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Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

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Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#31

Post by nowarninglabel »

patio11 wrote: post #20
samd wrote: post #11

If I'm understanding your methods correctly, you only have data for earnings by occupation. So when you say "Computer Science majors earn x." it actually means "People who do the same jobs that computer science majors tend to do earn x." If that's the case then the data is not really actionable unless we also know the probability of getting a job with and without some degree. For example, if computer science majors a…

I think this data is a lot more accurate and actionable than "All degrees are equally valuable, honey", which is the advice I'm most concerned with competing with.

I have to agree with the parent poster, especially given that I have a degree in International Relations but earn a high 'computer science degree' salary since I work in the field. Anecdotally, quite a few coworkers over the years at different positions have also revealed that their degrees are not in the field, but since, like me, they had the skills in it and the experience, they chose to do that kind of work, despite the degree being in a different subject.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#32

Post by nostrademons »

samd wrote: post #11

If I'm understanding your methods correctly, you only have data for earnings by occupation. So when you say "Computer Science majors earn x." it actually means "People who do the same jobs that computer science majors tend to do earn x." If that's the case then the data is not really actionable unless we also know the probability of getting a job with and without some degree. For example, if computer science majors a…

He acknowledged the flaws in the data collection in the blog posts.

Anyway, this particular flaw doesn't quite work itself out the way you describe. If you want to do out the numbers precisely, you'd multiply out the probability that a person enters a particular occupation given their degree by the lifetime earnings of that occupation, and then sum over all possible occupations.

So say (made up numbers) a CS major has an 80% chance of being a computer programmer ($1.5M), a 10% chance of being a quant ($5M), a 5% chance of being a successful entrepreneur ($20M), and a 5% chance of being a housewife ($0). The expected value of the degree would be .8 * 1.5M + .1 * 5M + .05 * 20M + 0.

Then to find the baseline you'd do the same for lifetime earnings and occupation probabilities of someone who didn't go to college. If they had a 10% chance of being a computer programmer, a 30% chance of being a barrista ($500k), a 40% chance of being a construction worker ($800k), and a 20% chance of being a househusband, that'd be .1 * 1.5M + .3 * 500 + .4 * 800 + 0. Multiply out and subtract to find the value of the degree.

Remember that statistics is about making statements about groups, not statements about any particular individual. That illustrates another pitfall of the data: the question a prospective student really wants answered is "how much will the degree be worth to me". There's at least one study out there that suggests the answer is "zero": all the difference in lifetime earnings is due to correlation and not causation. People succeed because of inborn traits like intelligence, perseverance, and the ability to delay gratitude, all of which also result in someone being able to get into an elite college and pick a challenging major. But controlling for that effect opens up a whole other can of worms, one that you could bill your client another few thousand for writing about. ;-)

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#33

Post by nowarninglabel »

patio11 wrote: post #20
samd wrote: post #11

If I'm understanding your methods correctly, you only have data for earnings by occupation. So when you say "Computer Science majors earn x." it actually means "People who do the same jobs that computer science majors tend to do earn x." If that's the case then the data is not really actionable unless we also know the probability of getting a job with and without some degree. For example, if computer science majors a…

I think this data is a lot more accurate and actionable than "All degrees are equally valuable, honey", which is the advice I'm most concerned with competing with.

I work for a university, and I don't think I have ever heard a faculty or staff member say "All degrees are equally valuable", a google for such only shows 6 results. All with the word not in front. Even doing more liberal searches produces the same results, pretty much every single article says no. Where is the advice you are supposedly getting? Is it coming from an authoratative source? You could really use a citation.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#34

Post by nowarninglabel »

jerf wrote: post #10
tjsnyder wrote: post #4

I think we're going to see the next generation of kids taking a much closer look at what they will be studying and the cost/benefits of those studies. College tuition has gone up so much and people are in so much debt now that 2nd generation college students will likely have better advice from their parents. All I ever got my whole life was, "go to school." Luckily I majored in engineering, but I know too many people…

Next generation nothing, barring a major and sudden economic turnaround I expect this to happen next year , by which I mean, this next fall school year. Somewhere in March I expect a few little nervous merpings to trickle out about how college applications seem to be a bit down this year but we're talking ourselves into believing they'll pick back up by the start of the school year, and somewhere in June or July for…

The data, at least for California universities, couldn't show you further from the truth. Enrollments are at all time highs (especially in California): http://www.csuohio.edu/news/releases/2010/09/14840.html http://www.today.colostate.edu/story.aspx?id=4432 http://www20.csueastbay.edu/news/2010/08/fall2010-enrollment...

