India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped • Hacker News Board

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#141

Post by sanxiyn » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:07 PM UTC

rjf72 wrote: post #88

lewisjoe wrote: post #36

Folks who suggest dealing with poverty before launching machines to space: the economy doesn't work like that, FYI. If a country acquires deep technical know-how on engineering, it means the country can use it to spin out new industries and export that utility. That is how a country makes money. After world war II, Germany didn't give away all the remaining money to war survivors. They built rock-solid airplane engin…

Computers are an even better example. Their early usages were incredibly primitive, limited, and astronomically expensive. You had governments dropping very large amounts of money on what were glorified calculators. If you would have even suggested that these 'computing machines' would lead to what we have today, it would have sounded like fantasy. The most remarkable thing is that the transition from effectively no…

I have a lot of reasons to suspect "colonize other planets" or any such things won't happen in less than a lifetime. Unlike computing, physical challenge is daunting, and economic challenge is more so. As saying goes, if we would colonize Mars, why aren't we colonizing Antarctica, which is infinitely easier?

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#142

Post by Kranar » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:09 PM UTC

thetruthseeker1 wrote: post #129

When US was spending billions on Minuteman and Apollo missions, there were many problems in America, including poverty. Not sure? ask the African Americans in the south from that time. However, very little energy was spent on questioning whether spending in space was right thing to do. If developing countries spend a miniscule of their budget ( ISRO budget less than 2%), there is cynicism. I think what India is doing…

>However, very little energy was spent on questioning whether spending in space was right thing to do.

There was considerable energy spent questioning it and the project was almost scrapped numerous times. It also never had the support of the majority of Americans at any point until the actual launch itself:

https://www.academia.edu/179045/_Public_Opinion_Polls_and_Pe...

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#143

Post by adventured » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:10 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #124

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Continued catch-up growth seems the most likely possibility Statistically speaking, this is unlikely. Not having concentrated natural resources helps. But the base odds around development economics are precarious. The most likely outcome is populist collapse, mass emigration and developmental reversal. Only vigilance can guard against that. If India’s populace starts believing growth or stable stagnation are the mo…

This is incorrect. Most likely, India will continue to grow. Most countries not in the resource curse (and even many with it) have continued to grow.

> Most countries not in the resource curse (and even many with it) have continued to grow.

Britain has seen zero net economic growth since 2006 (that's before any inflation adjustment). That's true of most of developed Europe. France's GDP is not much higher than it was in 2007, without an inflation adjustment (in real terms they've seen at least 20% contraction, plausibly worse given the currency debasement that has gone on since then).

Finland and Denmark, two of the nicest, most highly educated countries in world history, have seen zero net economic expansion since 2008. Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands also fall into that box (the Netherlands economy is smaller in nominal terms than it was in 2008; in real terms it's at least 20-25% smaller).

Germany, the engine of Europe, has seen somewhere between very little and zero real net economic expansion since 2008 ($3.75t economy in 2008, $4t economy in 2018).

Japan has seen zero net economic growth since 1994, a quarter century. Japan is a highly advanced, low crime, high education, high standard of living, high skill nation.

Indonesia was a boom economy and is generally consider a high growth potential economy. Yet their economy is not much larger today than it was in 2011 (~$900b in 2011, $1t today). With even a small inflation adjustment it has seen close to zero net growth.

Russia has seen zero net economic growth for a decade. The same is true for Belarus.

Many other middle income countries in Europe, like Czech or Hungary, have seen close to zero net economic growth for a decade.

The Greek economy has been reset back to where it was around 2003.

Ukraine has seen zero net economic growth since ~1989 approximately.

Egypt's economy is approximately where it was in 2011.

Nigeria's economy hasn't net expanded since 2011 ($411b in 2011, $397b in 2018; and it has considerably contracted since 2014; they partially fall under resource curse though).

Brazil has seen zero net economic growth since 2009-2010.

Mexico has seen almost zero net economic growth since 2007 (all population expansion, zero per capita growth); on an inflation adjusted basis, it is zero or negative.

Turkey has seen zero net economic growth since 2007 ($764b economy in 2007; $766b in 2018).

South Africa has seen zero net economic growth since 2010.

Growth is anything but a given.

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#144

Post by sanxiyn » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:11 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #138

thetruthseeker1 wrote: post #129

When US was spending billions on Minuteman and Apollo missions, there were many problems in America, including poverty. Not sure? ask the African Americans in the south from that time. However, very little energy was spent on questioning whether spending in space was right thing to do. If developing countries spend a miniscule of their budget ( ISRO budget less than 2%), there is cynicism. I think what India is doing…

> However, very little energy was spent on questioning whether spending in space was right thing to do. That's not true. Public opinion about the moon missions was divided throughout the whole program, and a lot of effort was spent debating it. It is only in retrospect that it seems like a no-brainer, because everyone who was against it has been forgotten and we know it was a success.

I don't think it is a no-brainer even in retrospect. Much of it was cold war idiocy.

