Can someone tell me how the WSJ arrived at $13,888.96 for China's GDP per capita in 2018? Did they just make it up?
China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
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Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#22China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. What was the last time the US grew at even close to that rate?
I think given China’s population growth, if the GDP doesn’t grow 6%, its considered a recession for them.
> given China's population growth
Their population growth is lower than most of the West, some argue it even contracted last year. Why is everyone on this site so wildly misinformed about the largest country on Earth? Is this a US thing?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/ch...
Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually, most buildings constructed in the last 10 years in big cities are expected to only last 20-30 years before being razed and redone. Chinese construction technique leverages cheap surplus uneducated labor, so they overbuild on concrete to compensate, meaning the buildings will fall apart faster anyways. The officials see this as a feature: real estate is just a huge jobs program, and the fact that they have t…
Only tangentiao related but funny story. While visiting a college campus in China in 2012 our tour guide remarked about one of the dorm buildings... "This building is very old! Built in the 1980s!". I thought that was funny after growing up in New England.
I grew up in New England, visited historic sites like the Jamestown, Colonial Williamsburg, Castillo de San Marcos. I went to France and stayed in a house that was older than all of them, went to England and drank in a pub yet older.
Time is relative.
Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#24This video from last year was pretty eye opening to me. Shows uninhabited "new" ghost cities completely crumbling. There's no underlying value to the property bubble going on over there and the scale seems mind blowing. https://youtu.be/XopSDJq6w8E
> There's no underlying value to the property bubble
Feels just like home :)
Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
wow! Quality has a lot to do but also a house no one lives in has a tendency to be run down. A small thing that can be noticed on day one will ruin everything after 3 years of rain, wind, snow etc. Now their GDP will increase again, if they start repairing the ghost houses ;)
Actually, most buildings constructed in the last 10 years in big cities are expected to only last 20-30 years before being razed and redone. Chinese construction technique leverages cheap surplus uneducated labor, so they overbuild on concrete to compensate, meaning the buildings will fall apart faster anyways. The officials see this as a feature: real estate is just a huge jobs program, and the fact that they have t…
It's the same in Japan, homes aren't made to last, you're only expected to get a few decades out of them. My Japanese friends in Sydney always found it bemusing that I lived in a 100+ year old house. It was hard for them to fathom doing that, even with renovations. The newer the better.
Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#26Can someone tell me how the WSJ arrived at $13,888.96 for China's GDP per capita in 2018? Did they just make it up?
I hate pseudo accurate numbers like this. Saying it’s likely $13-14k makes more sense to me
Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#27Funny comment I saw on Twitter: you know things are really bad in China when even their own made-up figures aren't great
Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
China has been cooking the books on their GDP for years: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-admits-its-statistics-...
I'm talking about this figure. Asking for evidence to the contrary that it's not 6.3%. If so what do you think it is? 3%? 2%? Perhaps 6.1%? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-l...
Newer research says it could be half the 6.3%.
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/bpea_20...
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/c...
Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think given China’s population growth, if the GDP doesn’t grow 6%, its considered a recession for them.
> given China's population growth Their population growth is lower than most of the West, some argue it even contracted last year. Why is everyone on this site so wildly misinformed about the largest country on Earth? Is this a US thing? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/ch...
The detriments of the one child policy are well documented. Positive growth and negative growth both inform on the overall birth rate.
Also, largest country on Earth? I do believe China is #4 after Russia, Canada, and the US in terms of SquareKM.
Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
> China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. It's not clear to me the extent one can trust the official numbers from China.
Would you like to provide some evidence to the contrary for that or just a general "It's probably not true"? You could say the same about Western government debt that's creatively accounted, unemployment rates which avoid underemployment/participation and inflation which desperately needs to remain low to keep bond rates from bankrupting public balance sheets.
Here are a couple western think tanks who evaluated recent Chinese economic stats - CSIS in particular comprehensively reverse engineered Chinese GDP reporting from ground up- and concluded China is (1 trillion USD) larger than official numbers purports to be.
Whole "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak” Sun Tzu thing.
Broken Abacus? A More Accurate Gauge of China's Economy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOxIJMjZOUo&
Louis-Vincent Gave: China- myths, propaganda and realities | SKAGEN New Year Conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9hFAlqKmfM