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China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

wsj.com

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Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#41

Post by east2west »

plussed_reader wrote: post #29
RidingPegasus wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> given China's population growth Their population growth is lower than most of the West, some argue it even contracted last year. Why is everyone on this site so wildly misinformed about the largest country on Earth? Is this a US thing? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/ch...

The detriments of the one child policy are well documented. Positive growth and negative growth both inform on the overall birth rate. Also, largest country on Earth? I do believe China is #4 after Russia, Canada, and the US in terms of SquareKM.

Wiki says China is the third largest, after Russia, Canada. US is the fourth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen...

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#42

Post by AFascistWorld »

onetimemanytime wrote: post #9
ajflores1604 wrote: post #2

This video from last year was pretty eye opening to me. Shows uninhabited "new" ghost cities completely crumbling. There's no underlying value to the property bubble going on over there and the scale seems mind blowing. https://youtu.be/XopSDJq6w8E

wow! Quality has a lot to do but also a house no one lives in has a tendency to be run down. A small thing that can be noticed on day one will ruin everything after 3 years of rain, wind, snow etc. Now their GDP will increase again, if they start repairing the ghost houses ;)

It's all concrete, they don't use wood.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#43

Post by RidingPegasus »

plussed_reader wrote: post #29
RidingPegasus wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> given China's population growth Their population growth is lower than most of the West, some argue it even contracted last year. Why is everyone on this site so wildly misinformed about the largest country on Earth? Is this a US thing? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/ch...

The detriments of the one child policy are well documented. Positive growth and negative growth both inform on the overall birth rate. Also, largest country on Earth? I do believe China is #4 after Russia, Canada, and the US in terms of SquareKM.

One-child policy is long gone though. A two-child policy exists perhaps for some. The article does an excellent job summing up the demographic hurdles they face.

I personally think any country that can economically prosper without resorting to unsustainable population growth or environmental damage should be congratulated on the world stage.

China is managing to do one of those things.

Technological advancement should be the focus of developed nations wanting to thrive without taking the easy gdp heroin hit of over-populating, which is essentially unaccounted future debt heaped upon younger generations.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#44

Post by jdietrich »

ajflores1604 wrote: post #2

This video from last year was pretty eye opening to me. Shows uninhabited "new" ghost cities completely crumbling. There's no underlying value to the property bubble going on over there and the scale seems mind blowing. https://youtu.be/XopSDJq6w8E

A lot of "ghost cities" that were reported on in the Western press are now thriving communities. Although some major property development schemes do end up becoming white elephants (particularly in the poorer north), most "ghost cities" aren't abandoned, they're just in the process of becoming occupied. Properties in China are normally sold as a bare undecorated shell, which makes new developments look derelict to western eyes. Clearly many of these projects are of dubious quality, but that problem is by no means unique to China.

https://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/09/24/chinas-ghost-...

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/02/new-build-home...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47826166

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#46

Post by deehouie »

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch...

I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western media bias", but if you look at the facts, it's hard to see otherwise.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#47

Post by rorykoehler »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13
onetimemanytime wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wow! Quality has a lot to do but also a house no one lives in has a tendency to be run down. A small thing that can be noticed on day one will ruin everything after 3 years of rain, wind, snow etc. Now their GDP will increase again, if they start repairing the ghost houses ;)

Actually, most buildings constructed in the last 10 years in big cities are expected to only last 20-30 years before being razed and redone. Chinese construction technique leverages cheap surplus uneducated labor, so they overbuild on concrete to compensate, meaning the buildings will fall apart faster anyways. The officials see this as a feature: real estate is just a huge jobs program, and the fact that they have t…

I live in a HDB in Singapore and they are rock solid buildings. Way better than any of the apartment buildings I've lived in in the west. They are designed to be inhabited for 99 years (the length of the leasehold). I wouldn't be surprised if many are capable of lasting much longer.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#48

Post by RidingPegasus »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #28
RidingPegasus wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm talking about this figure. Asking for evidence to the contrary that it's not 6.3%. If so what do you think it is? 3%? 2%? Perhaps 6.1%? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-l...

Newer research says it could be half the 6.3%. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/bpea_20... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/c...

Thanks, which page or figure on the Brookings pdf should I be looking at?

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#49

Post by stunt »

deehouie wrote: post #46

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western…

Don’t underestimate what media can do.

One could argue that’s the power of media. If media publishes uncountable number of articles, sure investors and politicians will follow.

Obviously there are more than one reason on the table.

One being nobody wants too much power at Chinese hand and many countries are just worried about it. (This alone can have a lot of valid and invalid reasons)

Second is of course now some other countries are following a similar strategy to compete. Like India and a few other countries in East Asia.

Third, one strategy doesn’t scale forever.

And perhaps many more.

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