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Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

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Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#51

Post by noobermin »

BurningFrog wrote: post #23
xt00 wrote: post #12

A couple of facts that should at least provide a baseline for costs (like the best case scenario): Shenzhen metro: 198 stations, about 180 miles of track (soon to be more like 250 miles), majority of it built in past 10-12 years. All I can find so far on cost is the phase iii cost which says it will cost about 20 billion. Phase I was quite small. So maybe they have spent about 30 billion to get almost 200 miles of ra…

In China the purpose of infrastructure projects is to get infrastructure. In the US the purpose of infrastructure projects is to enrich everyone associated with the project.

Ideas like this which are politically charged but plausible explanations also square with the GAO's failure to make a satisfactory report. Perhaps certain interests tugged on people which tugged on others and ended up watering down the GAO's report. If it weren't true, at the very least the report could dispell/falsify the notion that widespread corruption were to blame. But instead, we get neither.

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#52

Post by ip26 »

ambicapter wrote: post #17

> The usual way you produce journalism or policy research on a technical question like this is that you hire someone with expertise in journalism or public policy to produce a report. That person calls up relevant experts and asks them to talk, for free, about their areas of expertise. This is one of the great perks of my job: I call up lawyers and other professionals who ordinarily charge hundreds of dollars an hour…

They can hardly become a subject matter expert, the same way a jury can't. But they can compare the information different sources provided, research the reliability of a source, etc. It's ridiculous to think the only acceptable way of finding information is to do it yourself, especially if you don't happen to personally be a small army of accountants.

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#53

Post by legitster »

Let alone cost, one thing that boggles my mind is how slow infrastructure building is in the US. In our area, a multi-billion dollar freeway or subway line will often be constructed with 5 days of a single 8-hour shift. I get that certain work needs to be done at night, but surely the work sites shouldn't sit empty for 16 hours a day!

Just think about the cost of equipment being rented, the overhead that is on salary, the amount of work to startup and shutdown the site for the day, and the opportunity cost lost by not having it done 2-3x as fast.

It's seems like it would be a no-brainer to have 3x the workers and get the job done in 1/3 the time.

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#54

Post by dsr_ »

xt00 wrote: post #39
xt00 wrote: post #12

A couple of facts that should at least provide a baseline for costs (like the best case scenario): Shenzhen metro: 198 stations, about 180 miles of track (soon to be more like 250 miles), majority of it built in past 10-12 years. All I can find so far on cost is the phase iii cost which says it will cost about 20 billion. Phase I was quite small. So maybe they have spent about 30 billion to get almost 200 miles of ra…

With all the bright minds on hacker news i honestly think we could make this report ourselves.. I wonder if there are good sources for this info? The trend for more people moving to cities would seem that everything is moving in the direction of making infrastructure projects at least in cities more reasonable for every passing year. So seems like a worthwhile effort.

We are notoriously unable to estimate the time required to complete software projects. Most of us have zero practical knowledge of civil engineering.

Expertise in one field does not automatically confer expertise in another.

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#55

Post by noobermin »

sremani wrote: post #35
BurningFrog wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In China the purpose of infrastructure projects is to get infrastructure. In the US the purpose of infrastructure projects is to enrich everyone associated with the project.

No China infrastructure project is laden with just different kind of political strings. In US the system has to impress up on voters, unions, donors etc. In China the hogs at the trough are just different.

You say that but they get things done while we build nice mansions for contractors instead.

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#56

Post by lemoncucumber »

erentz wrote: post #47

I don’t fully buy that we can’t work this out. The author gives examples of how it’s difficult to compare, but what those examples show is that yes, to compare properly you need to go very deep on some parts to find out why design decisions were made the way they were. This may be more time consuming and cost more but it’s doable. One other thing we might try is to set aside a hundred billion dollars for a half dozen…

> I don’t fully buy that we can’t work this out. The author gives examples of how it’s difficult to compare, but what those examples show is that yes, to compare properly you need to go very deep on some parts to find out why design decisions were made the way they were. This may be more time consuming and cost more but it’s doable.

That's exactly what the author is advocating for, so I'm not sure what your point is. Heck, the last line of the article is "It would be worth paying to get the answers even if that would be very expensive."

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#57

Post by noobermin »

bps4484 wrote: post #21
notadoc wrote: post #15

Really? Are we sure we can't figure this out? Who believes that? Private contractors seem to be very expensive. No-bid contracts are obviously not competitive. And when the tax payer is picking up the bill, is there really any incentive for a contractor to keep costs low? Who advocates for the taxpayer? And how much corruption, kick-backs, lobbying, political favoring, porking, and other questionable activity goes on…

But wouldn't all those same problems you outline be the case in other countries? I think the question isn't "Why are infra costs so high?" which I think your list answers, but instead "Why are infra costs so high in the united states ?"

Bribery is legalized in the US in the form of campaign contributions. In fact, the Supreme Court determined it was speech, something whose freedom is enshrined in the constitution.

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#58

Post by arthur5005 »

I’m surprised by the cynicism here. Working in software we know that high complexity projects are _really_ hard to estimate.

Hofstadter's Law says it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.

Too many unknown unknowns. If the projects were broken down into smaller chunks, the incremental costs would be better understood as the project progressed.

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#59

Post by [deleted] »

lemoncucumber wrote: post #56
erentz wrote: post #47

I don’t fully buy that we can’t work this out. The author gives examples of how it’s difficult to compare, but what those examples show is that yes, to compare properly you need to go very deep on some parts to find out why design decisions were made the way they were. This may be more time consuming and cost more but it’s doable. One other thing we might try is to set aside a hundred billion dollars for a half dozen…

> I don’t fully buy that we can’t work this out. The author gives examples of how it’s difficult to compare, but what those examples show is that yes, to compare properly you need to go very deep on some parts to find out why design decisions were made the way they were. This may be more time consuming and cost more but it’s doable. That's exactly what the author is advocating for, so I'm not sure what your point is.…

[deleted]

Re: Why We Can’t Figure Out Why Infrastructure Is So Expensive

#60

Post by afarrell »

daenz wrote: post #43
tomohawk wrote: post #36

A family member in the DOT told me this as but one of many tales of woe. Several hundred miles of an interstate were going to be rehabbed. There was a proven technique to redo the joints between the concrete slabs, which were in good shape. A contractor was hired to do a small number of miles as a test, but they had a learning curve. The first few joints that they redid were not done well, but they rapidly improved a…

The further you are removed from "other people" with regards to "other people's money", the easier it is to waste/pocket/embezzle. Fixing that problem would go a long way.

The solution to that problem in many places is currently to have lists of approved suppliers.
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