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94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

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Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#681
post #644

Imagine how much money you could make by creating a bogeyman bitcoin wallet! Step 1, Consolidate 94,000 BTC into one single address the entire crypto world is now watching. Step 2, Send 1,000 BTC from bogeyman bitcoin wallet to exchange crypto wallet. Step 3, Freak the shit out of the market. Promptly sell the entire lot in one single market sell order. Meanwhile you've got another 50,000 BTC or whatever sitting on c…

I don't think there's enough liquidity for that to work, and buying 50,000 BTC x100 short contracts would already crash the price.

That's a great point. Hrmmm... let's do some math on that.

So 50,000 BTC at 100x leverage would create contracts valued at 50,000 * 100 = 5,000,000 BTC

5M BTC * $10,000/BTC = $50,000,000,000

Yea LOL, Bitmex is liquid... but not $50B liquid hah.

I can rest easy now!

Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#683

Imagine how much money you could make by creating a bogeyman bitcoin wallet! Step 1, Consolidate 94,000 BTC into one single address the entire crypto world is now watching. Step 2, Send 1,000 BTC from bogeyman bitcoin wallet to exchange crypto wallet. Step 3, Freak the shit out of the market. Promptly sell the entire lot in one single market sell order. Meanwhile you've got another 50,000 BTC or whatever sitting on c…

Bitcoin isn't (can't be?) regulated.

It can be regulated as much as Gold trading can be I imagine. Jurisdictionally speaking.

Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Repurpose it how? You'd need ASICs to mount a 51% attack. Using a few quickly googled numbers, you'd need ~56EH/s to double the network and mount a 51% attack. An S9 does 14TH/s, so you'd need ~4 million, at $3k each. So around $12 billion (plus the datacenter, operations, etc). You'd pretty much send BTC to being worth $0...and then you're stuck with $12 billion in useless hardware.

Can anybody explain to me why would anybody try to make their alt-coin ASIC-resistant? They claim it is do decrease centralization but like parent says it just makes 51% attack possible with cloud computing and 0 investment in hardware or logistics.

The first ASIC company can just keep the ASICs for themselves.

Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the liquidity is enough, 1) Short Bitcoin to the tune of several Billion dollars. 2) Do a 51% attack and essentially prove it's worthlessness. 3) Profit

If you have amassed enough hashpower to be able to do the 51% attack you have far more to gain economically from continuing to mine for the network than to somehow short it (impossible to find a counterparty for a transaction that large) and then have billions of dollars of hardware that is now worthless

Also if multiple parties attempt to mount a 51% attack then they will have to compete with each other which makes the attack impossible.

Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#686

Imagine how much money you could make by creating a bogeyman bitcoin wallet! Step 1, Consolidate 94,000 BTC into one single address the entire crypto world is now watching. Step 2, Send 1,000 BTC from bogeyman bitcoin wallet to exchange crypto wallet. Step 3, Freak the shit out of the market. Promptly sell the entire lot in one single market sell order. Meanwhile you've got another 50,000 BTC or whatever sitting on c…

Bitcoin isn't (can't be?) regulated.

I can't edit anymore but I was wrong. According to Wikipedia [1] Bitcoin is regulated both as a security and a currency, taxed as if it were property.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_bitcoin_by_country...

Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#687

This was probably an internal transfer, but if it was payment to someone, something interesting then occurs. It then becomes valuable for the original owner to secretly mine a chain, attempting a 51% attack. They could run the attack secretly for up to 40 days and still make a profit. So you'd really need to wait 40 days before you can be sure this transfer is safe. But it gets scarier, if at the end of the 40 days a…

Such a 51% attack is much more expensive in Ethereum 2.0 vs. Ethereum 1.0 and Bitcoin:

  The cost profile of a repeated 51% attack in [Ethereum 2.0's Proof of Stake]
  is as if “your ASIC farm burned down” with each additional round.” ~Vlad Zamfir
And 95% of techstars blockchain applicants are building on Ethereum

  For all the fud that is doing the rounds about Ethereum... 
  of the hundreds of applications I receive from blockchain 
  startups to join @techstars, 95% are building on Ethereum. 
  There hasn’t been any significant shift to other chains in 
  what I’m seeing on a daily basis. [1]
So this kind of potential 51% attack is likely to become less relevant for blockchain applications in general. Of course Bitcoin doesn't benefit from these improvements. Bitcoin may one day even reside within Ethereum.

If you read this far and aren't familiar with the latest progress of Ethereum, consider trying out 4.95% interest rate on your money with Ethereum's Compound Finance https://app.compound.finance/asset/cUSDC . Here's a good article discussing the security implications of doing this with your money https://medium.com/@ameensol/what-you-should-know-before-put...

[1] https://twitter.com/yossihasson/status/1169571179650322433

Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#688
post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first problem here is that there is no link between the identities across the two currencies. You don't know that X lost some BTC and gained some altcoin. You just know that some BTC was transferred from X to Y and some altcoins were transferred from Z to W—completely different addresses. You also don't know precisely what exchange rate was used, and a privacy-minded service would round to a small number of signi…

> It's still not immune to tracing, obviously, but it's a much harder problem than just looking for symmetric transactions. "And with the proper graph theory tools, much more complex interactions could be tracked." > The simplest system, though, is probably just to spend some BTC renting time on a mining rig. It doesn't have to be profitable, just break even. Newly mined bitcoins have no official history to show who…

> "And with the proper graph theory tools, much more complex interactions could be tracked."

So you've said, and I already agreed that it isn't impossible. But do you have any real-world examples where someone followed reasonable OPSEC (fixed denominations, mixers, randomized timing) and still had their transactions successfully traced via these "proper graph theory tools"?

Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#689
post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the laws requiring reporting of every transaction? I know it's necessary to report transactions which establish the cost basis for capital gains, but doesn't mandate report of all transactions.

The IRS considers Bitcoin an asset. Every time you buy/sell goods with Bitcoin or just plain buy/sell Bitcoin, you have to report that as if you were buying/selling any other asset, like stocks. So most Bitcoin transactions will be subject to capital gains tax. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040515/are-t...

Please correct me if I’m wrong — does this fact not imply that any attempt to actually use cryptocurrency as a currency to buy and sell goods (I.e. how we currently commonly use USD) is completely impossible, since the capital gains taxes will cause everything to cost substantially more?

Re: 94k Bitcoin (1B USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

#690

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are ASICs totally useless for non Bitcoin computing?

the "AS" in ASIC stands for Application Specific. SO these machines are made to specifically mine bitcoin, other ASICs do other jobs, but individual units cannot transfer from one job to another and cannot be re-purposed.

Right, the ASIC in your DVD player that does MPEG-4 decoding is useful for something other than Bitcoin mining. But it's not useful for Bitcoin mining at all. Similarly for a motor-controller ASIC, an HDMI encoding ASIC, a GPRS radio ASIC, and so on.
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