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Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

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Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#331
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was the theory during the Clinton administration and, to be blunt, that theory has been wrong. The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline. Please, please do not take a free China for granted. Do not think that change — that democracy and freedom — is…

Thing is that China is nearing point where it has to let creative destruction happen to grow more and it is very hard to achieve under current model.

When "creative destruction" is used as a euphemism for change, it encourages us to forget that "destructive destruction" is always a potential outcome.

See: the Great Leap Forward

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#332
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not sure where the 8 millions is from, the number of protesters are much less. Would you want to start a world war over HK?

War no, confrontation yes.

"Drop a single rocket on Beijing" is "war", not just "confrontation".

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#333
post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like how this fake/troll account accuses its parent comment of being a fake when called out. It’s the proverbial ‘no u’. I can’t help but read this as China about to do some terrible things to Hong Kong and pre emptively launching their online troll army to try and whitewash what’s about to go down.

Please don't break the site guidelines yourself, regardless of how badly other commenters are behaving. It's egregiously against the rules to post like this here. Once users start slinging these wild accusations at each other, HN is dead and we might as well shut it down. If you're really concerned about this, you should have emailed us at hn@ycombinator.com as the guidelines ask. If you're really concerned about the…

Fair, my apologies. Thank you for the considered reply.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#334
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has a different culture. One reason that western people having protesting culture because of historically authoritarians are less powerful and less cruel than the eastern ones. Take the 'nine familial exterminations'[0] as an example. It will most likely become a totally different cyberpunk society, with modern cities and massive surveillance coexist, instead of being another US.

While I agree with your cultural differences conclusion, there are many examples of cruel authoritarians with absolute power in the history of almost all nations in at least most of Europe. Shared sentencing was common in feudal times though I do not know if capital punishment was among them. There are many examples in all regions of the world with respect to authoritarian cruelty and they are not solely an Asian thi…

I just found I forgot to attach the link for Nine_familial_exterminations[0] in the original reply.

Shared sentencing was common, but I believe there's nuance between European feudal kingdoms and eastern empires.

In Machiavelli's Price, he compared the French kingdom and the Ottoman empire. The former was based on the traditional feudal model - Nobels are powerful. And the latter was based on province model, there are officers but they don't own things, and can be replaced by the Sultan or the Emporer without any problems.

I found for empires like China, Ottoman, people usually respect authoritarian more. My guess people might fear their local lords because they are cruel, but that's not consistent for every place and every decade in Europe because it's too divided. But for China, this continuously goes on for thousands of years.

PS: I believe the shared sentencing is much more important than other cruel sentencings on this topic. Because it's not because it affects the criminal by his sense of responsibility for families. But instead, it's because other family members will first stop him, if they failed to stop him they will report directly.

When I was a kid every time I tried to say something about politics everyone else's response was "stop that, don't ask for trouble".

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_familial_exterminations

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#335
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much money did private enterprise make from the Arab Spring? Hundred billion or so? To pretend like it was a moral issue is insane. Most people don't care in the slightest in democratic countries. Virtually every country involved in sending troops couldn't point to it on a map nor talk about the region with any sort of knowledge. We walked in and replaced Hussein with ISIS. It will go down as 21st century Vietnam…

> China has nukes. Absolutely nothing will happen China has shown (again) in their treatment of Hong Kong that they don't care about past agreements. The least that anyone can do, even in the presence of nukes, is to get their business out of China, and that is already happening to some degree. And of course be welcoming to people who choose to emigrate from Hong Kong.

> China has shown (again) in their treatment of Hong Kong that they don't care about past agreements.

Every nation that feels it is powerful enough reneges on past agreements when it's strategic to do so: Russia[1], Great Britain[2], and even the current US admin which is set on rolling back every agreement that Obama might have been involved with, chief among them the Iran nuclear deal (JCPA).

Realpolitik-wise; any country with a permanent seat on the US security council can do as they please.

1. nuclear agreement with US

2. disavowed multiple agreements with former-colonies, especially under Tony Blair whose government didn't put much weight on being bound by the predecessor conservative government

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One reason that western people having protesting culture because of historically authoritarians are less powerful and less cruel than the eastern ones. I think western people are just more complacent, and so protests are viewed as fundamentally non threatening by authority figures. In China, however, the people are much less complacent and so authority figures fear more widespread uprising. In the US, we are taught…

This demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of Western culture. You make progress in the West by winning over your naysayers by memetic warfare, and ideally by grassroots sentiment/political engineering. In recent decades, there have been issues with the system as a whole that have made it difficult for the system to self-correct. Namely, the obsession with never revisiting laws on the books to simplify the act…

> This demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of Western culture.

I appreciate the thoughtful response. I'll try to rebut in case you can help clarify things for me further.

> You make progress in the West by winning over your naysayers by memetic warfare, and ideally by grassroots sentiment/political engineering.

I think this is another way of saying that leaders do not have absolute power and there must be some level of consent of the governed behind what the leaders do.

The word progress entails views that could be described as "politically progressive". While I agree that what you describe (grassroots efforts, awareness, shifts in public opinion) have characterized progressive movements in the US, I think those represent only a subset of the relevant political trends to consider in our analysis, such as right wing movements that have been remarkably retrogressive.

> In recent decades, there have been issues with the system as a whole that have made it difficult for the system to self-correct. Namely, the obsession with never revisiting laws on the books to simplify the act of legislating, the dismantling of the legislative branch as the ultimate source of law through delegation to the Executive branch and dissolution of vital apparatuses like the Office of Technological Assessment, and overreliance on an overloaded Judiciary as a relief valve for legislation largely driven by donor/special interest organizations.

