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Why California May Go Nuclear

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61–70 of 102 posts

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#61
post #36
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Conservationists need to [...] Nuclear boosters need to start showing numbers proving this point instead of taking potshots on HN. Nuclear needs to be worthwhile on a balance sheet before anyone is going to take it seriously. Even now, it's cheaper to build out wind and solar. And the new technologies are rapidly getting cheaper. Show numbers.

Wind and solar, no matter how cheap, are never going to be reliable sources of baseline power. They fluctuate, and something needs to keep producing power when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing.

The assumption that baseline power is necessary seem like an unwarranted assumption to me, an idea that is unquestioned because that's the way things are done now. Maybe adequate provisioning of sufficiently uncorrelated, variable power sources combined with some storage is enough to replace all baseline and peak power sources. Maybe this can be done with less expense than nuclear + peaker plants. I haven't seen any nuclear proponents defend the necessity of the baseline power concept with an actual analysis showing that alternatives can't work though.

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#62

I hope they dont put it in a seismically active area, Fukushima used to be in one.

Diablo Canyon is in an area that's moderately seismically active. It's easy to see the only lesson from Fukushima the meltdown of the Daichi reactors, but that was due to not being designed for the tsunami (or rather, the combination of earthquake and tsunami). The earthquake protections of other reactors (Fukushima Daini) worked as designed. Modern reactors are safer than older reactors.

The full story of Fukushima has not really been comprehensively told, at least in English language media. I'm not really sure that new reactors would necessarily be safer than Fukushima Daichi unit 1, because that unit had an isolation condenser system. The IC is exactly the type of passive safety system that is touted with new designs -- it can keep the reactor cool for a couple of days just by turning a couple of valves, and it can operate indefinitely if its water supply is topped off by, for example, a firetruck. Supposedly the system automatically activated, but then was manually deactivated by reactor personnel before the tsunami arrived to avoid shock cooling the reactor. After the tsunami arrived, the system was not turned back on again apparently out of confusion, but exactly what happened is still mysterious to me.

All of that said I still think that nuclear is the safest and least environmentally damaging method of power generation we've yet invented. Like air travel, due to radiation's mysteriousness, it's held to a much higher standard of safety and environmental impact than other forms of power generation, and that has led to gross distortions in perception and regulation that lead us to have less safety and a worse environment.

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, until that rocket fails, distributing nuclear waste over a large area.

Mitigate risks while emphasising benefits. What if we could make it safe? What if it was better than anything we could make otherwise?

Rockets have a disturbing tendency to blow up on a regular basis. Russia just tried this experiment with a nuclear cruise missile, which blew up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyonoksa_radiation_accident

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#64
post #52
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone pointed out recently that nuclear is only as safe as its operator - the Us Navy has never had a reactor accident for instance. Still the dangers are Chernobyl and Fukushima - uninhabitable areas where no one can go for generations.

Really? I actually grew up near Chernobyl and my parents still work on the plant (e.g. have been going there e every day for more than 30 years) Don’t believe everything you see on HBO shows. And no, radiation isn’t contagious and can’t (and did not) bring down the helicopter

[deleted]

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#65

> Diablo generates 9% of California’s electricity and 20% of its clean, carbon-free electricity. It's remarkable that one nuclear plant generates 9% of the electricity for the entire state of California, and that they would have ever considered closing it (unless absolutely necessary). Build a few more of those over time and California has no power concerns for the next 50-60 years combined with the expansion of othe…

California also buys something like half of the output of the Palo Verde plant outside of Phoenix.

On the other hand...

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-electricity-solar/

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#66
post #36
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Conservationists need to [...] Nuclear boosters need to start showing numbers proving this point instead of taking potshots on HN. Nuclear needs to be worthwhile on a balance sheet before anyone is going to take it seriously. Even now, it's cheaper to build out wind and solar. And the new technologies are rapidly getting cheaper. Show numbers.

Wind and solar, no matter how cheap, are never going to be reliable sources of baseline power. They fluctuate, and something needs to keep producing power when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing.

Adding nuclear to wind/solar doesn't eliminate the need for peaker plants or batteries because nuclear can only provide baseline power.

