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Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

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Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Considering how Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. benefited from international support, what can go wrong ? At least the women in Afghanistan did - and now piece by piece their freedom is taken away from them with every day as the Taliban advance to re-take control again. The mistake of the Western world in all three conflicts was not entering it (one might argue it was neccessary to protect the human rights of the po…

> At least the women in Afghanistan did - and now piece by piece their freedom is taken away from them with every day as the Taliban advance to re-take control again. How can you say this? Freedom is not disconnected from economic conditions. All the US army did in Afghanistan was kill as many "talibans" (which most were not) as possible and give away public infrastructure to private (usually foreign) corporations. N…

> That's why the talibans who once were a tiny conservative formation have been growing since the US invaded.

You know that they controlled about 90% of Afghanistan before the US invaded, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan

Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#33
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the moment things get seriously out of hand, I'm fairly certain they'll send in everything they got I'm not so sure: they wouldn't want to be seen internationally as the 800-Lb gorilla. I suspect they'll impose sanctions and start making food and other essentials hard to obtain.

> I'm not so sure: they wouldn't want to be seen internationally as the 800-Lb gorilla. China didn't have any issue with being the gorilla in cases like Tibet. So, no real reason why HK would be any different.

Sure there are. Tibet isn’t a global financial and commercial hub with a history deeply rooted in the west.

China hasn’t forgotten the brutal economic sanctions and political isolation it faced in the wake of Tiananmen Square back in ‘89. A similar event in HK would certainly result in sanctions, which a struggling Chinese economy can’t handle.

The contrast between political fallout from an HK crackdown vs Tibet is vast, they aren’t very comparable situations.

Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With some guns, some tanks, some international support, and the right leader, Hong Kong could win their independence from the monsters who run China. First of all, that's not what they're protesting for at the moment. All they want is to maintain their autonomy without interference from China, which was promised for 50 years. Most people know that Independence isn't feasible. (Both politically and geographically) T…

>None of them compared to the freedom fighters in Hong Kong. They do the things that Americans are too cowardly to imagine, like shutting down airports and transit. Because the Hong Kong protests represent the entire cross section of society. It has been a very, very long time since there was a protest inducing issue in the US that came close to that. >The moment people start using guns, will also be the moment when…

The UK is not a police state China is.

Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With some guns, some tanks, some international support, and the right leader, Hong Kong could win their independence from the monsters who run China. First of all, that's not what they're protesting for at the moment. All they want is to maintain their autonomy without interference from China, which was promised for 50 years. Most people know that Independence isn't feasible. (Both politically and geographically) T…

> the moment things get seriously out of hand, I'm fairly certain they'll send in everything they got I'm not so sure: they wouldn't want to be seen internationally as the 800-Lb gorilla. I suspect they'll impose sanctions and start making food and other essentials hard to obtain.

> I'm not so sure: they wouldn't want to be seen internationally as the 800-Lb gorilla.

Of course not, which is why they still haven't done anything drastic, even though online commenters constantly keep saying this will be Tiananmen 2.0 or that tanks will roll in soon. China has been building it's international profile, and one wrong move with HK will destroy everything.

But I do suspect that they'll be willing to sacrifice a bit of their reputation, if things seriously get out of hand, I do think they'll eventually send in the PLA, on request of the HK government. While that will quell the unrest, it will seriously damage HK's reputation as a safe financial city. Even the recent protests has caused companies to start looking at other nearby cities, Singapore probably being the nearest one.

Tourism and property sales has already taken a massive hit, and will likely put a lot of people out of business by the end of the year.

But with that said, the only thing that can resolve this is for the government to do whatever it takes to stop the protests. Like it or not, HK is quickly losing its appeal to international businesses and travelers.

Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With some guns, some tanks, some international support, and the right leader, Hong Kong could win their independence from the monsters who run China. The moment military grade weaponry is used by freedom fighters (or protesters, or anything that stands in the way of mainland China) the whole thing will be over in 48hours to China's advantage. International support ? So, going at war with one of the top 3 nation on…

>Considering how Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. benefited from international support, what can go wrong ? It's called a proxy war. Literally every other regional power is salivating over the idea of a massive thorn in China's side that a) gets them slapped with first world sanctions and b) gives them less free time to bully everyone else in the region. You're kidding yourself if you think all their intelligence agenc…

The shovel-ready plans probably exist, but nobody wants to use them. It would carry the risk of a region-scale conflict, if not a global one.

Imagine the United States' response to a covert campaign by Russia to arm protesting secessionists in Manhattan.

Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#37

After Cheney's scaling event, I mean Bush's invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, San Francisco protested hard. A lot of their techniques were innovative and new, and the organization was stunning. Occupy was even better tactically and strategically. None of them compared to the freedom fighters in Hong Kong. They do the things that Americans are too cowardly to imagine, like shutting down airports and transit. Have you…

> With some guns, some tanks, some international support, and the right leader, Hong Kong could win their independence from the monsters who run China. You're suggesting engaging in a proxy war with China?

never get involved in a land war in Asia

Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#38
> In crowded situations where internet access may be near-nonexistent, Orca encourages protesters on the edge of a crowd—where data coverage is better—to download the map, then AirDrop it into the crowd so it can make its way deep into the middle. “We call it rippling out, or rather rippling in,” he said.

This is by far the most interesting part for me. My fear is always what happens when authorities "turn off the hose", but mesh networks like this are inspiring.

Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With some guns, some tanks, some international support, and the right leader, Hong Kong could win their independence from the monsters who run China. The moment military grade weaponry is used by freedom fighters (or protesters, or anything that stands in the way of mainland China) the whole thing will be over in 48hours to China's advantage. International support ? So, going at war with one of the top 3 nation on…

>Considering how Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. benefited from international support, what can go wrong ? It's called a proxy war. Literally every other regional power is salivating over the idea of a massive thorn in China's side that a) gets them slapped with first world sanctions and b) gives them less free time to bully everyone else in the region. You're kidding yourself if you think all their intelligence agenc…

I think that if China forcefully suppresses HK, that will drive Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei--and to a lesser extent Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Australia--into a regional alliance with the US, a sort of ASEAN++/SEATO2. Its major agenda would likely be diplomatically evicting China from territorial claims in the South China Sea, particularly with respect to the "nine dash line".

If HK can be portrayed as the model of what PRC does to dominate, suppress, and assimilate lesser economic powers, and its occupation of Paracels and Spratlys as an overture to securing absolute control over all economic resources in the South China Sea, the neighboring nations will likely line up behind the US to discourage a hot military war, and then do everything they can to close ranks diplomatically and economically to keep PRC from taking pieces of their pie.

The mass-internment of Uighurs is also likely to spur the Muslim populations of Indonesia and Malaysia to wrongfoot China diplomatically and raise international support for sanctions.

China's main crime is carrying a really big stick, and speaking loudly instead of softly. If a country uses its strength too much, then it starts creating problems that only greater shows of force can fix. All that work on soft power in South America and Africa could go straight down the drain.

Re: Real-Time maps warn Hong Kong protesters of water cannons and riot police

#40
post #22

HK protest is probably the most high-tech protest ever. I suspect many governments are studying it now to learn from it.

And people who may need to protest in the future, and rightfully so.

I hope Taiwan is watching closely, for that and several other reasons.
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