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Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

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Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#171

Post by FireBeyond »

erulabs wrote: post #118
threeseed wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.

The Taycan is $150k - it is not a mass market EV. The VW ID.3/4 are not coming to North America. The eTron, last month sold 434 units in the US. The Model X sold 1,675 in the same month in the US. The Model 3? 20,250. The I-PACE sold 160 units and the EQC isn't being sold yet. The eTron has been a massive sales disaster, sales are not growing. https://insideevs.com/news/369439/august-audi-e-tron-sales-u... https://in…

> The Taycan is $150k - it is not a mass market EV.

Ahh, I see - the line must be at $120k, right? Since I can order a $115k Tesla which is somehow mass market?

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#172

Post by Phillipharryt »

wpietri wrote: post #50
xkjkls wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared

Let's also note that it's down 30% from peak this year. And that the price is heavily based on hypothesized future performance. And that Musk took a hype-driven strategy that, while getting him low-cost capital and a lot of free marketing, also has downsides. In particular, it creates a population of skeptics, and increases volatility when negative events cause former believers to become skeptics.

You realise all stocks are priced based on predicted future earnings right?

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#173

Post by sockgrant »

threeseed wrote: post #136
sockgrant wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought Tesla superchargers have faster charging speed? They have 150kW charging, is Porsche doing something better? OP said Taycan is the new Model S, I think that your comment vs. mine highlights that this isn't true -- Taycan customers are not the same as Tesla customers. Tesla customers get a good bang for their buck -- speed, range, charging network at a cheap price. Porsche customers get brand, design, & buil…

Porsche Taycan can charge at up to 270kW and they are working on a software update to bump this up to 400-500kW. The Model 3 can charge at 250kW. And not sure why you are comparing the Model 3 to a Taycan as they are completely different segments.

Do you have any comment on my assertion that Taycan is not a Model S replacement?

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#174

Post by woodandsteel »

threeseed wrote: post #78
slg wrote: post #20

That first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars fast enough.

Demand mix is a huge problem though. Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and profit. Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.

At the end of the previous quarter Tesla had 4 billion in the bank, its highest ever. It also has a new factory in China that is about to go into production, and several new models that will be coming out. And its efficiencies of production keep improving.

People like you have been predicting every quarter for the last 10 years that Tesla was on the verge of going out of business, and yet it keeps going from one success to another.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#175

Post by dragontamer »

llsf wrote: post #170
dragontamer wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask yourself: how much does a $5 Billion factory affect net-income. Answer: a $5 Billion factory costs $0 in terms of profit. Its a capital-expenditure, affecting Cash Flow (not profits). Depreciation is how factories "wear out" in the income statement. Tesla is not selling enough cars to make up for its $5 Billion investment in the Gigafactory. After many years, Tesla will only have made ~$4 Billion from a $5 Billio…

The Chinese Gigafactory cost $5B and should eventually produce 500,000 cars (less than 10,000 a week like its counterpart in US). If it takes 5 years to wear out, then Tesla would have to make ~$2k per car produced to pay the factory. I am curious to see how this Chinese factory would perform in the next 6 months. Clearly the plan has been to produce more per factory, and it did not happen yet. But I have faith in au…

> But I have faith in automation to eventually improve the factory's output.

Tesla's CapEx has been disappointingly low. Any kind of improved automation will require new equipment. Unless Tesla can scrape together more cash to improve their CapEx figures, its basically impossible for them to get "Better equipment".

IMO, Musk is spending too much money on unnecessary projects (ex: Cuphead ported to Tesla. Full-self driving custom designed chip. Etc. etc.) and not enough money on simple & boring stuff like better factory equipment.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#176

Post by FireBeyond »

Robotbeat wrote: post #32
microtherion wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

… and not entirely unreasonably so, given that Elon Musk teased that number as late as last week: “We have a shot at achieving our first 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter,” https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surg...

It is unreasonable. "Have a shot" implies it's unlikely to occur.

I don't think it implies that at all. To me, having a shot means that it's entirely in the realm of probability.

"He breaks clear of the defender and has a shot at goal" doesn't imply "it's unlikely to happen", but there's a notable chance of it.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#177

Post by zaroth »

xkjkls wrote: post #161
Robotbeat wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increase the price of any car in the US by over 30%, and I guarantee you'll be suddenly "demand constrained" for that vehicle by your definition.

Ok? And they are decreasing it. I assume the reverse applies?

The decrease in list price is to offset the decreasing tax credit.

E.g. A $60k Model 3 in 2018 with a $10k credit in MA (State + Federal) is now a $50,500 car with a $1,875 credit. (Federal and no State)

Economically speaking the tax credit was always effectively a payment from the government to Tesla. The real consumer price is basically unchanged over the last year.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#178

Post by jm4 »

clouddrover wrote: post #162
jm4 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? Never mind the fact that the Tesla beats every other EV on the road for a moment. The killer feature is the supercharger network. Are other manufacturers going to build 12000-15000 chargers all over the country that can top off the battery in 10-15 minutes before or after they build a decent car? You can’t take these other cars on anything…

> And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? On any CCS charger. Here are some examples of Taycan road trips: - https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/porsche-taycan-makes-408-m... - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIsMlMU8MjI

A road trip where Porsche selected the route with one charge stop isn’t impressive. It’s not a long range car until the typical owner can drive the continental US - or at least most of it. I’ve never seen a fast charger anywhere besides a Tesla supercharger.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#179

Post by zaroth »

new_realist wrote: post #103
danhak wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That annualized delivery growth figure does not take into account that the Fremont factory is pegged, they have another factory coming online this quarter, and have 4 unreleased vehicles in the pipeline—-more than doubling their lineup—-one of which (Model Y crossover) is in the hottest segment.

The Fremont factory was supposed to deliver 10K cars a week.

In February this year Elon predicted they would reach 500k annualized production rate by the end of this year. This includes output from GF3. I think they will reach (or very nearly reach) this target.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#180

Post by clouddrover »

jm4 wrote: post #178
clouddrover wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? On any CCS charger. Here are some examples of Taycan road trips: - https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/porsche-taycan-makes-408-m... - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIsMlMU8MjI

A road trip where Porsche selected the route with one charge stop isn’t impressive. It’s not a long range car until the typical owner can drive the continental US - or at least most of it. I’ve never seen a fast charger anywhere besides a Tesla supercharger.

There are a number CCS charging networks in the US. Electrify America, EVgo, and ChargePoint have roaming agreements so the one account can be used across all networks:

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/evgo-electrify-america-ch...

Tesla should convert their chargers to CCS now rather than sticking with a propriety plug. They've already converted their European chargers to CCS, although they're still not allowing non-Tesla EVs to charge at them:

https://insideevs.com/news/343728/most-tesla-superchargers-n...

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