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Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

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Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#111

Post by justaguyhere »

tobtoh wrote: post #72
dirtyid wrote: post #2

I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. In context of Lams leaked resignation remarks yesterday, it looks like Lam is going rogue. She's setting herself up to be replaced via disobedience, because all signs pointed to Emergency Regulations Ordinance being invoked if protest continues. Her legacy is already ruined, but I think she doesn't have the stomach to double down that far. Beijing specifically instr…

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

each time, HK will lose a few more rights they used to have.

Very likely. Sucks for HK people though :(

Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example.

As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#112

Post by kenneth »

ackbar03 wrote: post #18
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can someone translate / explain [five demands, not one less]? From the article: “Apart from the formal withdrawal of the legislation, the protesters have asked for the government to set up a commission of inquiry to investigate police conduct in tackling the protests, grant amnesty to those who have been arrested, stop characterising the protests as riots, and restart the city’s stalled political reform process.” A…

Third and Fourth are ridiculous. I'm sorry but you don't set things on fire on the streets, bite people's finger off, throw petrol bombs, tie up people at the airport and say hey guys please grant amnesty, this wasn't a riot. Please grow up and take responsibility. If you choose to make those actions you take the consequences for them. Fifth, I can understand and dialogue can start and bickering in legislation, whate…

There's an unequal power dynamic. There's been excessive aggression on both sides. There are many example of the police using far excessive force, of shooting tear gas in MTR stations, of terrorizing innocent bystanders when going after protesters.

If the protestors are prosecuted for what they did, but the police get to walk away, it's unacceptable to them. They won't accept it.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#113

Post by mikeash »

bouncycastle wrote: post #104
rayiner wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Violence can never be a solution, only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change. That’s facially not true. The American Revolution, the French Revolution, the Bangladeshi War of Independence, Irish independence, etc. History is full of examples where the right to self determination had to be vindicated with guns. Categorically delegitimizing violence against an oppressive state is a bad precedent.…

History is littered with graveyards upon graveyards of violent struggles for independance that didn't end up so well. Meanwhile, in the modern times, peaceful protests can being down even nuclear armed superpowers as we've seen in the 80s. Take a look https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebell...

And peaceful protestors can also be massacred and completely fail to bring about any change.

Peaceful protests can work sometimes. Other times they do nothing. Same with armed resistance. Declaring one or the other to be the only possible way to bring about change is in direct contradiction to the facts.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#114

Post by devchix »

jplayer01 wrote: post #71
anvandare wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change. Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time." All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun. All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to rev…

The non-violent protest thing seems like a myth that needs to be taken out back and shot, violently. We've seen for decades what they accomplish - absolutely nothing. It reminds me of this. https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-violence-that-help...

This NPR podcast/article argues different.

"...found that major nonviolent campaigns are successful 53% of the time, while violent campaigns are successful only 26% of the time."

The Protest Tipping Point (podcast): https://www.npr.org/2019/06/25/736007317/the-protest-tipping...

The Magic Number Behind Protests: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/06/25/735536434/the-...

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#115

Post by derukopi »

nailer wrote: post #22
ackbar03 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Third and Fourth are ridiculous. I'm sorry but you don't set things on fire on the streets, bite people's finger off, throw petrol bombs, tie up people at the airport and say hey guys please grant amnesty, this wasn't a riot. Please grow up and take responsibility. If you choose to make those actions you take the consequences for them. Fifth, I can understand and dialogue can start and bickering in legislation, whate…

You're correct, assault is assault and should be punished. Incidentally, most of the more intense violence I've witnessed has been from the HK police: a quick selection from the front page of https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/ - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz2dba/hong_kong_... - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/czgvb7/emily_lau_... - https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/cz93rd/suspected…

Just FYI, both Reuters and CNN dispute the 2 million number, as some of the photos were manipulated,

- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-back...

- https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/19/asia/viral-photo-hong-kong-pr...

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#116

Post by nailer »

justaguyhere wrote: post #111
tobtoh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

each time, HK will lose a few more rights they used to have. Very likely. Sucks for HK people though :( Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game

Hong Kong needs people in the PRC to start demanding their own representation. The CCP has might, but not enough to take on the Chinese people a second time. You can't be a people's republic if the people didn't vote for you.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#117

Post by dragonsh »

tekkk wrote: post #93
dragonsh wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power A non-violent protestor is a person who does not fear anything, and the person who doesn't fear is the most powerful one. Violence is a result of fear, that's the reason need to use weapons and aids to fight back to increase the chances of survival. A true warrior is a fearless person who respond to violence with non-violence and make violent person ashamed…

Well, you know. You expect the violent person to be ashamed of themselves. That's a very bold assumption. A psychopath or sociopath won't feel a thing when they order their army to mow down peaceful protestors. It's a beautiful idea really. But when you are given no option other than to fight, do you think it's wrong for them to do so? Jewish, Armenians, Chinese under Japanese occupation? Might have not mattered, mig…

It's not just a claim many studies do prove non violent struggle are more successful in bringing change than violent once. [1]

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2014/07/24/the-proven...

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#118

Post by trevyn »

arcturus17 wrote: post #31
artsyca wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how this factors in but I want to offer my intuitive sense of the situation and how it differs from earlier political phenomena -- 1989 is 30 years ago it may as well be 300 and 1939 is a millennium away at best The difference between then and now is the drastic shift we have undergone as a human consciousness (recommended reading: Marshall McLuhan: Understanding Media) If the medium is the message as it…

> the drastic shift we have undergone as a human consciousness I don't really know what this means, but if you think that the inherent nature of the human soul has changed in the last few decades, think again... If tomorrow there was a catastrophic event such as a worldwide nuclear fallout, humans would be at each other's throats in the blink of an eye. The only thing really keeping us together are institutions and c…

>we are fundamentally not different from the Romans

We have retained the capacity to regress in the blink of an eye, and we have also acquired fundamentally new powers of thought on an unprecedentedly broad scale.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#119

Post by autarch »

justaguyhere wrote: post #111
tobtoh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

each time, HK will lose a few more rights they used to have. Very likely. Sucks for HK people though :( Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game

> Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example.

Except in Tunisia, which is the one success story from that time period. It's now a functioning democracy. Of course the real test is how it does over the long term, but at least so far it's an example of real change in the region.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#120

Post by dsfyu404ed »

justaguyhere wrote: post #111
tobtoh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

each time, HK will lose a few more rights they used to have. Very likely. Sucks for HK people though :( Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game

>As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game

As long as they have food, water and the will to fight. They can play the long game too if they are so inclined. Eventually the CCP will get tired of the expensive, resource sucking bridge to nowhere. Sure, China could carpet bomb HK but the more you destroy it the less it's worth and the harder it is to justify involvement.

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