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Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

wsj.com

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Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#141

Post by api »

mrnobody_67 wrote: post #45

Playing out as Naval Ravikant predicted on the After-on podcast: https://after-on.com/episodes-31-60/044 Eventually cheap drones, anonymous assassination markets, etc. will make commercial flying a thing of the past. Written summary of podcast - https://podcastnotes.org/2019/03/20/after-on-naval-01/

No, it won't make commercial aviation a thing of the past. It will make any degree of privacy a thing of the past. This kind of thing will lead to an absolute panopticon police state, and one with popular support. Every single thing you do, read, or buy will be monitored, as will all travel. There will be cameras and sensors literally everywhere, even hidden in wilderness areas. Or maybe you will be required to be implanted with one.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#142

Post by dragonwriter »

yyyk wrote: post #125
aodin wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Houthi spokesman, Yahya Sarea, told al-Masirah TV, which is owned by the Houthi movement and is based in Beirut, that further attacks could be expected in the future. > He said Saturday's attack was one of the biggest operations the Houthi forces had undertaken inside Saudi Arabia and was carried out in "co-operation with the honourable people inside the kingdom". https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-4970…

Of course they'd take responsibility. That's awfully convenient. But it's not their doing.

Does it really matter if it was done by the (Iranian proxy) Houthi rebels with assistance from sympathizers in SA, by Iran with assistance from sympathizers in SA, or by Iran from Iran?

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#143

Post by yyyk »

dragonwriter wrote: post #140
yyyk wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if one believes their 'taking of responsibility', of course you believe they have the flight range, which means you assigned 'their' drones a flight range, which is then picked up to 'explain' it. If you apply a more realistic standard (no actual evidence including footage, no way to guide it, no facilities in Yemen to even test it), it's obvious this is an operation by a state, and only Iran can fit the bill.

The Houthi rebels and Iran are intimately connected; if Iran has the capability, that lends support to the idea that the Houthis could have carried out the attack, since the Houthis are extensively equipped, trained, funded, and otherwise supported by Iran.

So we go back to Iran either way. Except it's much easier for Iran to launch the attack from other parts of the world, and let the Houthis claim responsibility.

Note that it isn't even clear Iran has this range, the foiled attack on Israel suggested they don't, otherwise they'd have launched from further away.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#144

Post by tyingq »

yyyk wrote: post #137
tyingq wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UN investigator's range estimate is from May. https://www.apnews.com/18f9c169f398464ba53c19e3963d3fba

The UN 'investigator' never examined a model, but simply repeated news reports about the previous time the Houthis claimed an attack. That's exactly what I said: * (A) believes the Houthi claims. * Ergo argues they have drone X. * People repeat they have drone X based on (A), despite the only actual source being the Houthis themselves.

"The drone, with a wingspan of 4.5 meters (14.7 feet), has a V-shaped tail fin. It’s powered by a rear-mounted engine and has been found with what appears to be extra fuel tanks welded it to, a U.N. panel of experts found. It carries a 18-kilogram (40-pound) warhead."

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#145

Post by yyyk »

tyingq wrote: post #144
yyyk wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UN 'investigator' never examined a model, but simply repeated news reports about the previous time the Houthis claimed an attack. That's exactly what I said: * (A) believes the Houthi claims. * Ergo argues they have drone X. * People repeat they have drone X based on (A), despite the only actual source being the Houthis themselves.

"The drone, with a wingspan of 4.5 meters (14.7 feet), has a V-shaped tail fin. It’s powered by a rear-mounted engine and has been found with what appears to be extra fuel tanks welded it to, a U.N. panel of experts found. It carries a 18-kilogram (40-pound) warhead."

Yea, I read that. But where does the basis for those comes from? Other unverified claims by the Houthis themselves?

They are in power merely 4 years, no evidence of any tests in Yemen (so they developed this without testing at all?), all this time being involved in a war, barely any imports etc.

Sorry, but arguing they have these capabilities requires just a bit more proof.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#146

Post by selimthegrim »

reaperducer wrote: post #134
fmajid wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Saudis don't need to go to Houston to learn about petroleum. Their domestic universities are world-class on the subject, for obvious reasons.

I don't recall stating that they were going to Houston to learn about petroleum. There are plenty of other reasons most of the world's major energy companies have their North American headquarters in Houston.

Speaking of diversification, what’s Houston’s plan?

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#147

Post by yyyk »

dragonwriter wrote: post #142
yyyk wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course they'd take responsibility. That's awfully convenient. But it's not their doing.

Does it really matter if it was done by the (Iranian proxy) Houthi rebels with assistance from sympathizers in SA, by Iran with assistance from sympathizers in SA, or by Iran from Iran?

Well, half the thread here is about the Houthis allegedly defending themselves vs SA. If this is instead a direct Iranian attack on a different state, the story changes.

Once we understand better what happened, we'll know if and how to act in response.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#148

Post by loopdoend »

paganel wrote: post #98
HarryHirsch wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You needed airplanes, and antiaircraft weapons were so much cheaper. With drones the calculation is the other way around. It completely changes the face of war, offensive warfare is now possible again. Ernst Jünger said something similar when he witnessed the first tanks in World War 1.

> It completely changes the face of war These changes are always really, really interesting. One of my favorite moments similar to this is the Battle of Nicopolis [1] between the Ottomans led by Bayezid I and a Crusader force which included many Western cavalry forces. The much more mobile and easy-moving Ottomans were no match for the Western (especially French) forces who were accustomed with using their heavy armo…

In this case, the French were “no match for” the Turks, as they were not able to put up a fight against the Turks.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#149

Post by littlestymaar »

azinman2 wrote: post #129
jvanderbot wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"fly towards" doesn't scale too well with the huge speed difference. Your intercept cone is super narrow when jets travel 10x your quads speed. Then factor in altitude and this approach only works near airports, where defense is arguably easiest. where this works really, really well is with boats. Iran did this with 15m RHIBs. I work on these problems directly. Its scarey but mostly because we're not thinking about i…

Let’s not forget what’s possible 20 or 200 years ago. You can poison water supplies, you can stab people on the street, you can crate rail guns shooting out nails, you can drive giant semis into crowds of people, you can bomb or otherwise derail trains, etc etc. The ways to inflict carnage are great. But it doesn’t happen all the time, because most people aren’t seeking out murder on a repeated basis. Yes we should f…

The thing is: with most of what you're talking about: the level of risk taken was pretty high. With drones and other kinds of automated devices, the risk is going to drop near zero.

In other words, the real life will be as scary as the internet.

Re: Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

#150

Post by jbattle »

dragonwriter wrote: post #142
yyyk wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course they'd take responsibility. That's awfully convenient. But it's not their doing.

Does it really matter if it was done by the (Iranian proxy) Houthi rebels with assistance from sympathizers in SA, by Iran with assistance from sympathizers in SA, or by Iran from Iran?

If it portends civil war in SA, that'd be significant
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