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#145

Post by technofiend » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:12 PM UTC

astazangasta wrote: post #132

technofiend wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you develop technology devoted to getting things up into orbit, it will basically give you the expertise to do that. The key word being devoted of course. If you fail to acknowledge any benefits from the space program other than getting things into orbit, then yes it'll be hard to see any value in space exploration beyond doing it for its own sake, which you may or may not see any value in since you yourself label…

It's not a hand wave - my argument is that those things could all be better developed, and indeed have been, by programs that are directly focused on that kind of technology development. Ancillary technologies are nice, but why settle for ancillary development that MIGHT yield things that are useful, instead of directly focusing your technology development on those useful things in the first place?

Because you get the benefits of space exploration and the secondary benefits as well. For those that support space exploration that's enough. For those that view space exploration as a fetishistic waste of money I don't know what could possibly convince them otherwise. It'd be interesting to know.

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#146

Post by meruru » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:12 PM UTC

sanxiyn wrote: post #141

rjf72 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Computers are an even better example. Their early usages were incredibly primitive, limited, and astronomically expensive. You had governments dropping very large amounts of money on what were glorified calculators. If you would have even suggested that these 'computing machines' would lead to what we have today, it would have sounded like fantasy. The most remarkable thing is that the transition from effectively no…

I have a lot of reasons to suspect "colonize other planets" or any such things won't happen in less than a lifetime. Unlike computing, physical challenge is daunting, and economic challenge is more so. As saying goes, if we would colonize Mars, why aren't we colonizing Antarctica, which is infinitely easier?

That's an interesting question. Why aren't we? I figure we basically already have technology-wise so there's not any research left to do and we have no reason to actually move there yet.

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#147

Post by vthallam » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:21 PM UTC

taarushv wrote: post #98

rounce wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India may have some kind of democracy but it's far that enjoyed in a western European nation. The open support by some BJP politicians for the lynch mobs and killers of Muslims and Dalits is unconscionable.

40% of BJP members of parliment have criminal records/charges against them. Including murder and rape. I'm Indian but I've lost faith in Indian politicians years ago. Only way I see a reform coming about is if more of the youth view politics as a viable/worthy career path. Right now, the lunatic amount of emphasis on Engineering/Science paths to highschool kids is draining all talent. Source: https://economictimes.in…

> the lunatic amount of emphasis on Engineering/Science paths to highschool kids is draining all talent.

What does this even mean? Politicians with criminal cases against them(not convicted) in India is as old as 1947. It's very easy to charge someone and shift the burden to the charged person that they prove themselves innocent.

That doesn't mean there aren't bad people, it just takes a lot of time before this changes. Singling out a single party on a forum where little people have cultural context just shows the bias.

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#148

Post by melling » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:33 PM UTC

dmix wrote: post #122

scotchmi_st wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that irritates me more than anything about the argument that sending people to space is a bad idea is the unique bias people have against space technologies. No-one ever says "We spend billions on Football; let's spend it on poor people instead", or "We spend billions on the music and film industries, let's shut those down and instead tax everyone for the average entertainment spend and send the proceeds to…

The difference is people voluntarily pay for football tickets and TV/online subscriptions. Same with music. They are self sustaining industries. Experimental space flight is coming directly from tax payers and public funding. I still think it’s a worthy use of public funds because we get so much out of it that is intangible while supporting both scientific research and some of the most advanced R&D work on the planet…

“They are self sustaining industries.”

So, you don’t know about all the subsidies for stadiums, etc?

https://money.cnn.com/2015/01/30/news/companies/nfl-taxpayer...

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#149

Post by tigershark » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:36 PM UTC

wozniacki wrote: post #105

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just a matter of time No, it’s not. The middle income trap is treacherous. I am optimistic for India. But there will be struggles and sacrifices; ascendency is far from inevitable.

Could you elaborate on this middle income trap? Have other nations fallen victim to this trap, in the recent past - say 30-50 years or so? I fully agree that ascendancy or primacy is far from inevitable and am generally far less optimistic than you , in these things. But could you shed light on what sorts of factors prevented a nation similar in its growth spurt from continued growth? What kneecapped them?

Venezuela? Argentina? I think there are plenty of examples.

Re: India is sending a rover to the moon, and the country is pumped

#150

Post by karthikb » Sun, Jul 14, 2019, 9:40 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #138

thetruthseeker1 wrote: post #129

When US was spending billions on Minuteman and Apollo missions, there were many problems in America, including poverty. Not sure? ask the African Americans in the south from that time. However, very little energy was spent on questioning whether spending in space was right thing to do. If developing countries spend a miniscule of their budget ( ISRO budget less than 2%), there is cynicism. I think what India is doing…

> However, very little energy was spent on questioning whether spending in space was right thing to do. That's not true. Public opinion about the moon missions was divided throughout the whole program, and a lot of effort was spent debating it. It is only in retrospect that it seems like a no-brainer, because everyone who was against it has been forgotten and we know it was a success.

See “Whitey on the Moon” for a great example of then-contemporary debate over the nation’s priorities.