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The Population Bust

foreignaffairs.com

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Re: The Population Bust

#21

Post by esarbe »

toasterlovin wrote: post #16
dmm wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Birth rates are below replacement everywhere in the developed world and China and most other places except the middle east and africa. There is no need for forced sterilization or whatever you were alluding to.

There will be at some point though. Fertility is moderately heritable.

Even if it is; the availability of pretty much perfect contraceptives negates that to a large degree. The use of contraceptives is cultural, not biological.

So we'll hit a replacement problem long before natural selection has time to catch up. The replacement issue has already real implications, this will become much more obvious in the course of the next 30 years.

Any relevant change on the population size the propensity for fertility can have; it will take (three, four, five , ...) generations to manifest.

Re: The Population Bust

#23

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

We should bring them in and turn them American while we still have the numbers and dynamism to do so.

Which implies American levels of consumption and environmental damage.

Re: The Population Bust

#24

Post by ttugrq »

toasterlovin wrote: post #17
Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

I’d prefer to reserve as much of the country for my own descendants as possible, thanks. That’s what this country is: territory that our ancestors have bestowed upon us so we can have a place to live. We should do the same for our descendants, instead of just giving it away to whoever wants it. The rest of the humans on this planet already have their own countries.

Today's immigrants are the future other grandparents of your future grandchildren, or great grandparents of great grandchildren. If you doubt it, look a few generations back in your family tree.

Re: The Population Bust

#25

Post by ttugrq »

mandelbrotwurst wrote: post #6
Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

Why do you want there to be more Americans? Is there some advantage to more people living in the geographical region? Are you hoping that it will allow certain aspects of the culture to spread / persist? If the latter, would it be as good to cultivate those things at home and allow them to spread on their own merit? Or do you prefer for more people to exist under the national banner for its own sake?

I'm an American and I want there to be enough nurses and orderlies in American nursing homes when the time comes that I need them.

Re: The Population Bust

#26

Post by toasterlovin »

ttugrq wrote: post #24
toasterlovin wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d prefer to reserve as much of the country for my own descendants as possible, thanks. That’s what this country is: territory that our ancestors have bestowed upon us so we can have a place to live. We should do the same for our descendants, instead of just giving it away to whoever wants it. The rest of the humans on this planet already have their own countries.

Today's immigrants are the future other grandparents of your future grandchildren, or great grandparents of great grandchildren. If you doubt it, look a few generations back in your family tree.

Nobody needs immigrants to have ancestors for their descendants. However you slice it, immigration increases competition for the future citizens of this country.

Re: The Population Bust

#27

Post by toasterlovin »

esarbe wrote: post #21
toasterlovin wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be at some point though. Fertility is moderately heritable.

Even if it is; the availability of pretty much perfect contraceptives negates that to a large degree. The use of contraceptives is cultural, not biological. So we'll hit a replacement problem long before natural selection has time to catch up. The replacement issue has already real implications, this will become much more obvious in the course of the next 30 years. Any relevant change on the population size the prope…

> Even if it is; the availability of pretty much perfect contraceptives negates that to a large degree.

No it doesn’t. My wife an I both wanted to have large families, even when we were children. How will contraceptives affect people’s basic motivations and life goals?

> Any relevant change on the population size the propensity for fertility can have; it will take (three, four, five , ...) generations to manifest.

Five generations is only 100-150 years. And anyway, we have a precedent for what happens when there is significant population reduction: the Black Death. Life got way better for the vast majority of people who survived that event. So much so that it ended feudalism in most of Europe. The only problem is finding pensions. Oh well. It’s incredibly immoral to yoke our descendants with the responsibility of funding an extended retirement for us.

Re: The Population Bust

#28

Post by toasterlovin »

esarbe wrote: post #22
toasterlovin wrote: post #18

Fertility is heritable. This, too, shall pass.

See my answer above; before natural selection kicks in and makes the population rebound, we'll already have hit the replacement problem.

See mine as well. Reduced population is not a problem. Life is easier, not harder, when there is less competition for resources. Our pension systems will collapse, though. People will adapt; pensions have not existed for most of human history.

Re: The Population Bust

#29

Post by 0wis »

toasterlovin wrote: post #17
Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

I’d prefer to reserve as much of the country for my own descendants as possible, thanks. That’s what this country is: territory that our ancestors have bestowed upon us so we can have a place to live. We should do the same for our descendants, instead of just giving it away to whoever wants it. The rest of the humans on this planet already have their own countries.

I’d prefer to reserve as much of the planet to my own descendants. Immigrants may use more some infrastructure of your country but overpopulation surely use more the planet. By allowing immigration, you increase chances for immigrants to be more educated and therefore reduce the overall birth rate.
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