Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major) • Hacker News Board

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#51

Post by jerf » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 2:35 PM UTC

nowarninglabel wrote: post #34

jerf wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Next generation nothing, barring a major and sudden economic turnaround I expect this to happen next year , by which I mean, this next fall school year. Somewhere in March I expect a few little nervous merpings to trickle out about how college applications seem to be a bit down this year but we're talking ourselves into believing they'll pick back up by the start of the school year, and somewhere in June or July for…

The data, at least for California universities, couldn't show you further from the truth. Enrollments are at all time highs (especially in California): http://www.csuohio.edu/news/releases/2010/09/14840.html http://www.today.colostate.edu/story.aspx?id=4432 http://www20.csueastbay.edu/news/2010/08/fall2010-enrollment... Furthermore, you mention an economic turnaround, so you seem to be under the impression that a bad…

I know about that trend. It obviously happens because people think college degrees are valuable, so if they're jobless but can get a degree, why not? I did that myself in 2000 when I graduated with my Comp Sci bachelors degree, looked around, decided the bubble was going to pop anytime now, and said, well, might as well go for the masters. (It did in my first semester.)

If word continues to get around that college degrees aren't generically valuable, and adding my personal assumption that many people either can not just become engineers, and/or will realize in advance they can't just become engineers, that trend will stop and reverse. I probably overestimate the abruptness, but it will happen. Increasing enrollment in college during downtimes isn't an immutable fact of the universe, it emerged from social conditions and beliefs, conditions and beliefs that are changing.

That's not so much proof that I'm wrong as the reason why I'm predicting this in the next year or two.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#52

Post by peterbessman » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 2:37 PM UTC

xlorm wrote: post #37

stretchwithme wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so Bill Gates really would have been a nanny if expectations had been different.

If he grew up expecting to be a nanny then wouldn't it make sense that his chances of actually becoming a nanny would be higher?

Certainly, but by how much? It's not nature vs. nurture -- it's nature and nurture. They both matter, but a priori, it's not clear how much. Further, their relative weights of importance could very well change based on what is being evaluated (e.g., sexual orientation vs. career choice).

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#53

Post by jazzhands » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 2:43 PM UTC

DavidSJ wrote: post #15

Say it with me: Correlation ≠ Causality

I'll add to this. When A and B are correlated, there are only three possibilities regarding causality (which may work in combination):

1. A causes B

2. B causes A

3. C causes both A and B

If we apply this where A is majoring in computer science and B is high earnings, which answers are true? #2 isn't, obviously. #1 is plausible, since perhaps employers are impressed by a computer science degree. But I think #3 is the most significant, where C is a strong desire to be a software professional. Very few people complete a degree in computer science unless they really want to work with software.

We all know English majors, psych majors, and history majors who became high-earning software engineers. Those are the people who had C (the desire to work with software) but not A (computer science degree). C is the thing that caused them to have B.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#54

Post by peterbessman » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 2:58 PM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #2

Folks have told me on HN several times they wanted to hear about some number crunching/SEO work/etc that I did regarding the worth of particular college degrees. I just got the OK from my client to share results, so here you go. Search tool: http://www.onlinedegrees.org/calculator/ Summary article: http://www.onlinedegrees.org/calculator/salary/engineering-d... Short version: get an engineering degree. The client has…

Intuitively, I would expect MD degrees to be very clearly on top -- the expected salaries are easily the highest, and there is relatively more data available on that (look at the merrit hawkins surveys). So when a low-end salary for a doc is $150k -- which, to my knowledge, would be a high-end salary for an engineer -- why is engineering coming out on top?

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#55

Post by barry-cotter » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 3:10 PM UTC

peterbessman wrote: post #54

patio11 wrote: post #2

Folks have told me on HN several times they wanted to hear about some number crunching/SEO work/etc that I did regarding the worth of particular college degrees. I just got the OK from my client to share results, so here you go. Search tool: http://www.onlinedegrees.org/calculator/ Summary article: http://www.onlinedegrees.org/calculator/salary/engineering-d... Short version: get an engineering degree. The client has…

Intuitively, I would expect MD degrees to be very clearly on top -- the expected salaries are easily the highest, and there is relatively more data available on that (look at the merrit hawkins surveys). So when a low-end salary for a doc is $150k -- which, to my knowledge, would be a high-end salary for an engineer -- why is engineering coming out on top?

