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Facebook hype will fade

cnn.com

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Re: Facebook hype will fade

#11
Comparing Google with Facebook. I was using google since it was pretty unknown, I think it is still, after all these years, a good tool for searching. I will never use facebook, I think local solutions for meeting people will emerge soon and they will be much more appealing and useful.

Facebook only can exists if it can find a way to be a local tool.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#12

I really think he doesn't know what he's talking about. Let's look at his qualifications. He's a professor of "Media Studies" at the New School. I think he's going to be taking everything with a lot of lit crit palavering. Myspace to Facebook is a shallow analogy. If we would like to make an analogy with that analogy it would be like comparing Yahoo and Google. Facebook has far exceeded the market penetration of MySp…

we are never sure if MySpace every developed that.

Myspace revenues are estimated at $385 million. Facebook's are estimated at $1.6 billion.

That puts myspace revenues at 24% of Facebook's.

Myspace has 66m users. Facebook has 500m users.

That puts Myspace's userbase at 13% of Facebook's.

In actuality, that means Myspace has found a way to generate more revenue on a per-user basis than Facebook. I'd say that's pretty credible.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#13
post #4

I don't necessarily agree the article but I'd be interested in hearing opinions on the interesting point the author presents near the end of the article: That social networking sites are like physical social spaces that will rise and fall in popularity.

As social networks get bigger, you keep adding more and more connections to the point where that set you've created doesn't matter / mean anything anymore.

You think? I'm more liberal in my friending policy than most (I think - at least that's my perception), but, still, I've met in person >85% of the people I'm friends with on FB.

I could see that being true for me regarding something like Twitter, though... there, if something new came along ("SuperTwitter") that replaced it, I'd be able to take the 10% that I really like (the 10% I'd know by name) and follow them on that new network.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#14
I see so many people compare facebook to (late '90s) AOL these days. But the two never had much in common with each other. I think if facebook continues to bring out innovative ways/products/features that connect people with each other it will continue to be successful. Will it one day fade away? Probably. As do most huge dotcoms. But some even stay relevant for well over a decade (ebay, match, expedia, google). Most of them get a bit smaller and cruise along.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#15

I agree that popularity of social networks is faddish, and that Facebook will follow that rise and fall pattern, however... I think that an open, distributed social networking protocol is a game changer. If there exists the ability to move between social networks while maintaining your social graph, that makes the way that social networks rise and fall very different than when sites hold your social graph hostage if…

It continues to be hard for me to envision what that would really look like in practice. I don't mean from a network typology standpoint; I mean how would it look in my browser?

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#16
post #5

facebook growth went something like this: college --> high school --> young adults --> everyone Trendy stuff generally follows the same cascade, more or less, where you don't see college students emulating the dress habits of the elderly. facebook's biggest potential for failure is in not capturing the next generation of young users. The young users pick up some other social network, everyone else follows suit, and f…

I got my Facebook account in 2005 when I was a college freshman. At first it was amazing, then they opened it up to high schoolers which was okay, but not really what I wanted from Facebook. Then they added things like the Friend Feed which bombarded you with "Your friend [name you know] just added [someone you don't know or care about}." Which was okay, but then they opened the gates and suddenly all your coworkers and anyone you've ever talked to for more than 3 minutes is now adding you.

I think for me, the longer I've had my Facebook, the less useful it has gotten and the less time I've actually spent on it. It's like talking in a room with everyone you've ever met listening in. It's unnatural. I think Facebook's market will eventually fragment-- LinkedIn being the first chink in FB's armor, I imagine the next will be a college exclusive network like how Facebook got started.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#17

I agree that popularity of social networks is faddish, and that Facebook will follow that rise and fall pattern, however... I think that an open, distributed social networking protocol is a game changer. If there exists the ability to move between social networks while maintaining your social graph, that makes the way that social networks rise and fall very different than when sites hold your social graph hostage if…

It continues to be hard for me to envision what that would really look like in practice. I don't mean from a network typology standpoint; I mean how would it look in my browser?

Here is my Appleseed friends list:

http://developer.appleseedproject.org/profile/michael.chisar...

Keep in mind, this is beta software in active development, so you'll notice a few bugs here and there (and the live server is missing a major update I'm running locally).

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#18
post #5

facebook growth went something like this: college --> high school --> young adults --> everyone Trendy stuff generally follows the same cascade, more or less, where you don't see college students emulating the dress habits of the elderly. facebook's biggest potential for failure is in not capturing the next generation of young users. The young users pick up some other social network, everyone else follows suit, and f…

facebook beginning in college can be explained because its creator was in college at that time, and is natural to expand in your habitat. Sometime young people copy old habits of old people, so I don't see any trend.

The power for expansion is in the marketing, very creative people selling water vapour (in Spain people now smoke water vapour since the prohibition to smoke in public places).

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#19

I see so many people compare facebook to (late '90s) AOL these days. But the two never had much in common with each other. I think if facebook continues to bring out innovative ways/products/features that connect people with each other it will continue to be successful. Will it one day fade away? Probably. As do most huge dotcoms. But some even stay relevant for well over a decade (ebay, match, expedia, google). Most…

Your profile and buddy list on AOL were probably pretty similar to your Facebook friends. I think they have a lot in common.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#20

I see so many people compare facebook to (late '90s) AOL these days. But the two never had much in common with each other. I think if facebook continues to bring out innovative ways/products/features that connect people with each other it will continue to be successful. Will it one day fade away? Probably. As do most huge dotcoms. But some even stay relevant for well over a decade (ebay, match, expedia, google). Most…

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