far as I understand, started largely because companies were complaining about Intellectual Property being stolen. Although I figure the larger reason is China is a threat to American global influence, and we're trying to make sure we're the dominant country. Regardless, I don't know how you quantify "if the US economy was hurt" in a consistent and accurate way. I'm sure some would want to use the S&…

> The trade war, as far as I understand, started largely because companies were complaining about Intellectual Property being stolen.

The Midwest doesn't care about intellectual property rights. IP rights is mostly a west-coast (ie: Hollywood / Silicon Valley) thing. Ford and GM aren't the ones having their tech stolen by China... its Cisco and Apple who have to worry about that stuff.

Frankly: we all know why the trade war started. The trade war started because Mr. Trump got elected and ran on the platform of starting a trade war. Its that simple.

Now its up to the supporters of this platform to put up and explain to the rest of America the situation. Its been three years, and election year is next year. Its time to show off your results.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#203

Post by dragontamer » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:41 AM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #180

dragontamer wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the Chinese economy is hurt more than the American economy that is one level of success On the contrary, if the US economy was hurt, then its a failure. The point of "America First" is to care most about America, not about hurting others. > Then, if manufacturing moves back to the US and other Western hemisphere nations that's another level of success. No. The only success is if manufacturing moves back to the U…

Basically any long term goal has short term costs. Building a new road costs money up front. We don't want jobs just to come to the US. We want to help build the economies of the people scrambling across our border too. So jobs in Mexico is great, as long as there's also new jobs in the US.

> We don't want jobs just to come to the US

Yes we do. Full stop.

> We want to help build the economies of the people scrambling across our border too.

No.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_Air_Conditioner_move_t...

Carrier moving their jobs to Mexico was a key element of Trump's platform, and a major reason why Trump got elected. Trump's base does NOT want the jobs to move to Mexico.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#204

Post by peter303 » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:41 AM UTC

sumanthvepa wrote: post #199

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

Doubt it. China has yet to invent a new class of technology not copied/stolen from Europe or US. There are very good ar perfecting technologies developed elsewhere.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#205

Post by maximente » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:42 AM UTC

ABeeSea wrote: post #84

maximente wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it was certainly anti american worker. here are some reasons why: - would have removed US govt general requirement to buy goods produced in america - would have moved jobs to vietnam (lower min. wage than china) instead of back to US, putting downward wage pressure on US manufacturing workers - protect more investments in offshoring than NAFTA does (read: incentivize offshoring) in both manufacturing and services htt…

Those aren’t necessarily bad for American workers. American manufacturing is high skill and involves precision equipment and manufacturing. What would have moved to Vietnam would have been more basic textiles and cnc/molding. Not sure why everyone glorifies basic manufacturing work like it’s the pinnacle of American labor.

you are being disingenuous when you say "everyone glorifies basic manufacturing work" as i never indicated anything of the sort, so i'm wary of engaging you further.

but, for whatever it's worth, the average US growth rate for advanced technology product exports was higher before Jan 1 1994 (NAFTA) than it was afterwards up until most recent data, 2018. i didn't look at imports, but suspect that the rate of import is higher/increasing. there are various interpretations of that, one of which could be that global demand for high tech stuff is simply slowing outside the US, but that seems unlikely given how much tech is blowing up generally.

another one of which that seems solid is that manufacturing "body of knowledge" / infrastructure probably allows tooling up the workforce and chipping away at high tech sort of stuff that the US may have had a dominant position in.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#206

Post by x86_64Ubuntu » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:45 AM UTC

peter303 wrote: post #204

sumanthvepa wrote: post #199

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

Doubt it. China has yet to invent a new class of technology not copied/stolen from Europe or US. There are very good ar perfecting technologies developed elsewhere.

Not yet. But 20 years ago, we weren't having this conversation of China even being seen as a threat. Back in the day, China was simply and exotic communist land that the West exploited for cheap manufacturing. Now it's appearing to be going down the path of militarily deterring the US and competing in the tech field.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#207

Post by wozniacki » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:47 AM UTC

sumanthvepa wrote: post #199

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

A lot of people - even some past China-appeasers - would currently disagree with that line of thinking.