I believe they're all bachelor degrees.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#56

Post by barry-cotter » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 3:15 PM UTC

thedark wrote: post #3

patio11 wrote: post #2

Folks have told me on HN several times they wanted to hear about some number crunching/SEO work/etc that I did regarding the worth of particular college degrees. I just got the OK from my client to share results, so here you go. Search tool: http://www.onlinedegrees.org/calculator/ Summary article: http://www.onlinedegrees.org/calculator/salary/engineering-d... Short version: get an engineering degree. The client has…

Well, for lack of an apparent better way, person, or place to ask- thoughts on a degree in applied mathematical economics and finance- or the closest equivalent degree in this database?

Do the actuarial exams instead. They cost less, require no degree and are not more difficult than those degrees you mentioned.

For Americans http://www.soa.org/education/exam-req/

For the UK and much of the Commonwealth http://www.actuaries.org.uk/

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#57

Post by jtbigwoo » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 3:22 PM UTC

Things that I actually heard from fellow students when I went to college over a decade ago:

"The most important thing is to get a degree, I don't worry about what major I'm going to choose."

"I want to make the big money so I'm going to major in business and start out as the boss rather than the engineer." (I also heard something similar substituting communications for business.)

"They may not make as much as others, but elementary school teachers can always find work."

I was fortunate to have professors and older friends who were up front about the differing opportunities provided by different fields. Many of my classmates seemed to feel that the world owed them a six figure job in whatever field they chose.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#58

Post by samd » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 3:29 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #32

samd wrote: post #11

If I'm understanding your methods correctly, you only have data for earnings by occupation. So when you say "Computer Science majors earn x." it actually means "People who do the same jobs that computer science majors tend to do earn x." If that's the case then the data is not really actionable unless we also know the probability of getting a job with and without some degree. For example, if computer science majors a…

He acknowledged the flaws in the data collection in the blog posts. Anyway, this particular flaw doesn't quite work itself out the way you describe. If you want to do out the numbers precisely, you'd multiply out the probability that a person enters a particular occupation given their degree by the lifetime earnings of that occupation, and then sum over all possible occupations. So say (made up numbers) a CS major ha…

You're right, I simplified for the example and assumed only one canonical job for each major. However, that doesn't undermine my criticisms. You'd still have to multiply each job by the amount that the degree helps you get that job.

So it's probably pretty hard to become a quant without a degree, so multiply that by some high number like 95%, but it's really easy to become an entrepreneur without a degree, so multiply that by some low number like 20%.

You're also right about the relevant question being "what is a degree worth to me?" That makes prediction even harder because the value of the degree is largely going to depend on the person's opportunity cost of going to school. Consider Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook was the opportunity cost of his getting a degree, which would make the degree's "value" be several billion dollars negative.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#59

Post by genieyclo » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 4:00 PM UTC

jerf wrote: post #10

tjsnyder wrote: post #4

I think we're going to see the next generation of kids taking a much closer look at what they will be studying and the cost/benefits of those studies. College tuition has gone up so much and people are in so much debt now that 2nd generation college students will likely have better advice from their parents. All I ever got my whole life was, "go to school." Luckily I majored in engineering, but I know too many people…

Next generation nothing, barring a major and sudden economic turnaround I expect this to happen next year , by which I mean, this next fall school year. Somewhere in March I expect a few little nervous merpings to trickle out about how college applications seem to be a bit down this year but we're talking ourselves into believing they'll pick back up by the start of the school year, and somewhere in June or July for…

I doubt this will happen so soon; there is a lot of inertia in education, and students are pushed constantly to apply, get ready for applications, etc. The last 2 years of high school were spent taking the SATs or ACTs and prepare for them. Racking up volunteer hours and extra-curriculars is the norm. Lots of time and money invested so far.

I'm curious though, if you can show some proof for your predictions, as I'm in a sort-of-unique situation; I'm applying this week to colleges for the first time (HS senior) and seeing the prohibitive costs is a bit disheartening, yet I'm not sure what others in my peer-group are thinking/doing either.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#60

Post by ig1 » Thu, Jan 06, 2011, 4:12 PM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #2

Folks have told me on HN several times they wanted to hear about some number crunching/SEO work/etc that I did regarding the worth of particular college degrees. I just got the OK from my client to share results, so here you go. Search tool: http://www.onlinedegrees.org/calculator/ Summary article: http://www.onlinedegrees.org/calculator/salary/engineering-d... Short version: get an engineering degree. The client has…

One important factor that you missed is that where you study is also hugely important. Here's a graph of some similar data from the UK:

http://i26.tinypic.com/8ywawn.png

(Data based upon surveying graduates 3.5 years after they left uni)