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#67
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could still decommission them for safety reasons and not just go on ignoring or hiding it. Maybe that would give back some of the lost faith in the technology. Meanwhile humans doing stupid stuff are still a problem with nuclear. Recently we had this guy with his Bitcoin mining rig and whatever happened in Russia.

You can't take any power generator offline for any length of time, without tremendous political backlash. People need their air conditioners! But new ones often dwarf the previous ones, and when they come online, then you can take an old, small one offline.

It's not like lifetime of those plants has been something that just came up recently. You have to plan for that and if you didn't, you need to buy power elsewhere and pay the price for your negligence. This would be the way to go if you care for safety. If you don't, you shouldn't build even more of those reactors because this technology is obviously nothing for you.

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#68
post #33
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Windmills can’t provide steady base load power all the time. They need to be paired with some sort of storage technology.

Then show numbers for why we need nuclear for peaking capacity instead of just using existing gas and hydro while we wait for new technologies to arrive. Again, the problem isn't that the alternatives are perfect or that nuclear doesn't work, it's that nuclear power is outrageously expensive . And no amount of internet argumentation or industry-driven legislation is going to change that fact. Make it cheaper, then co…

It's difficult to provide concrete numbers here. A lot of independent research is needed on data. All one can point is examples.

For example, it is acknowledged by many that Germany made a mistake in shutting down their nuclear power plants since all they have done is simply increase their reliance on coal plants. Also, their renewables share of 36% quoted by several folks on HN also includes biomass!

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-climate-change-green...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06...

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#69
post #10

Conservationists need to really make peace with the fact that the only way out of climate change involves building a very, very strong nuclear energy portfolio. This is difficult for people because it requires engaging in politics because these things are only as safe as they are well maintained. But actually, we do a surprisingly good job in America at keeping our nuclear plants running rather well, and we should be…

> But actually, we do a surprisingly good job in America at keeping our nuclear plants running rather well, and we should be investing in many, many more.

No we don't.

The federal government didn't even mandate earthquake impacts for nuclear plants until 'after' the disasters in Japan.

Nevada is still used as a dumping site that is overfilled with leaking nuclear waste. The Republican senator put a hold on Trump nominees until the DOE promised to eventually ship out some nuclear waste a few years after they illegally shipped the waste in.

I found out the former after a PG&E outreach at my university that California was alone in most states over mandates on seismic fault planning for the nuclear industry. PG&E was trying to save the Diablo Canyon Power Plant. I felt that was a very pathetic overview of US regulatory framework. The latter was recently in the news (2 months ago?).

> Conservationists need to really make peace with the fact that the only way out of climate change involves building a very, very strong nuclear energy portfolio.

Disagree, your opinion is 10 years out of date from the facts.

Solar and wind prices have collapsed well below nuclear and coal.

Battery tech is advancing to be competitive towards baseload costs. Samsung plans to ship a graphene battery in cell phones. Makes me very curious towards how graphene can be used for battery plants.

Renewables are already competitive in Australia. Despite lots of sun and coal baseload costs in Australia are very high due to industry and government corruption.

https://www.inverse.com/article/51515-tesla-s-battery-has-al...

Re: Why California May Go Nuclear

#70
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I'd describe as a 'narrowly rational view'. All other things being equal, x leads to y. In this case - political, economic and social conditions remaining in roughly the same range as they have since the post war period. This is quite frankly a wildly unsupported assumption - when compared to the span of human history, or even taking the 20th century into account (rather than merely the post war period).…

Nuclear power plants do not "become deadly (and indeed irreparable) under conditions of economic collapse etc" outside of comic books. The power source that might apply to is hydro electric dams. Those dams won't stand forever without active maintenance, and the flood wave can sweep away entire cities.

Indeed. The best example is Banqiao Dam failure:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam

Its failure in 1975 caused as many as 230,000 deaths. The death toll of this disaster was considered a state secret until 2005 when it was declassified.[4] According to the Hydrology Department of Henan Province, approximately 26,000 people died in the province[13] from flooding and another 145,000 died during subsequent epidemics and famine. In addition, about 5,960,000 buildings collapsed, and 11 million residents were affected. Unofficial estimates of the number of people killed by the disaster have run as high as 230,000 people.

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