Google Will Become an AI Company

Post by tgflynn » Mon, Jan 03, 2011, 11:22 PM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #71

tgflynn wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The time-frame for auto driving cars is actually more difficult to predict than that for general adaptive robotics because of the regulatory and social issues involved. I'm sure it will be decades not centuries though. My prediction is that robotic servants will be common place in homes by the 2020's and that almost all manual occupations will be replaced with automation during that decade. I have no idea how society…

> almost all manual occupations will be replaced with automation during that decade Unions will just go quietly into the night?

Post by jarek » Mon, Jan 03, 2011, 11:27 PM UTC

philwelch wrote: post #64

poet wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's CEO doesn't think pilotless planes are possible by 2030: http://www.longbets.org/4 . Part of his reasoning: the FAA changes so slowly that if this were even all possible, the adoption and certification would all take at least 50 years. I don't see why the same wouldn't be true (perhaps on a smaller scale) for the auto industry.

Current airliners are exactly as driverless as Google's cars: they have an autopilot that does virtually all of the flying, with one or two human pilots set to take over in case they have to, just as the driverless cars Google is developing have a human driver set to take over in case they have to. (That's what makes them compatible with CA state law, as Google has been field testing their driverless cars for some ti…

Post by ghaff » Mon, Jan 03, 2011, 11:40 PM UTC

lars512 wrote: post #104

mquander wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a little strange, because another trend directly competing with automatic cars is telecommunications. If it were possible and culturally acceptable for all white-collar workers to telecommute full-time, all of a sudden there would be half as many cars on the streets. If there were efficient, cost-effective, and prompt delivery systems for local goods like groceries, there would be half as many again. It's concei…

Offices are cheaper per person to run and provision than individual dwellings due to the extra density of workers, so this trend depends on the tradeoff between the energy saved by reducing travel and the energy spent heating/cooling/running individual home offices. On the other hand, many countries are dealing with ageing populations. Self-driving cars will give the elderly and the disabled a level of autonomy that…

Post by unoti » Mon, Jan 03, 2011, 11:45 PM UTC

dagw wrote: post #87

nowarninglabel wrote: post #73

Did no one stop to think about this? It is extremely far-fetched at best. >safety regulations could be greatly relaxed. No, at least not if the author's vision of 200mph average speeds is to be taken. When a mistake or malfunction happens at that speed, safety mechanisms will be imperative. Furthermore, having a mechanical car does not prevent: someone else running into you, a deer running in front of the car, etc. >…

do you see parents sticking their 6 year olds on the subway just because they can? Maybe not 6, but certainly 8 year olds are quite capable of using public transport and happily do so in many parts of the world. I know I was taking the bus to the library when I was 8 or 9 and the train into town when I was 10, and that wasn't strange in the slightest.

Post by feral » Mon, Jan 03, 2011, 11:54 PM UTC

maeon3 wrote: post #14

Self driving cars are 15 years away. The self driving cars will have to deal with the chaotic human drivers, and this will require Strong AI. Once we have this, driving around will be one of the small issues of the day.