I would characterize the items you mention as (broadly) institutionalized corruption. As powerful interests obtain greater advantage, they allow the system to evolve in ways that protects their power. There has not been any significant public movement to alter the course of this trend.

> Resistance in the United States, and the West in general was never intended to be "buy the vote" but rather the end result of pushes to modify public sentiment through bottom up pressure, with laws being passed at the lowest level possible such that each State was free to run itself as it saw fit with minimal undue influence from other State, with a Federal body of jurisdiction to mediate cross-State issues.

This was indeed the intent at the outset, but we have seen a massive growth in the size and reach of the Federal government, both in terms of size/scope of the government itself and also in terms of the percentage of lobbying dollars spent at the Federal level. For lobbying interests, it's easier/cheaper to focus on one target than 50.

> At no point was the U.S. Government ever expected or desired to be able to control the populace. That was specifically avoided and straight up poisoned through various Constitutional Amendments, as well as quite elegantly rejected in the Declaration of Independence

We have seen in recent decades a substantial weakening of the bill of rights, which is, to your point, the most concrete embodiment of the initial importance of protecting the people from government:

1st amendment: We've seen the past several administrations conduct a war on whistleblowers, as well as prosecute journalists under the espionage act.

2nd amendment: Many Americans support the total repeal of this one.

4th amendment: Immigration oriented laws remove 4th amendment protections against unlawful search and seizure within 100 miles of the US border. 80% of the US population lives within 100 miles of a US border.

5th amendment: Courts have been convicting child pornographers in ways that are troubling for broader 5th amendment protections against self incrimination.

The notable thing here is not that the protections against government have been reduced, it's that they have been reduced and nobody cares.

> The Government is there to serve the populace. Not suppress, dominate, or terrorize them.

What government has in its constitution the idea that it would do anything else?

> Any contest of wills in the States is fundamentally a difference of opinion between people; not a challenge to the superiority of the State.

This is only due to the selective focus on in-fighting between political groups, such as the abortion debate. I'd argue that the state should not have been allowed to get away with the following abuses of authoritarian power (and big budget, state actor scale PR efforts):

- Sloppy accounting of the GSEs that led to the financial crisis in 2008

- Dishonest accounting of social welfare systems and their sustainability (Social Security, Medicare)

- Dishonest leaks of intelligence information (or deliberate leaks of fake info (Hersch)) leading to the costly Iraq war, along with dishonest cost projections.

- Inappropriate classification of information about the Iraq and Afghan wars (Wikileaks)

- The attacks on press freedom mentioned above

- The attacks on urban black populations that occurred during the 1970s (Chicago) and were aided by Federal law enforcement.

- The negligent handling of water pollution (Flint) which is actually happening in many US cities. Lead and contamination tests are often performed improperly, leading people to think their water is clean.

The above are predominantly akin to theft, but some are graft and some are obstruction to prevent accountability. Generally speaking, all would be highly criminal if done by a private firm.

That Americans do not mind these things illustrates that there is total compliance with authoritarian excesses and criminal behavior. The distraction from these issues and focus on partisan tit for tat issues is generally just what it looks like when the population is complacent about its authoritarian overlords.

I'd be curious to read your responses. I think we agree on the conceptual (idealistic) objectives of the US form of government, and we agree that the current instantiation has problems. My take is that we can measure authoritarianism by looking at how much it is challenged by the democratic process... more authoritarian means there will be fewer challenges, which is our status quo in the US.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#337
post #81

As incomes rise in China people will demand other things from the government than food, shelter and a comfortable middle class life. Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous. Whatever they do in Hong Kong now will not stop from things happening all over China at a given point.

> Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous. No. HK people are not enjoying enough middle-class comfort and prosperity. Precisely, HK's income inequality is even worse than mainland China (0.537 vs. 0.467). And because HK has historically been more liberal, it's a subject of many rich and powerful, especially the demand from mainland peo…

> HK people are not enjoying enough middle-class comfort and prosperity.

> Precisely, HK's income inequality is even worse than mainland China

I'm not claiming you are wrong but inequality may not be tied to prosperity directly.

For example, I have £10,000,000 and all the people on my street only have £1000,000. That's high inequality.

Someone in rural china has RMB 2,000, the rest of the village has RMB 1,000

Much less inequality but I'd prefer the former to the latter.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arab Spring started in late 2010, if I'm not wrong.

I consider it one of the first major climate crisis shifts, after large record heat year in 2010 and drought in the region. Climate refugees were forced into cities and in closer proximity flaming sectarian and cultural divides. These tensions were easily absconded upon by those who wanted to make something better for their particular in group.

Remember that the Arab spring was sparked off not by a climate refugee, but rather a street salesman, who publicly committed suicide via self-isolation after being brutalized by Tunisian police. Don't get me wrong, I think you're actually right, but there are many, many other factors involved.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#339
post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't break the site guidelines yourself, regardless of how badly other commenters are behaving. It's egregiously against the rules to post like this here. Once users start slinging these wild accusations at each other, HN is dead and we might as well shut it down. If you're really concerned about this, you should have emailed us at hn@ycombinator.com as the guidelines ask. If you're really concerned about the…

Fair, my apologies. Thank you for the considered reply.

Appreciated!

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#340
post #231

West wasn't ready to die for Danzig in 1939 and isn't ready to die for Hong-Kong in 2019. The result could be similar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Die_for_Danzig%3F

The West, eternally blamed - by a specific part of the political spectrum - for intervening in foreign matters and for not intervening in foreign matters.
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