Furthermore, you mention an economic turnaround, so you seem to be under the impression that a bad economy means less enrollments/applications. It is actually the inverse: http://www.usnews.com/articles/education/best-graduate-schoo... Wish I had the graph from my graduate economics course for this, it showed just how much an inverse the relationship is.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#35

Post by tsotha »

steve-howard wrote: post #26
tjsnyder wrote: post #4

I think we're going to see the next generation of kids taking a much closer look at what they will be studying and the cost/benefits of those studies. College tuition has gone up so much and people are in so much debt now that 2nd generation college students will likely have better advice from their parents. All I ever got my whole life was, "go to school." Luckily I majored in engineering, but I know too many people…

UChicago gives a speech every year entitled "The Aims of Education" to its freshman class. One quote from a while ago: "There are no aims of education. The aim is education. If -- and only if -- you seek it... education will find you." From what I know of my UChicago friends, they really downplay majors and emphasize their liberal-arts core. In other words, it seems that education is generally a pursuit for personal…

>In other words, it seems that education is generally a pursuit for personal enrichment, unless you happen to love whatever field will make you money (I thank my lucky stars that I'm in computer science and my internships are quite well paid; my friends in other disciplines like journalism are not so lucky).

Personal enrichment is fine as long as you don't go into debt. Going to college to learn a valuable skill and taking on debt to do it is also okay, since you'll be able to retire your debt with your valuable skill.

But people have been screwing themselves by taking on heavy debt loads and then going the personal enrichment route. It's hard to believe they realize what they're giving up - many of these folks will still be paying off debts into their 40s.

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#36

Post by nowarninglabel »

It's really starting to anger me that blogs posts such as this don't do a better job of equating the differences between the for-profit and non-profit universities. The post mentions the value of a in-state degree almost as an aside. This should be way more up front about the fact that, in the U.S. alone:

>For-profit colleges enroll 12 percent of U.S. undergraduates

Only 12%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-29/plunge-of-for-profi...

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#37

Post by xlorm »

stretchwithme wrote: post #24
xlorm wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps we are hard-wired to enjoy certain types of work. I would guess it has more to do with expectations.

so Bill Gates really would have been a nanny if expectations had been different.

If he grew up expecting to be a nanny then wouldn't it make sense that his chances of actually becoming a nanny would be higher?

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#38

Post by hessenwolf »

sp4rki wrote: post #30
cantbecool wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've watched that particular Frontline special before, and I must say, as a current college undergrad, it is eyeopening. Although, I must applaud the University of Phoenix investor, Michael K. Clifford. He is at least doing some form of philanthropy with all the money he's is making from for profit universities. I wish I had a mentor of some sort as a teenager, who would have convinced me to attend a public instituti…

I could have received a better education from my local public library. - How'd you like them apples? Sorry couldn't resist some good will punning. Anyways, I've always said (even when I was in high-school) that I'd just get a bachelors degree from the most reputable University I can afford without going into debt. These days I'm still missing one year of a Financial Engineering degree, but I'm earning almost twice (a…

And as a vision of the future, Germans often don't leave university until after 30...

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#39

Post by qq66 »

jacques_chester wrote: post #5

I know it's a cliché to complain about this, but the article is a bit Amerocentric (is that a word? It is now!). The Australian Government, for example, gathers a very large pool of statistics from the publicly funded universities, down to the level of having students grade their professors and courses.

The word you're looking for does exist: "Americentric."

Re: Quantifying The Value Of A College Degree (By Major)

#40

Post by FluidDjango »

A very interesting use of data. But there's something strange.

1) Looking a Psychology (my major) the "life time value" comes out exactly same ($794,...) whether I choose "doctorate" "bachelor" or "associate" degree. And... the results page does not indicate for which degree its data apply.

2) What does change depending on the degree for which I request data... is the other fields presented for comparison.

3) Requesting data on "doctorate / psychology" compares results for degrees in Real Estate and Cosmetology. Are there really enough people with doctorates in those fields to compute reliable stats? [Note that searching for "doctorate / real estate" does show numbers (albeit low) for Real Estate.

If allowed by the hiring company, can you explain what's going on better than the results pages does?

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