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Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

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Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#151

Post by WhoBeI »

SergeAx wrote: post #130

Commercially available drones are easily detectable ("a week project", as said before) and very fragile. I believe automatic anti-drone systems are now months from being deployed worldwide. It is not even necessary to be very powerful: something like airsoft gun gonna be enough.

I don't think it's that easy..

There's numbers.. Systems using missiles can be zerged with disposable decoy drones until they have no ammo or tricked if using thermal tracking. Gun based ones can have a hard time tracking/predicting if the drones randomize movement around their attack vector and/or randomize speed.

The environment and the approach will matter as well. They come in low, tracing the terrain or snaking through it, will make keeping lock hard. What if it's rush hours and they come in just above car height along a crowded street.

Then, of course, you can just have them semi-adapt. If they see a bunch of explosions in the air around them maybe switch to pre-programmed mission #2?

Defending against drone swarms is going to be tricky. Here they only had a few low tech ones and had a significant impact. I wonder how one would go about designing a system that should go for a target but be in no rush to get there though..

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#152

Post by [deleted] »

WhoBeI wrote: post #151
SergeAx wrote: post #130

Commercially available drones are easily detectable ("a week project", as said before) and very fragile. I believe automatic anti-drone systems are now months from being deployed worldwide. It is not even necessary to be very powerful: something like airsoft gun gonna be enough.

I don't think it's that easy.. There's numbers.. Systems using missiles can be zerged with disposable decoy drones until they have no ammo or tricked if using thermal tracking. Gun based ones can have a hard time tracking/predicting if the drones randomize movement around their attack vector and/or randomize speed. The environment and the approach will matter as well. They come in low, tracing the terrain or snaking…

[deleted]

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#153

Post by dragonwriter »

yyyk wrote: post #143
dragonwriter wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Houthi rebels and Iran are intimately connected; if Iran has the capability, that lends support to the idea that the Houthis could have carried out the attack, since the Houthis are extensively equipped, trained, funded, and otherwise supported by Iran.

So we go back to Iran either way. Except it's much easier for Iran to launch the attack from other parts of the world, and let the Houthis claim responsibility. Note that it isn't even clear Iran has this range, the foiled attack on Israel suggested they don't, otherwise they'd have launched from further away.

> Note that it isn't even clear Iran has this range

The Houthi claim is that it was done with assistance from sympathizers in Saudi Arabia. That vastly reduces the required range, no matter whether it was the Houthis, Iran, or the Easter Bunny directing the attack.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#155

Post by dragonwriter »

yyyk wrote: post #147
dragonwriter wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it really matter if it was done by the (Iranian proxy) Houthi rebels with assistance from sympathizers in SA, by Iran with assistance from sympathizers in SA, or by Iran from Iran?

Well, half the thread here is about the Houthis allegedly defending themselves vs SA. If this is instead a direct Iranian attack on a different state, the story changes. Once we understand better what happened, we'll know if and how to act in response.

> Well, half the thread here is about the Houthis allegedly defending themselves vs SA. If this is instead a direct Iranian attack on a different state, the story changes.

Not really; everyone who is paying any attention know that the civil war in Yemen is an Iran vs SA proxy war, and that the Houthi claim of responsibility is equivalent to notice of escalation of that war (with the implication that SA deescalating in Yemen is key to undoing the escalation.)

Whether the Houthis are actually operationally involved in the attack is immaterial to its significance.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#156

Post by yyyk »

dragonwriter wrote: post #153
yyyk wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we go back to Iran either way. Except it's much easier for Iran to launch the attack from other parts of the world, and let the Houthis claim responsibility. Note that it isn't even clear Iran has this range, the foiled attack on Israel suggested they don't, otherwise they'd have launched from further away.

> Note that it isn't even clear Iran has this range The Houthi claim is that it was done with assistance from sympathizers in Saudi Arabia. That vastly reduces the required range, no matter whether it was the Houthis, Iran, or the Easter Bunny directing the attack.

Yes, I do think the actual range was far smaller. But smuggling drones, fuel and bombs across the desert is a massive operation too, probably beyond the Houthis either. IMHO, it's a direct Iranian operation from Iraq.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#157

Post by PorterDuff »

zdkl wrote: post #58
PorterDuff wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Toyota Jihad model does appear to be a popular truck in certain quarters. I've been surprised for years that infrastructure wasn't more effectively attacked. It seems to me that a ton of mayhem could erupt just from a guy with a Barrett 50 cal.

The problem there is that that's a well understood threat model, mitigated with (unqualified) manpower. Responding to drones requires a more technical solution which might not be realistic to deploy en masse.

It's just one more case where there is a mismatch between offense and defense realities.

I'd much rather try to design an anti-carrier missile than design a carrier that was missile proof.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#158

Post by yyyk »

dragonwriter wrote: post #155
yyyk wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, half the thread here is about the Houthis allegedly defending themselves vs SA. If this is instead a direct Iranian attack on a different state, the story changes. Once we understand better what happened, we'll know if and how to act in response.

> Well, half the thread here is about the Houthis allegedly defending themselves vs SA. If this is instead a direct Iranian attack on a different state, the story changes. Not really; everyone who is paying any attention know that the civil war in Yemen is an Iran vs SA proxy war, and that the Houthi claim of responsibility is equivalent to notice of escalation of that war (with the implication that SA deescalating i…

My point is that the attack has little to do with Yemen, but has everything to do with Iranian designs. So talking about 'escalation in Yemen war' is meaningless (also, if Iran is the one escalating, maybe they're the ones that should undo it?).

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#159

Post by dragonwriter »

aazaa wrote: post #9

An unusual (and worrying) part about this incident is how drones are being used, not with an explicit military goal in mind, but rather for the purpose of economic strangulation. Like terrorist operatives, drones are relatively cheap and expendible. But unlike terrorism, which seeks to grind away at the enemy's resolve, this kind of attack attempts to deprive an enemy of the money needed to fund its operations. Like…

> An unusual (and worrying) part about this incident is how drones are being used, not with an explicit military goal in mind, but rather for the purpose of economic strangulation.

Economic strangulation is a military goal. In fact, most other military goals are merely methods of positioning better for economic strangulation, which is pretty nearly the ultimate military goal.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#160

Post by reaperducer »

selimthegrim wrote: post #146
reaperducer wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't recall stating that they were going to Houston to learn about petroleum. There are plenty of other reasons most of the world's major energy companies have their North American headquarters in Houston.

Speaking of diversification, what’s Houston’s plan?

From an outsider's perspective, it seems to be more robust than some other cities.

It went from being an oil town to an energy town a few decades ago.

It has massive investments in the medical sector, with 60 institutions generating $25 billion annually.† That's bigger than the GDP of Iceland coming out of just one neighborhood.

NASA Mission Control is still there, and it's the headquarters of NASA's manned spaceflight programs. Though I know there was disappointment that a lot of the Mars stuff went to Alabama.

Shipping has been huge there since the early 1900's. It's the #1 port in America for foreign cargo, #2 in overall cargo, and #16 in the world.†† The Port of Houston also added a cruise ship terminal that seems busy.

I know insurance was becoming a large sector there at one time, but I haven't looked into it lately.

One thing it never really got a handle on was tourism. I think that's because it has a lot more locally-born residents than many large American cities, so it's very inward-looking. But even that is growing. The museums alone logged something like seven million visitors last year.

Overall, it seems to be doing well. To put it in perspective, New York is the only city in America with more Fortune 500 headquarters. The only thing Houston has to worry about is hurricanes.

† https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Medical_Center

†† https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Houston

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