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GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

wsj.com

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Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#221

Post by woodandsteel »

clouddrover wrote: post #211
checktheorder wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. I think a case could be made for us already being at that point, if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in. ICE vehicles are obscenely mechanically complex. That complexity inevitably leads to lots of repair bills over an ICE vehicle's l…

> if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range. The batteries for EVs need to get cheaper and more durable for the second-hand EV car market to be competitive with the second-…

>EVs lose out here because of battery degradation.

You're absolutely correct. That's why every Tesla with over 100,00 miles on it has been sent to the junkyard because it no longer takes a charge.

Oh, and one consequence of rapidly falling battery prices is that if at some point your battery capacity eventually does get too low, you can buy a replacement at a small fraction of what the original cost.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#222

Post by woodandsteel »

checktheorder wrote: post #195
gwbas1c wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. The biggest cost of an electric car is the battery; and the cost of batteries is dropping very fast. Everything else is significantly cheaper in an electric vehicle except for the cost of the battery. (Tesla used to say there's a "Moore's Law" of battery…

>You're missing the point: There's basically a point sometime in the 2020s when an electric vehicle becomes cheaper than a gas car. We just don't know that date yet. I think a case could be made for us already being at that point, if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in. ICE vehicles are obscenely mechanically complex. That complexity inevitably leads to lots of repair bills over an ICE vehicle's l…

You're right for total cost of ownership. But in a few years sticker price will be equal, and then the market is going to swing to EV's.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#223

Post by Tagbert »

lann wrote: post #136
lukifer wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the reasons I love the Volt so much is that it still drops much of the complexity of ICE cars, since the drivetrain is fully electric. It's basically just a low-range EV with a backup gas generator bolted on.

Uhh...no: http://gmauthority.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Volte... Source: http://gmauthority.com/blog/2015/02/secrets-of-the-2016-chev...

Under normal load and conditions the Volts are both primarily serial hybrids. There are only a few specialized situations where they include the direct engine connection to optimize output.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#224

Post by Tagbert »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #72

50 years from now we'll look back on hybrids as a brief transition phase in the history of automobiles. They're much more complicated than ICE cars and vastly more complicated than electric cars. Once good enough, cheap enough batteries happen (i.e. now) there's no reason for hybrids to exist.

In practice the added complexity of hybrids does not make them less reliable than ICE vehicles. They spend of lot of time on EV mode. Plugin hybrid only use the gasoline engine rarely. When the gas engine does run, it does so at an optimized pace that doesn’t stress the engine as much.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#225

Post by clouddrover »

woodandsteel wrote: post #221
clouddrover wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if the total lifetime cost of car ownership is factored in EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You can quite happily buy a 10 year old ICE car and get good reliability at a good price. Trying to do the same with an EV just gets you a car with a worn out battery and low range. The batteries for EVs need to get cheaper and more durable for the second-hand EV car market to be competitive with the second-…

>EVs lose out here because of battery degradation. You're absolutely correct. That's why every Tesla with over 100,00 miles on it has been sent to the junkyard because it no longer takes a charge. Oh, and one consequence of rapidly falling battery prices is that if at some point your battery capacity eventually does get too low, you can buy a replacement at a small fraction of what the original cost.

> you can buy a replacement at a small fraction of what the original cost.

For how much? If your future cheap battery costs $100 per kilowatt hour at the pack level, you're spending $8,000 for an 80 kilowatt hour battery. That's a large small fraction.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#226

Post by clouddrover »

xedeon wrote: post #220
clouddrover wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The years aren't on it yet. Batteries degrade with use and with time. That car is only 3 years old. Tesla warrants their batteries at 70% capacity for 8 years for the Model 3. The Model S and X have an 8 year warranty with no capacity guarantee: https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty So that's about what you should expect from a Tesla battery.

The time factor has already been solved by the battery management system (BMS) as it keeps the pack at an ideal temperature to vastly prolong the life. Battery chemistry will not change much over time as long as it does not get too hot/cold. In addition, current data indicates that for the first 50,000 miles (100,000 km), most Tesla battery packs will lose about 5% of their capacity, but after the 50,000-mile mark, t…

Everyone's got anecdotes. Here's one.

3% degradation after 35k KMs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avGUGFrLrVc

Then 8% degradation 1 year later at 100k KMs and the car now has a reduced rate of charge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loulJ3ResDg

So why would I buy a 10 year old Tesla? If it requires a new battery I'd be better off just buying a different or newer car.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#228

Post by jillesvangurp »

Not unexpected given the trends in the EV market (dropping battery prices, increasing ranges, faster charging times, massive growth in charging infrastructure, etc.). A VW executive made some interesting comments about this recently: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/vw-exec-says-tipping-...

Basically they are talking about a tipping point where BEVs are flat out cheaper and more cost effective for everyone. They are not talking about decades but the next few years. Right now it's a luxury thing for early adopters. A few years from now, it will be the obvious cost effective choice across all price rangers and vehicle types.

The WSJ article seems to suggest that battery vehicles are not profitable currently. I'd argue that's probably not true. At least Tesla is apparently enjoying pretty decent margins on their cars; even before you consider tax advantages.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#229

Post by gambiting »

esotericn wrote: post #199
gambiting wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's as if everyone if forgetting that tonnes of people live in houses without designated parking. I have friends who'd love a fully electric vehicle but they live in a terraced house without a driveway so there is just no way to charge it. But a hybrid that achieves good fuel economy without needing to be plugged in makes a lot of sense instead.

Er. About 7 years ago, EV charging points essentially did not exist. Right now we have rapid chargers that allow you to drive across Western Europe with 30 minute stops. In about another 7 years the chargers will be a complete non issue. Certainly in a place like the UK that has very few real "rural" areas. It may be the case that for that short period it made sense to produce hybrids. We'll still look back on it as…

I think there is a massive difference between long-range commute and just living in a city and needing a place to charge. Yes, if I wanted to drive down from Newcastle to London, or hop on the ferry to Amsterdam and drive down to Berlin, absolutely no problem - there is enough charging points along motorways that you will get pretty much anywhere without any issues.

But if you live in Newcastle, say in Jesmond, fancy terraced house with no private parking space - where are you going to charge your car? In one of the 2 public spaces that are nearby? Drive few miles out to a quick charger near the motorway? At one of the public car parks where the charging time is limited? Like, I can't see any way to do that that wouldn't be a massive inconvenience every few days.

Re: GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

#230

Post by llampx »

simonebrunozzi wrote: post #127
yardie wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> both companies produced these as regulatory compliance vehicles. At one point I was completely fascinated with the Fiat 500e. Here was an electric car that was stylish, quirky, and could be had on the used market at a great price. But as I got further into it I realized that FCA hated producing this car. Its only reason to exist is to allow them to produce more pollutant vehicles as a regulatory balance. And if it…

Sergio Marchionne, FCA's CEO until he passed away a few months ago, used to say that the company would lose approx. $6,000 for every Fiat 500e sold, but that they had to sell some of these anyway.

Better than paying Tesla for each gas or diesel-powered Fiat sold.
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