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Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#121
Good old zerohedge never misses an opportunity to shit on Tesla [0]. Question for Tesla owners: how is the reliability? I'd love to get unto an electric if only to never have to change my oil again but im curious as to what kind of maintenance requirements these cars have.

[0] : https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-stock-tumbles-aft...

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#122
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand mix is a huge problem though. Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and profit. Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.

Last 4 quarters of free cash flow, seems quite sustainable: June 30, 2019 590.40M March 31, 2019 -944.80M Dec. 31, 2018 880.66M Sept. 30, 2018 831.52M

This is what you want to be looking at:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-inc...

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gigafactory 3 in China comes online this month. Manufacturing lines are already validated. I’d expect an increased step up in quarterly deliveries going forward. Also, no more Fremont->China ocean shipping delay. This puts Tesla on track to build and deliver 500k+ vehicles a year next year. This does not include energy storage sales out of GF1 in Nevada.

Tesla has never been able to bring a production line online without a year or so of significant problems.

1) I would absolutely not be surprised if they have delays this time as well, but... 2) most organizations find their first production line(s) more difficult to start up than they expected, even in very different fields like brewing beer. But, the more of them they do, the better they tend to get at it. Although... 3) yeah, they'll be late on this one as well. :)

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#124
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla doesn’t calculate margins the same way other manufacturers do. Take with a grain of salt.

If you mean GAAP v non-GAAP, almost all manufactures release both numbers as does Tesla. Yes, 19% and 15% are different numbers - they're also both very non-negative numbers. This is posted ad nauseam and is absolutely untrue.

No, there's a common "short" theory that Tesla somehow reports GAAP gross margins in a way that is radically different from the rest of the industry. I've never seen any evidence that had any merit for this claim.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#126

I've practically stopped hearing about Tesla in the news, which must mean they're doing great. Great job, Tesla folks!

Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed. Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on. And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every revie…

But is the size of the market growing even faster ? Tesla is making money on each car sold. But you are right, they do invest a lot in R&D and factory expansion (e.g. new factory in China starting this month to produce model 3 cars). I am still not sure if we can tell now if they are doomed, it might be too early. It is a tricky game, but as long as they make money on each car sold, and keep some technological edge (battery, manufacturing, etc.) they should be fine.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#127

I've practically stopped hearing about Tesla in the news, which must mean they're doing great. Great job, Tesla folks!

Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed. Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on. And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every revie…

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out.

The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single Taycan yet. BMW has sold a crappy, overpriced electric car/washing-machine-lookalike for years (i3) without it catching on.

Furthermore, there's no real competition on the horizon just yet for the Model 3. Tesla have a 3-6 year head start on making electric cars which will be difficult to overcome.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.

The Taycan is $150k - it is not a mass market EV. The VW ID.3/4 are not coming to North America. The eTron, last month sold 434 units in the US. The Model X sold 1,675 in the same month in the US. The Model 3? 20,250. The I-PACE sold 160 units and the EQC isn't being sold yet. The eTron has been a massive sales disaster, sales are not growing. https://insideevs.com/news/369439/august-audi-e-tron-sales-u... https://in…

a) Model S isn't a mass market EV either.

b) VW ID.4 is coming to the US.

c) There is more to this world than the US so not sure why you seem to restrict the sales there.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#129

I've practically stopped hearing about Tesla in the news, which must mean they're doing great. Great job, Tesla folks!

Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed. Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on. And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every revie…

So they have competition now, and they're spending more than they're making.

What are they spending it on? Maybe they're spending it on the same aggressive growth without which they'd never have achieved the head start they have now?

I'm not a Tesla owner nor a Tesla fanboy and my original comment was meant to be a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I have to say that your comment seems to me to be dripping with narrative.

Anyway, we will see, won't we? I've got my popcorn ready.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.

The Taycan is more expensive and has 100 less miles range than the S. The VW ID.3 is ugly, and it's long range version is 100 less miles than the Model 3 long range version. Neither have Tesla's charging network either. Range and charging is the most important thing about an ELECTRIC car. 100 miles is a big gap, and every car coming out has that gap.

VW ID.3 looks similar to the Golf which is a massive seller so I wouldn't assume your particular tastes are representative of everyone.

And in many places e.g. EU the Tesla charging network isn't a huge advantage as you have superior alternatives e.g. Ionity.

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