That was the sort of hopeful thinking that opened the worlds markets to China when Bill Clinton urged lawmakers to let China into the WTO in the year 2000.[1]

Several years ago, Robert Kagan in Foreign Affairs magazine, commented that China lacks bigger humanistic aspirations than material ones and a limited vision to find ways to furnish those material resources for itself. China lacks a grander vision, he said. ( Paraphrasing here. I can't find the article )

Now witnessing world events, I doubt many people would argue against that opinion.

[1]

When the World Opened the Gates of China

Was it a mistake for the U.S. to allow China to join the World Trade Organization? Assessments of the 2001 deal often determine positions in today’s bitter trade debate.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-the-world-opened-the-gates...

edit: citation corrected

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#208

Post by Consultant32452 » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:48 AM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #203

Consultant32452 wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically any long term goal has short term costs. Building a new road costs money up front. We don't want jobs just to come to the US. We want to help build the economies of the people scrambling across our border too. So jobs in Mexico is great, as long as there's also new jobs in the US.

> We don't want jobs just to come to the US Yes we do. Full stop. > We want to help build the economies of the people scrambling across our border too. No. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_Air_Conditioner_move_t... Carrier moving their jobs to Mexico was a key element of Trump's platform, and a major reason why Trump got elected. Trump's base does NOT want the jobs to move to Mexico.

Note the timestamp, from all the way back during his campaign.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-01/trump-s-v...

>The Republican presidential nominee rolled out the new talking point during a surprise trip Wednesday to Mexico, and explained it further on Thursday. In his telling, a prosperous Mexico and Latin America means less illegal immigration to the U.S. and more markets for American exports.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#209

Post by DiogenesKynikos » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:48 AM UTC

stale2002 wrote: post #174

KaoruAoiShiho wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah this is not true, we actually sell more stuff to China than the other way around. They've just not yet really tried to retaliate. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/the-1-4-t... Tariffs hurt yourself first before anyone else. But if shit really hits the fan they no doubt will.

> They've just not yet really tried to retaliate. You seem to be pretty uninformed on the matter. It is common knowledge that it is extremely difficult for Western companies to operate in China. This "retaliation" has been going on for decades. China can't really make it much worse than what they have already been doing for decades.

You're constructing a narrative that puts history on its head. China has allowed foreign firms to come in and exploit cheap Chinese labor. Foreign companies have made enormous profits off of this. Not only do companies like Apple benefit hugely from Chinese labor, but they have also found a market of hundreds of millions of buyers of their product there. Foreign auto manufacturers dominate the Chinese domestic market - VW is the best-selling car brand in China, the world's largest auto market.

You're saying that China has been retaliating by giving foreign companies access to cheap labor and hundreds of millions of customers. That's completely backwards.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#210

Post by logicchains » Wed, Oct 09, 2019, 3:56 AM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #167

vkou wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are wrong to blame an entire country for our addiction to fentanyl. The facts are: 1. Fentanyl has legitimate pharmaceutical uses. 2. There are many, many, many legal manufacturers of Fentanyl, across the world, including Bayer, Johnson&Johnson, Meiji Seika Pharma (Japan), and yes, Chinese manufacturers. Some legal fentanyl ends up getting diverted into illegal channels. 3. There are also many, many, many illegal…

And yet in August we seized a Chinese shipment of fentanyl large enough to kill an entire state's worth of people. When China actually does something beyond lip service, then I'll believe you. Let's not forget, every major industry in China is controlled by the party. Whether it was a controlled substance in China is irrelevant to whether or not they're literally killing us by the tens of thousands a year. https://ww…

Maybe what's killing America is that its sense of personal responsibility has degraded so much that it's now acceptable to blame its drug problems on the Chinese government. Not the individual's fault, not the parents' fault, not the American government's fault, not the society's fault, but the Chinese government's fault.