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The Population Bust

foreignaffairs.com

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Re: The Population Bust

#11

Post by Causality1 »

mandelbrotwurst wrote: post #6
Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

Why do you want there to be more Americans? Is there some advantage to more people living in the geographical region? Are you hoping that it will allow certain aspects of the culture to spread / persist? If the latter, would it be as good to cultivate those things at home and allow them to spread on their own merit? Or do you prefer for more people to exist under the national banner for its own sake?

All of the above. More Americans puts us in a better position to compete against China and India, and we can't expect our technological superiority to give us an edge forever. My view is of course biased, but I sincerely believe the world would be a crueler place were Chinese culture and military power to replace American cultural popularity and military power.

Re: The Population Bust

#12

Post by Causality1 »

0xfaded wrote: post #9
Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

I'm Australian, have lived in the US, and now live in Denmark. I'm also pro immigration, both for skilled and unskilled workers. However Non-Western (as defined by the Danish Ministry of Statistics) has been financially costly for the welfare state, and the assumption that unskilled immigrant descendents will (as a whole) outperform their parents has not been realized. There's blame on both sides. Denmark doesn't do…

True, but I was primarily thinking of immigration from Western nations like Mexico and even Europe. It's surprisingly hard for, say, a British person to move permanently to the US. I'd like to see that changed.

Re: The Population Bust

#13

Post by malandrew »

Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

I'm strongly pro skilled immigration. Automation is going to leave a lot of unskilled people unemployed and that will lead to civil unrest.

Re: The Population Bust

#14

Post by dmm »

scanny wrote: post #10
pascalxus wrote: post #4

Relying on a larger and larger population to keep supporting endless growth is not sustainable. I know this is unpopular, but: We need to find a way to sustainably live on this planet with a reasonably sized population. People keep talking about how the next generation needs to support all the debt and extravagances of the past generations but this unethical. the next generation was born without first being asked whe…

It comes down to: Are people going to responsibly manage their family sizes at a family scale; if not then either we continue as is, or start going down a dark path. A sticking point also seems to be: Are people who are having lots of children the same people who are consuming middle-income+ levels of resources?

Birth rates are below replacement everywhere in the developed world and China and most other places except the middle east and africa. There is no need for forced sterilization or whatever you were alluding to.

Re: The Population Bust

#15

Post by em500 »

Causality1 wrote: post #12
0xfaded wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm Australian, have lived in the US, and now live in Denmark. I'm also pro immigration, both for skilled and unskilled workers. However Non-Western (as defined by the Danish Ministry of Statistics) has been financially costly for the welfare state, and the assumption that unskilled immigrant descendents will (as a whole) outperform their parents has not been realized. There's blame on both sides. Denmark doesn't do…

True, but I was primarily thinking of immigration from Western nations like Mexico and even Europe. It's surprisingly hard for, say, a British person to move permanently to the US. I'd like to see that changed.

Every Western nation has sub-replacement fertility rate now. Mexico is still slightly above, but will likely go below in the coming decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_Fertility_Rate,_195...

Re: The Population Bust

#16

Post by toasterlovin »

dmm wrote: post #14
scanny wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It comes down to: Are people going to responsibly manage their family sizes at a family scale; if not then either we continue as is, or start going down a dark path. A sticking point also seems to be: Are people who are having lots of children the same people who are consuming middle-income+ levels of resources?

Birth rates are below replacement everywhere in the developed world and China and most other places except the middle east and africa. There is no need for forced sterilization or whatever you were alluding to.

There will be at some point though. Fertility is moderately heritable.

Re: The Population Bust

#17

Post by toasterlovin »

Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

I’d prefer to reserve as much of the country for my own descendants as possible, thanks. That’s what this country is: territory that our ancestors have bestowed upon us so we can have a place to live. We should do the same for our descendants, instead of just giving it away to whoever wants it. The rest of the humans on this planet already have their own countries.

Re: The Population Bust

#19

Post by Nyandalized »

Aperocky wrote: post #3

Soon it won't matter what the population is, automation will sweep through all industries, what you see today in automation is what people 30 years ago see in computers - slow, cumbersome, expensive. That's going to change.

Computers are part of automation, just like chainsaws. It's not a new phenomena. It's been sweeping through all industries the whole time.

The thing is, efficiency unveils new possibilities, and possibilities induce demand, consumption. We are much more efficient than 10 years ago, but also consume at a much faster pace.

Re: The Population Bust

#20

Post by Nyandalized »

Causality1 wrote: post #2

This phenomena is why I'm strongly pro-immigration. Speaking as an American, I want there to be more Americans. We're not making them ourselves so we need to import. The more we import now, the better since the current population is both younger and more numerous than it will be in a few decades when we'd actually need the imported population. Doing it now means the Americanization of the immigrants will be more comp…

Why are you not making them yourselves? If it's because of economics, it clearly indicates unsustainable growth. The only thing immigration would support is below-livable wages.
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