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Peloton S-1

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Re: Peloton S-1

#131

Post by [deleted] »

kjbfojbejib wrote: post #82
uptown wrote: post #11

Under the risks section: "We derive a significant majority of our revenue from sales of our Bike and a decline in sales of our Bike would negatively affect our future revenue and operating results;" What many people don't know is that you can access all their classes using your own exercise bike and their apps, paying a little over 1/4 of the normal monthly subscription fee. The limitations of this approach is that y…

I did exactly that for over a year, at which point I felt I had contributed my fair bit to their operation. Now I have about twenty classes ripped to my device that I select at random and use on an excellent spin bike at my gym.

[deleted]

Re: Peloton S-1

#132

Post by PierceJoy »

eddyg wrote: post #130

I use a Keiser M3i with the Peloton app on an iPad. It’s great. The Peloton app records heart rate and cadence via Bluetooth. I run the Keiser app on my phone to record additional metrics, such as power. Much better solution than being tied to a proprietary Peloton bike while still enjoying the benefits of the always-fresh Peloton classes. Mike biggest complaint is the music change. Way too many knock-off versions of…

Have you ridden the Peloton bike? Wondering it compares to the Keiser, which I like quite a bit.

Re: Peloton S-1

#133

Post by foldingmoney »

paxys wrote: post #107
tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

Being "on the verge of a recession" means nothing. There have been people constantly predicting the next recession since 2011. And there was zero talk of an economic downturn in 2007.

That's not true. The yield curve inverted in 2006, people talked about recession for a while, then the general conclusion was that 'it's different this time', and right after everyone forgot about the inversion, the recession hit.

But don't worry, it's different this time. ;)

Re: Peloton S-1

#134

Post by MuffinFlavored »

gniv wrote: post #113
tempsy wrote: post #18

It really makes we wonder how we could be on the verge of a recession when companies like this become successful? Maybe I'm just too cheap to ever buy something like this but it feels like a mass marketed luxury good that requires a decent level of consumer confidence to have succeeded.

That's exactly why bubbles form and lead to economic cycles: people get too confident and overextend themselves. In this particular cycle, more companies seem to be using this profitable business model: charge huge margins for your product and sell it on credit. Bikes, SUVs, higher education (phones, too, but that's not new). When the economy hits a blip -- say, due to a trade war -- people start losing their jobs, d…

> people get too confident and overextend themselves.

It sounds like you are stereotyping Peloton purchasers into one group, then assuming that the majority of them can't afford nice things.

What if you look at it from the flip side and say "people buying $2.4k in-house bikes have a lot of money and all is well in the world"?

Re: Peloton S-1

#135

Post by buttcoinslol »

I wish you didn't have to wait a week to buy options for newly listed stocks, I want to write calls and buy puts on this ticker

Once consumer credit dries up, this company goes poof

Re: Peloton S-1

#136

Post by buttcoinslol »

RobPfeifer wrote: post #118
etjossem wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely this. A bubble doesn't look like one until it pops, so you can't just say "everyone's buying $2000 spin bikes, everything must be fine." For starters, Peloton does a majority of its sales through Affirm and other consumer financing instruments, and books them as revenue. It's more accurate to say "everyone is buying $2000 spin bikes using 30% APR installment loans." In the risks section, Peloton says that…

The Affirm loan product for peloton is 0% only (with no late fees in any circumstance).

Cheap credit will not last forever..

Re: Peloton S-1

#137

Post by trimbo »

I will invest in this company because I love the product and so does everyone I know who uses it.

But the general and administrative costs in 2019 seem ridiculously high. The tender offer last year only makes up 1/3 of that increase. What's up with that?

Re: Peloton S-1

#138

Post by exxybebbi »

Androider wrote: post #74
mdorazio wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under $30 a month for a 24 hour fitness membership via Costco with zero initial cost ;) "Nice" gyms like Equinox are of course significantly more. It's important to segment the gym market into different tiers and niches, and figure out what the market size is for each. Same as for direct equipment sales like this. To your point, though, I suspect the people who would pony up for a Peloton are the same people who woul…

Equinox is $180-$500/mo, and popping up like mushrooms on every block in NY (36 so far). A Peloton bike is downright frugal in comparison.

I think there is probably significant overlap between folks who do both.

Re: Peloton S-1

#139

Post by chrisgd »

eddyg wrote: post #130

I use a Keiser M3i with the Peloton app on an iPad. It’s great. The Peloton app records heart rate and cadence via Bluetooth. I run the Keiser app on my phone to record additional metrics, such as power. Much better solution than being tied to a proprietary Peloton bike while still enjoying the benefits of the always-fresh Peloton classes. Mike biggest complaint is the music change. Way too many knock-off versions of…

Saves money on music licensing costs

Re: Peloton S-1

#140

Post by scarface74 »

runako wrote: post #124
paxys wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2 spinning classes in a real-world spin studio Located in the most expensive markets in the country.

(Not a spin-class person.) I thought that was a high number, and I live in a lower-cost market (Atlanta). Looking at one-off/small chain spinning places that do not have outposts in New York State or California, I found single-class pricing to be in the $20-25 range. Given the cost of living difference between here and NYC, the $30 quoted for LA/NY/SF seems on target.

Many gyms have free spin classes as part of their membership and many corporate gyms offer it for free. I taught classes part time all across metro Atlanta for years as a working hobby.
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