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Facebook hype will fade

cnn.com

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Re: Facebook hype will fade

#2
I don't necessarily agree the article but I'd be interested in hearing opinions on the interesting point the author presents near the end of the article: That social networking sites are like physical social spaces that will rise and fall in popularity.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#3
Some people will get a lot of money in shares. The difficult question is when to buy and when to sell. The hype will fade and shares will fall down very quickly but to win in this game you have to determine when it will happen. I don't know when, but I think that the fall down will be the extraordinarily stiff, in one day or two a complete collapse. Wait and see.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#4

I don't necessarily agree the article but I'd be interested in hearing opinions on the interesting point the author presents near the end of the article: That social networking sites are like physical social spaces that will rise and fall in popularity.

As social networks get bigger, you keep adding more and more connections to the point where that set you've created doesn't matter / mean anything anymore.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#5
facebook growth went something like this:

  college --> high school --> young adults --> everyone
Trendy stuff generally follows the same cascade, more or less, where you don't see college students emulating the dress habits of the elderly.

facebook's biggest potential for failure is in not capturing the next generation of young users. The young users pick up some other social network, everyone else follows suit, and facebook withers, slowly starting to resemble an '85 buick.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#6
I really think he doesn't know what he's talking about. Let's look at his qualifications. He's a professor of "Media Studies" at the New School. I think he's going to be taking everything with a lot of lit crit palavering.

Myspace to Facebook is a shallow analogy. If we would like to make an analogy with that analogy it would be like comparing Yahoo and Google. Facebook has far exceeded the market penetration of MySpace. Facebook has one of the best engineering teams around while MySpace attempted to some sort of media company (failing miserably at that). Facebook has a fairly credible revenue stream while we are never sure if MySpace every developed that.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#7
I agree that popularity of social networks is faddish, and that Facebook will follow that rise and fall pattern, however...

I think that an open, distributed social networking protocol is a game changer. If there exists the ability to move between social networks while maintaining your social graph, that makes the way that social networks rise and fall very different than when sites hold your social graph hostage if you try to leave.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#8
post #5

facebook growth went something like this: college --> high school --> young adults --> everyone Trendy stuff generally follows the same cascade, more or less, where you don't see college students emulating the dress habits of the elderly. facebook's biggest potential for failure is in not capturing the next generation of young users. The young users pick up some other social network, everyone else follows suit, and f…

Most of the teenagers I know have Facebook accounts. Facebook might lose the high school class of 2018, but they already have the class of 2014 sewn up.

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#9

I don't necessarily agree the article but I'd be interested in hearing opinions on the interesting point the author presents near the end of the article: That social networking sites are like physical social spaces that will rise and fall in popularity.

My personal experience is exactly that. My parents, a grandparent, nieces, nephews, coworkers, bosses, college friends, and everyone in between are now in my network. My status updates are now a megaphone to everyone I've ever had any relationship with and more frighteningly, anyone I ever will have a relationship with in the future.

This kind of assemblage is perfect for weddings and funerals, and that's it. For daily living, it's just too much. If my Facebook friends all went to a building every day to hang out, I wouldn't go there. And I don't find myself using FB nearly as much now as I once did for this very reason. There's too many things to consider when posting even the simplest thing (will I offend my second aunt, will some future boss not like this political view, what if I run for political office in my 50s and find out I friended someone who ended up doing x, etc., etc.)

Re: Facebook hype will fade

#10

I really think he doesn't know what he's talking about. Let's look at his qualifications. He's a professor of "Media Studies" at the New School. I think he's going to be taking everything with a lot of lit crit palavering. Myspace to Facebook is a shallow analogy. If we would like to make an analogy with that analogy it would be like comparing Yahoo and Google. Facebook has far exceeded the market penetration of MySp…

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