Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is a house an asset but an education isn't? Do you think a potential spouse would pass over the neurosurgeon?
A house is a nearly guaranteed asset. The value will likely steadily rise throughout the years, and with good homeowners insurance you'll get paid even if the house is destroyed. An education guarantees nothing. The neurosurgeon could die, or suffer an injury preventing them from performing surgery, or just plain quit and decide to pursue art instead. Of course the neurosurgeon has a significantly higher potential fu…
Like: 1.5% of neurosurgeons suffer an injury that prevents them from performing surgery. Then adjust all calculations based on this.
As with everything: to know if a single flip coin is going to be heads or not is basically impossible, but over a large enough number, you can be certain the number of heads will be close to 50%.
A single neurosurgeon? Who knows?
The entire population of neurosurgeons? Now we can use actuarial science and measure everything in micromorts.